bearvest Posted October 2, 2004 Report Share Posted October 2, 2004 In the Top Zone Move Goes Parabolic Your Golden Stool, including short and long term updated charts and price targets, is loaded. Even if you are not a goldbug, you should check out the Golden Stool. It's in your Anals daily. Take a subscribatory and download the Golden Stool RIGHT NOW! 30 Day Intro Subscribatory. Just $16.99! Get In RIGHT NOW! True enough..... but are we in a top zone? Double top zone: Here's the chart for the July 26th rally. I've posted several charts saying that once this rally was complete, we'd complete C of the A-B-C rally of May 10th and nose dive in a huge B wave that could carry to 70 XAU and around 163 HUI ( a revised target from 154). Well, as the chart below indicates we hit that top Thursday afternoon. But we did so in a 5th wave extension. A 5th wave should subdivide into 5 waves. This 5th did so as shown in the red roman numeral count. But the 5th extended for 3 additional days. This is a rare phenonenon for an ending pattern. Usually, the 4th wave creates a decline in all the usual technical trend, momentum, and strenght indicators. As the 5th completes, divergences should be apparent. This is certainly not the case with an extended 5th. Bullishness persists, especially in the Juniors--CDE and BGO to name 2 HUI components. What happens is a double top. It takes on last distributive decline, to the start of the extension--221.12 HUI and 98.72 XAU. It rallies to only a marginal new high, and then collapses to a point below these numbers. The Elliott pattern is in the frame below, which I posted earlier in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearvest Posted October 2, 2004 Report Share Posted October 2, 2004 Here's the count on the pattern chart below: 1. 187.90 2. 179.41 3. 211.21 4. 196.57 dotted line and a 221.12 top ??? But 230.13 marked the 61.8% retracement of the entire January/May decline, so we're close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anjing bau Posted October 2, 2004 Report Share Posted October 2, 2004 BV.... thx kindly for the analysis... I appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whadda I Do Whadda I Do Posted October 3, 2004 Report Share Posted October 3, 2004 Been buying jrs on the up moves instead of having to ride them down then up as in the past. i.e. CDE BGO DROOY Ready to sell anytime on a correction, for profit or entire holdings if need be then jump back in. Weak dollar should finally favor S. African miners. Oil is just to expensive to not concern yourself with. Trickle-down costs should arrive in coming months not to mention actual price of gas at the pump. Bought DROOY at 2 bucks this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearvest Posted October 3, 2004 Report Share Posted October 3, 2004 XAU: My Elliott analysis says Judjement Day is nigh: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearvest Posted October 3, 2004 Report Share Posted October 3, 2004 . Weak dollar should finally favor S. African miners. Bought DROOY at 2 bucks this time around. Dollar weakness is bad news for the S. Africans. Here's the syllogism. Dollar down, Gold price up. Dollar down, Rand up. Rand up, Cost of Production up. Vicious circle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearvest Posted October 3, 2004 Report Share Posted October 3, 2004 . Weak dollar should finally favor S. African miners. Bought DROOY at 2 bucks this time around. Dollar weakness is bad news for the S. Africans. Here's the syllogism. Dollar down, Gold price up. Dollar down, Rand up. Rand up, Cost of Production up. Vicious circle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butterfield 8 Posted October 3, 2004 Report Share Posted October 3, 2004 BV - I thought you said top was 99 to 104. Your chart circle looks like 105 to 115. hell, if it's 115, might as well buy more now. at 101. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moon Man Posted October 3, 2004 Report Share Posted October 3, 2004 . Weak dollar should finally favor S. African miners. Bought DROOY at 2 bucks this time around. Dollar weakness is bad news for the S. Africans. Here's the syllogism. Dollar down, Gold price up. Dollar down, Rand up. Rand up, Cost of Production up. Vicious circle Well I think it is not that simple. Firstly it depends what Dollar measure one takes. (cash or Dollar index) But that's admittedly a minor issue. Further... WIDW: Dollar weakness is generally good for gold miners who have their expenses in US Dollars, and often good for the sector in general. However, if Dollar weakness translates into Rand strength, then it might not be good for SA miners for the reasons BV pointed out. BV: I agree that Rand strength is generally not good for SA miners, but it does NOT mean that the Rand strength always comes with Dollar weakness. (or vice versa) In fact the correlations between the Rand, the Dollar and gold have been rather complex over the last few years. Dollar weakness can occur with a rising gold price in Rand terms. The only thing it requires is that Dollar weakness occurs relative to other currencies than the Rand. The assumption that Dollar weakness (or strength for that matter) consistently manifests itself lineair against all currencies equally, and at the same time, is obviousely flawed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moon Man Posted October 3, 2004 Report Share Posted October 3, 2004 XAU: My Elliott analysis says Judjement Day is nigh: I appreciate that you take the time to point out your views. Interesting stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moon Man Posted October 3, 2004 Report Share Posted October 3, 2004 All those candles were hammers, signalling a bottom, and every day closing back up above the 0.85 support. We now have a minor reversal though, with a shooting star counterattack, possibly an evening star. Luminous ! Pretty interesting to see that quite a number of traders here pay attention to candlestick analysis. I've read into it but am far from an expert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moon Man Posted October 3, 2004 Report Share Posted October 3, 2004 As to the fundamentals, not only is/was it hard to keep general faith in the sector in this age of disinformation, but judging these smallcaps remains quite difficult because of lack of information. Diversification is important in juniors, and specialized newsletters do help. I agree PG. It's also possible that good quality juniors remain undiscovered for quite some time, so things may take a while. As far as the diversification concerned, what would you consider the ideal spread among juniors? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moon Man Posted October 3, 2004 Report Share Posted October 3, 2004 TFH, yes, the juniors go nowhere while the mid-tiers go up 50%, then it doubles while they go up another 25%. Or not. You never know. Is it not going up because they have nothing, and its worthless, or is it not going up but will double next week? Impossible to tell. Ander, thanks for some excellent comments. I think you touch on something interesting here. There are two important rotations during the pms rallies, IMO. The first is, as you mention, from larger into smaller caps. And secondely from quality into crap.....And yes, microcaps can do anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ageka Posted October 3, 2004 Report Share Posted October 3, 2004 Also John 123 thinks a 5th wave could be coming ( HUI ) http://trending123.com/annotated/100304.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traderfromhell Posted October 3, 2004 Report Share Posted October 3, 2004 I think the Rand has finally topped out and a small position in a stock like DROOY held for the long term will pay very large dividends. I still think most investment capital earmarked for pm stocks would do best spread among a collection of good silver and gold mining companies. I like EGO BGO GLG and in silver SSRI WTZ PAAS and GRS. If you don't like stock picking you could use USERX and maybe some funds in Profund's 150% long the XAU would be a good choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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