aussiebear Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 Early openers doing the usual sell off: Kiwis -1.8%, Aussies -1%, Japan -1.8% and Sth Korea -0.6%.Aussie sectors mostly in dump mode: Energy -3.1%, Miners -2.6% and IT -2.1%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aussiebear Posted January 18, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 https://au.finance.y...com/intlindices Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aussiebear Posted January 18, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 http://money.cnn.com...s/morning_call/http://www.kitco.comhttp://www.kitconet....ase_metals.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aussiebear Posted January 18, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 http://www.engrish.com/2014/01/work-body-again-good/ Paint set instructions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aussiebear Posted January 18, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 All Ords was in limbo for the rest of the day closing -0.7%. Sectors ranged from Consumer Staples +2.3%, Gold +1.2% down to Energy -3.4%.Over in Asia, China +0.4%, Hong Kong -1.1%, India -0.5% and Japan -1.1%. On to UK/Europe: https://au.finance.yahoo.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 The lifting of the sanctions against Iran are a mixed bag. Further pressure on oil prices, but also more revenues for western firms, but when you look at revenue figures of the time before sanctions, one will see that western firms didn't make a lot there. In a bull market the futures would be up by 30 points or so. They are not. Ergo: We are not in a bull market. Generally I miss a real big catalyst which would lead me to say that there will be a roaring bear (defined as S&P500 goes below 1.000). We could go back to 1580 in S&P500 (that's the former highs and the 38% fibo of the upmove since 2009), then we will see what happens. One has not to forget: The housing bubble was big, really big. That thing went to the core of the financial and general economic system of the US and via the interdependcy of todays world it spread world wide. The only thing I could imagine which would be that big and even bigger would be China, means if China really goes down the drain BIG TIME. Catalyst could be for example: All the economic figures out of China the last 10 years were a pure lie (which I think is true ). All other problems which come to the surface right now, are there since decades, nothing new. How is the old saying of our good Herr Doktor: "Just that an uptrend breaks, doensn't mean that prices have to fall. They can simply stay flat and meander in a tight range." That is very true and should be kept in mind by those who think that the biggest roaring bear since the 1930s is right in front of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetlag Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 I tend to agree Foxie, OTOH have the financial problems been cured or just swept under the FED's balance sheet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 The lifting of the sanctions against Iran are a mixed bag. Further pressure on oil prices, but also more revenues for western firms, but when you look at revenue figures of the time before sanctions, one will see that western firms didn't make a lot there. In a bull market the futures would be up by 30 points or so. They are not. Ergo: We are not in a bull market. Generally I miss a real big catalyst which would lead me to say that there will be a roaring bear (defined as S&P500 goes below 1.000). We could go back to 1580 in S&P500 (that's the former highs and the 38% fibo of the upmove since 2009), then we will see what happens. One has not to forget: The housing bubble was big, really big. That thing went to the core of the financial and general economic system of the US and via the interdependcy of todays world it spread world wide. The only thing I could imagine which would be that big and even bigger would be China, means if China really goes down the drain BIG TIME. Catalyst could be for example: All the economic figures out of China the last 10 years were a pure lie (which I think is true ). All other problems which come to the surface right now, are there since decades, nothing new. How is the old saying of our good Herr Doktor: "Just that an uptrend breaks, doensn't mean that prices have to fall. They can simply stay flat and meander in a tight range." That is very true and should be kept in mind by those who think that the biggest roaring bear since the 1930s is right in front of us. As I told Max Keiser, I think we have had the top to end all tops. The credit bubble is far, far larger today than it was in 2007. Confidence in the central bank con is dead and cannot be revived. Sure maybe the first leg won't be that bad, but my hunch is that it will be worse and last longer than anyone dare think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetlag Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 Shankhigh made a new low, but closed back above 2.9k (the new 3k). The Hanger OTOH closed at a new low below 19400 where I had shport in my chart at least. My target for the hanger is at least 15k now. For the Shankhigh at a bear minimum a retrace of the run up just like in '07. Charts with Friday's close The shankhigh bear minimum (hard landing) retrace 2.2k and bearish forecast (economic collapse) at 1k. And now for a great example of how NOT to trade, I'm still holding that stab long S&P and crude (UCO). My overconfidence in a SCO reversal that didn't materialize had me jumping the gun on a short squeeze that has yet to come. Even the rig count came in at just -1, lol, very bad timing. Like Doc said if there's no bear market rally at these levels then we might get a crash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 As I told Max Keiser, I think we have had the top to end all tops. The credit bubble is far, far larger today than it was in 2007. Confidence in the central bank con is dead and cannot be revived. Sure maybe the first leg won't be that bad, but my hunch is that it will be worse and last longer than anyone dare think. H O L Y crap! Loose credit conditions and cheap capital leads to misallocation of capital. The thing is: That capital was misallocated is only visible after the fact. There is a fantastic documentary called "Master of the Universe", where a german investment banker (Mr Voss) talks 90 min about how investment banking emerged in the 80s and how it came to the 2008 crisis and so on. The NYT wrote: "Mr. Voss’s metaphors pile up helplessly: Finance is like being in the army, like catching a virus and as hard to grasp as quantum particles. The film in which he appears is a vertiginous look inside the bubble behind the financial bubble, with no end in sight. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/06/movies/master-of-the-universe-a-documentary-about-stock-trading.html?_r=0 It was filmed in 2013. There is a moment in the film where he is asked if the "bankers" learned something from the financial crisis and his answer is: "NO." And exactly that is the answer why you are, good Doc, most liklely right. The necks of the investment bankers were never broken. Not in 1998, not in 2003, not in 2008. Only then, when they are finally broken, the bottom will be in. Trailer with english subtitles: In my view the film is a MUST SEE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetlag Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 Chinese National team of bagholders suffering some losses China: CSRC Chairman Xiao Gang Submitted Resignation - Reuters Comes 4hrs after Bberg reported exodus of CSRC staff http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-stocks-regulator-exclusive-idUSKCN0UW0WQ http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-18/embattled-china-securities-regulator-grapples-with-staff-exodus How long 'til others retreat and they disband? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetlag Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 This talk of biblical proportions bear market, reminds me of my bear market target on the cusp of the October '08 breakdown IIRC, it was the uptrend line from the '87 bottom on a log chart which measured to something like 8 or 7 hundred S&P points... sounded laughable at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetlag Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 The rosy scenario for this time around is a China rebalancing. If China overthrows it's dictatorship regime and turns into a democracy and starts consuming and relying less on social and environmental dumping (unfairly gained export market quota) there will be less deflationary forces on the global industry and a reflourishing of international trade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 The rosy scenario for this time around is a China rebalancing. If China overthrows it's dictatorship regime and turns into a democracy and starts consuming and relying less on social and environmental dumping (unfairly gained export market quota) there will be less deflationary forces on the global industry and a reflourishing of international trade. That's true. But right now, China is a country which controls the internet and which has a policeman at every corner. That will hardly be overthrown within a short time frame. During the process of doing that there will be massive social unrest and even civil war. One should not forget that the Chinese society is not as uniform as westerners think. Lots of different religions and ethnics. A country which dictates you how many children you have NOT to have is a VERY long way away from being democratic in a way we see it in the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tema9 Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 Respect is beaten into the Chinese from an early age, they respect people who have university qualifications, older people, people in a uniform. You can only get into a position of respect by toeing the line. So there very little chance of change in China. There are a lot of Chinese who would be lost if they had to make decisions everyday, I would say about 1,000,000,000 of them would be dysfunctional due to the stress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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