alceringa Posted February 27, 2009 Report Share Posted February 27, 2009 I have never used a Fisher Transform (sounds like a Playskool toy). Fisher was a farmer, (actually an agricultural scientist.) He made major contributions to both genetics and statistics and was one of the most important scientists of the 20the century. Sir Ronald Aylmer Fisher, FRS (17 February 1890 – 29 July 1962) was an English statistician, evolutionary biologist, and geneticist. He was described by Anders Hald as "a genius who almost single-handedly created the foundations for modern statistical science" and Richard Dawkins described him as "the greatest of Darwin's successors". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unSane Posted February 27, 2009 Report Share Posted February 27, 2009 Today is the last day of the quarter. The extreme lows of the last crash (Nov) had been mitigated when the last quarter ended, so many investors looking at their quarterly statements probably never realized just how much they were down at one point. This quarter is going to end low. Maybe they will paint the tape to try for a less-terrible-close, but at this point they're fighting traffic. Next time their clients open those envelopes, there's going to be a wave of selling IMO. Now is a pretty good time to get short I think. (That ES short and the FAZ I was holding looking pretty good given the futures... ES at 743 right now, down about 10) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swordfish Posted February 27, 2009 Report Share Posted February 27, 2009 Just found couple minutes to check the indices. Its all good. ES.F hit 741.30 the move to 743.50. German DAX is falling, with 3,28% now. USDJPY and EURJPY falling, jpy geting stronger. there should be a nice gap today and the break of the november's low at S&P500 Yeah OPEN THE HELL GATE:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unSane Posted February 27, 2009 Report Share Posted February 27, 2009 Fisher transform is awesome. It replaces stochastics, MACD and RSI for me. It's pretty much the only indicator I use apart from price (duh). Fisher changing direction with a TL break is a great signal. I like to stack them up with different periods. The reason it works is that it transforms the non-gaussian movements of the market into a roughly gaussian distribution. The market tends to spend most of its time at gaussian extremes and very little of its time moving between them. The Fisher smooths that out and makes it more gaussian, which makes the signals much easier to read. It is very similar to the sigma function you use as the input to a neural network so the little brain cells can figure out what's going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted February 27, 2009 Report Share Posted February 27, 2009 Angry Bear reads the smoke signals from the Citi rescue bunker. Dilute and cramdown and pray are the latest features. http://angrybear.blogspot.com/2009/02/trea...citi.html#links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swordfish Posted February 27, 2009 Report Share Posted February 27, 2009 Citigroup to Get U.S. Investment as Treasury Plans $25 Billion Stock Swap http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home ES.F 740!!!!!!!!!!! Good morning America!!!! it's gonna be a nice day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 27, 2009 Report Share Posted February 27, 2009 Good Morning! Welcome to Intraday Stool! Thanks to aussiebear for her daily opening! You can join the discussion by registering (PG rated user names only, please) and posting here as well. Registration is easy. Just click the Register link above, enter your email address (which you have the option to keep confidential), and enter a user name. To keep out spammers and scammers, I'll send you an email with a few Monty Python type questions. Just reply with your answers, and I'll approve your registration as soon as I receive your reply. If you have questions about how to register and post, use the Help link in the menu bar at the top of the page. If you know others who might be interested in joining us, use the email to a friend link above the thread. Many tanks for joining us! Doc Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don't find the information helpful, I'll give you a full refund. It's that simple!Click here for more information. Subscribe to the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Precious Metals Daily, just $39 quarterly. Try it risk free for 30 days! Get this indispensable daily analysis and support the Stool! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 27, 2009 Report Share Posted February 27, 2009 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2009/02/27/p...s-update-22709/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rationalize Posted February 27, 2009 Report Share Posted February 27, 2009 Fisher transform is awesome. It replaces stochastics, MACD and RSI for me. It's pretty much the only indicator I use apart from price (duh). Fisher changing direction with a TL break is a great signal. I like to stack them up with different periods. The reason it works is that it transforms the non-gaussian movements of the market into a roughly gaussian distribution. The market tends to spend most of its time at gaussian extremes and very little of its time moving between them. The Fisher smooths that out and makes it more gaussian, which makes the signals much easier to read. It is very similar to the sigma function you use as the input to a neural network so the little brain cells can figure out what's going on. :) I guess you can see from my charts above, that I also like the fisher, & stack them one above the other. Here?s a couple of serious questions though: Which chart time interval to choose? A fixed time period, or a number of ticks? On how many intervals do you see the fisher working best? I am setup mostly at 133 tick intervals, with the fisher input as 5, 10, 50 & 100 intervals. I change back to 1m intervals some times also. Any ideas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 27, 2009 Report Share Posted February 27, 2009 spy 3 day cycle projection looks 73.40-72.60 which I guess equates to about 739-731 on the SPX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 27, 2009 Report Share Posted February 27, 2009 That would be a huge gap which, if not filled within relatively short order, say a day or two, could be a breakaway gap to the downside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unSane Posted February 27, 2009 Report Share Posted February 27, 2009 ES futures just dumped about 10 points to 733. Could be a 20 point gap down. Not sure I would fade this one. (short ES from EOD yesterday!!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BusKow Posted February 27, 2009 Report Share Posted February 27, 2009 US - GDP (Q4:08) 8:30 AM US - NAPM-Chicago (Feb, 2009) 9:45 AM US - Consumer Sentiment (Feb, 2009) 9:55 AM US - Farm Prices (Feb, 2009) 3:00 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unSane Posted February 27, 2009 Report Share Posted February 27, 2009 :) I guess you can see from my charts above, that I also like the fisher, & stack them one above the other. Here?s a couple of serious questions though: Which chart time interval to choose? A fixed time period, or a number of ticks? On how many intervals do you see the fisher working best? I am setup mostly at 133 tick intervals, with the fisher input as 5, 10, 50 & 100 intervals. I change back to 1m intervals some times also. Any ideas? I like to use roughtly geometrically increasing periods. So 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 and so on. On the longer timeframes, you can pretty much trade the slope. A double bottom or double top on the Fisher is one of the most reliable signals I know. I coded a trading system based solely on the Fisher which worked well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swordfish Posted February 27, 2009 Report Share Posted February 27, 2009 US GDP -6,2% (est.-4,9%) WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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