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Mark's Thread For The Weak End


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If we start up tomorrow, I would not expect it to rally (spx) past 880 early in the week and then fall apart later in the week. Target 836.

Just above Zoran's 835. That would complete 5 waves down and would set up an abc for a week, IMHO, that abc will lead to wave 3 of 3 Down into late march.

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from marketclues.net

 

Shorter Term: The market is ripe for a retracement rally which could recoup up to 78% of losses off the mid-January high. The rally is a wave 2 within a five-wave thrust decline out of the long term contracting triangle, with a powerful wave 3 decline to follow. Investors should be investing very conservatively until the expected low in the middle of March (the Ides of March stock market buying opportunity).

 

Sentiment had been stubbornly bullish in the OEX pit all week until Friday. Fear finally triumphed over denial on Friday as the OEX ratio jumped into the overly-bearish zone, signaling a turn up within a day or two. At the same time, the QQQ ratio, which had been weighted very heavily toward put buying, demonstrated again that QQQ option traders are sometimes very in tune with the market. By Friday, in contrast to the OEX numbers, QQQ traders were leaning slightly toward call buying.

 

Since we appear to be starting the up-phase in the 16.15-day time cycle, this countertrend rally in stocks should carry the market fitfully higher into next month. The Monthly Buying Spree officially starts on Thursday and runs for five trading days. This is the time of the month when pension fund contributions tend to be put to work buying stocks, contributing to a minor monthly seasonal tendency to rally.

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The $SOX broke down through the neckline on Friday. I think there may be a retest of the neckline from underneath before a plummet. Wishful thinking? I got my popcorn and pepsi, kicking back in my bear chair, ready to watch them supermodels start to sag. Oops, there goes one strap... :lol:

post-7-1043638450.gif

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