brian4 Posted June 14, 2003 Report Share Posted June 14, 2003 Made $ shorting the Spoo futures today-went home short a small position in the Spoo's in the money. Tonite i feel like a dowser does when he finds WATER-I am tingling all over-I feel like this is it but this @#%$^ has fooled me before so I am being careful. Bob Prechter wrote what i feel is a seminal piece today in the Elliott Wave Theorist as to where we are and where we are going in the markets. Now Ol Bob unlike Hochberg carries a big stick, speaks softly and not often but when he does SPEAK is invariably right. It's late but tomorrow I will post some of his thoughts -a teaser he says " FRE and FNM are the story of the century" their troubles are beyond the ken of the markets, they will make Enron look like a pikers picnic, so it looks and smells like Schaeffers boyz who said Wednesday nite that these two were in derivative troubles were indeed right. He also made a prediction Bushie will lose by a landslide next year not because of what he has done just because of what will happen to the markets between now and then. He says it doesn't matter who or what the Dems run the public will be so pissed at what has happened Bushie will be toast-More tomorrow-trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted June 14, 2003 Report Share Posted June 14, 2003 I'm not trying to chop Doug... I read Doug and yes I agree Deflation is not the problem no sir re bob?It?s the FED and the inflationists? I guess that is code for the Floating exchange rate fractional reserve banking system or the modern upto date version of plain old ordinary fractional reserve banking? the current system had it?s beginning at ground zero when the bank of England was founded in 1694? This is an old system? Now there is talk of the way we were in his article and how wonderful it worked? Ah the good old days? But the way we were was still a fractionally reserved banking system and we got here from there because of it? here is how a fractional system works in its most simple to understand form? This is the system we depend on? Fractional reserve banking system. Phase 1 Inflation of debt or Hyperinflation of Debt, one is regulated and moves slow the other is very quick Phase 2 Once the maximum potential for the inflation or hyperinflation of debt is reached then deflation of debt begins Phase 3 Deflation of debt reaches it's maximum potential and the "Bank"ruptcy of the banks (Not the FED or it's friends) and the collapse of the economy is the result... the climax is a hyperdeflationary implosion of debt? At this stage you want to be in a position where you owe nothing but everyone has signed their life away to you. Or winning by default? The system is a win-win situation for the owners of it?Hint it is private and no government in the world is above it?for very long. The ?real? Powers that be (Owners) use it to administer the human race? Easy as 1,2,3? This is the system we all float around in it is not a fairy tale or science fiction?it is real. In 71 the US ran out of gold?(The way we were) which caused the Bretton woods gold backed fractional reserve banking system to be replaced with the Floating exchange rate fractional reserve banking system (The way we are). Debt backed by debt. The only way to pay off an old debt or service the interest on it is with new debt with interest which is equal or more than the amount of the old debt? How do you create debt in the current system? You either point a gun at buddy and say sign here and you will owe me 20% of your income for the next 30 years or? Lower interest rates? Doug mentions how the ?Reflation? has worked? I don?t see interest rates going up so Reflation has not worked wages aren?t rising and Unemployment is still going strong, all that has happened is that the beginning of the debt deflationary phase has been put off and even I said a while back that there is a long ways to go before that happens but my countdown is now only 8-12 months?hmmmm. Doug alludes to the volume of debt factor?If rates stop dropping or lol rise then the volume dries up and then look out the real hyperinflation of debt will begin right? Wrong debt deflation will take hold and will accelerate faster and faster worse and worse quicker and quicker or become HYPER deflation? When the FED talks about deflation that?s what they are taking about?and fighting it millisecond to millisecond? Ding ding ding in this corner at 33 trillion Pounds the Federal Reserve and in this corner the Black Hole at the center of the Milky Way?Good luck Nothing can be done? We are trapped in the inflate or die system based 100% on the perpetual lowering of rates to sustain it, slow our approach to economic doomsday, or milk it for as long as possible (Take you pick) until (here?s the key) maximum potential is reached and unthinkable yucky things start to happen? or I?m a retard and we are on the doorstep of a glorious age of wonderment, true bliss for mankind, the cure for all ills, and mastery of the known universe? Where?s the maximum potential? Don?t worry according to the Nobel prize all star team in economics and their models we will not see the maximum in our lifetimes hahahahaha I was worried there for a sec? Wrong? Here?s my thinking on what is the finish line? 1.Rates stop dropping? 0 is the theoretical bottom? Bankers need to eat, and 0 prime rate = 0 Prime rib 2.Rates rise, raise them at the next meeting I dare you, ha, I know... you could have a Fed Chairman for a day contest?to pick the fallguy? 3.Everyone borrows all they can borrow?or maxout 4.Everyone just gives up and refuse to sign on the dotted line and accept their fate before they make bigger fools of themselves? This is not years in the future, but above are the only solutions to the current problem or what is coming to a future very soon? Maximum potential = Jigs up, Hyperdeflationary implosion of debt to follow. Maybe if they chop the fed funds rate to just above Japan they can still say ?at least we are not Japan? just before they flip the switch on the chair? Other than that off the top of my head Doug has got it right on the money? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slinger Posted June 14, 2003 Report Share Posted June 14, 2003 Hypertiger, can you add your opinion about this quote? Thanks. Fed member: Chance of deflation 'remote' Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson said the risk posed to the USA from falling prices is ''remote,'' even as the economy's near-term outlook remains cloudy. But he suggested that should deflation become a concern, the central bank would push interest rates down to zero before attempting to use special measures -- such as pushing long-term rates by buying government securities -- to boost growth. courtesy of: USA Today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldmember Posted June 14, 2003 Report Share Posted June 14, 2003 http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/Artic...030613/wwto0614 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted June 14, 2003 Report Share Posted June 14, 2003 ITS LOTTERY TICKET TIME There is a good article by Jim Jubak over at the street:l The Lottery-Ticket StageThe stock market has entered one of those "lottery ticket" periods that come at the closing stages of all big rallies. Calculations of risk and reward that might have restrained stock prices become irrelevant in such a market. And stock prices are driven higher by investors who buy because they fear they'll miss out on the big prize. This kind of investor psychology makes the stock market extremely vulnerable to huge blowoff moves on the upside during lottery periods. And the sudden end to this psychology can leave investors just as vulnerable to big losses on the downside, when the market decides to correct or consolidate. The end of this bear rally is near- it is showing serious weariness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 14, 2003 Report Share Posted June 14, 2003 John @ TRENDING 123: Did the market go up or down today? I couldn't tell with all the new 52 week highs both in NASDAQ high beta stocks like MOGN and USNA (All time highs) and in the recommended gold stocks right from the model portfolio also on new 52 week highs...ASL, GSS, and FCX. Although others in the model portfolio were getting the same recognition early this week and over the past month. Sometimes some just take a breather before the next major up leg. Oh...when is that you ask? I'm glad you asked. http://trending123.com/annotated/chart_of__gold.htm 27-May-03 ASL--Up 6.91% 27-May-03 GOLD--Down 8.92% 28-May-03 GSS--38.58% (This trade another 20% from the last one and of course we went and bought the "dip" per the e-mail alert) 28-May-03 GFI--Up 11.57% 28-May-03 RANGY--Up 3.62% 16-May-03 HMY--Up 5.37% 6-Jun-03 GOLD--Up 2.84% 9-Jun-03 USNA--Up 25.36% 9-Jun-03 DFC--Down 3.59% 9-Jun-03 BVN--Down 1.87% 10-Jun-03 FCX--Up 5.29% 11-Jun-03 MOGN--Up 15.32% 11-Jun-03 HTCH--Up 4.67% Stopped on KLAC when yesterdays lows were taken out. But if we get momo coming back nothing says we can't try again. ON GOLD You know the crazy thing in all this? I am not even bullish "yet" on the gold sector or the gold stocks. I am excited that myself and my subscribers are making BANK in this sector but honestly it's not me who is bullish. It's the CHARTS. If it were up to me we would have never left NASDAQ 5,000. I honestly loved it. The wild moves, the crazy swings the up 50 points a day in JNPR and QCOM. It was great...until the crash. Try to think like this is 1998 but instead of NASDAQ it's "XAU, $HUI, $GOLD". We will have the wild swings, the crazy point moves and once again getting in at the bottom. This is the start of a major bull market in GOLD. I don't know why really, I know what I read and hear on the message boards and what the newsletter writers say about why but I have to say most of the time unless they have a chart about something technical that I might not have known, I move on and close the page saying to myself "Fundamentals? WHO CARES, just show me a chart that tells me in advance how market participants will REACT to the news of the fundamentals once it sinks in". The reason why is I believe all good and bad fundamentals are already in the charts and if its something significant then the charts would look ready to explode. And of course we would have a small handful of stocks within the sector or index that would already be heading in the direction of the impending move. In this case I would say those bullish on gold must be on to something because the move GOLD will make is not anything like NASDAQ 5,000 more like SP500 5,000. It's going to be that significant. And again I don't know "exactly" why, just that the charts are screaming it. So in summery, all I know is it's going "UP" and try to gather the hints as to WHEN and pass them along to you. (Much like my BIOTECH call last year in September)...As to why it will go up?....Thats another website I have no clue!....Never did figure out why the biotech's all went anyway but the hints of "goo-goo for biotech's" was screaming in the charts last year. For those that don't remember it was AMGN at 30, DNA at 28, SEPR at 7, GENZ at 23, GILD at 33, MLNM at 8, TARO at 29, TEVA at 30 and now look at them. I am coming to the conclusion that going DOWN....I need to read the clues a smidge better at times and block out more of the "noise". No ones perfect right? But going UP I always did have that down pretty good. And boy is it going to go up. The price targets are on the charts to reflect what the TECHNICALS suggest. I honestly don't know if they are worth that much from a fundamental point of view but for some reason not to far off, people are actually going to pay that much. So buy now or wait till then the choice is yours. As I frequently say on charts like SSYS and SEPR for example "Why buy now at $25.00 and $30.00+ when you couldn't stand them at $10.00?" Consider gold stocks to be like SSYS but back when it was $5.00. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted June 14, 2003 Report Share Posted June 14, 2003 Fed member: Chance of deflation 'remote' Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson said the risk posed to the USA from falling prices is ''remote,'' (as long as we keep lowering interest rates and don't run out of victims) even as the economy's near-term outlook remains cloudy.(don't worry about the long term because it is too remote) But he suggested that should (Debt)deflation become a concern (It is), the central bank would push interest rates (Fed funds) down to zero (Code for "We will drop rates to whatever it takes but not to the point that we can't keep the lights on at the FED) before attempting to use special measures (First smoke then we'll try mirrors and then both together) -- such as pushing long-term rates by buying government securities (we have been doing this since 1913 but we will buy it all if we have to, even if it will only extend the nightmare er...Happy times for a few more months) -- to boost growth (In our friends bank accounts). A don't worry be happy story so that when someone says deflation is gonna get us the answer is nope it's remote according to the all powerfull FED... Psychology has to be maintained at all costs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 14, 2003 Report Share Posted June 14, 2003 Psychology has to be maintained at all costs... Hyper: Of all the other points made with respect to the inverted debt pyramid, the only one that truly matters is American Consumer psychology. American Consumerism has been the world's engine. The extraordinary lengths to which the financial and media matrix have gone to couch all news as good news is indicative of a broken engine. We were all taught at a very early age that lying to cover up a lie only compounds the problem and at some point, the truth will come out. Presently, so many lies are being told on so many levels (and making their way into the main stream media as "truth") that when the Woodward & Bernstein style expose is written, the American Consumer will crawl deep into a hole and simply refuse to play follow-the-leader anymore. The leaders whose lies will be exposed will include our President and Vice President, our Fed Chairman and many of our leading CEOs. We will all be left to contemplate the truths we heard from the likes of Ross Perot and Warren Buffet, but chose to ignore while the punch bowl was overflowing. The point of recognition for Americans will come in a way that we do not expect. It may come when the behind-the-scenes mechanics of a SARS cover-up in the US is revealed, or when a major terrorist "event" in the US is explained away as "accidental" - only later to be revealed in vivid detail, or when the facts come out about all of the lies told to justify a war, or when Freddie and Fannie implode amid a chorus of happy talk. It will happen when whistle blowers from the inside finally develop a conscience and expose the lies for what they are. There are simply too many people who know the truth, and are bothered by keeping it to themselves. If the American Consumer loses his/her confidence in the government and the media to tell the truth, the very fabric of our society is at stake. The disillusionment we all felt when attacked on our own shores by an outside enemy will be magnified tenfold if the pyramid collapses and the lies-upon-lies of our leaders are exposed...as they will be. The truth will be told, and the behind the scenes story of the mood-control of an entire population will disgust us all. The point of recognition will not be about the market or earnings or any of that...it will come from the realization that we were used and lied to by those we trusted. Just as in a marriage where lies upon lies are ultimately exposed as the cover-up for the extramarital affair, the American Consumer's divorce from the matrix will leave the union irretrievably broken. Plunger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phatbubble Posted June 14, 2003 Report Share Posted June 14, 2003 not long now. couple weeks, tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted June 14, 2003 Report Share Posted June 14, 2003 not long now. couple weeks, tops. geocosmic signatures targeting June 24 for strong reversal, 77% CL :grin: My kids last day of school and perhaps the last day of this foolish nonsense rally! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellowstone Posted June 14, 2003 Report Share Posted June 14, 2003 Bare-ones' cover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fukui-san Posted June 14, 2003 Report Share Posted June 14, 2003 Foreign Central Banks US Investments Part of the reason for falling yields, the big foreign central banks (Japan, China, Taiwan, ... ) don't care about the Treasury and Mortage yields. To them, these are vehicles for maintaining the relative cheapness of their currencies. What a great racket. Al Capone must be spinning in his grave. You'd think that the Asians would one day wise up. Perhaps they're starting to do so: Asian Bond Fund: An Idea who time has come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeerMarket Posted June 14, 2003 Report Share Posted June 14, 2003 This PDF from Hoisington Mgmt / Lacy Hunt is from the end of last quarter, but made for good remedial debt deflation reading for me: Quarterly Review and Outlook - First Quarter 2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted June 14, 2003 Report Share Posted June 14, 2003 Bare-ones' cover perfect timing with ony 16% bears out there and corporate insiders selling at a clip faster than May's 20:1 ratio! Soon the bucket will be on the bull's head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fukui-san Posted June 14, 2003 Report Share Posted June 14, 2003 The board is "deader than Heaven on a Saturday night". Is the weather too pleasant outside or is this a symptom of the recent "Market in Bull" run-up in this bear market? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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