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Teetering On The Edge


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I'm with you Torah. I have a lot more buying power and I'd like to use it before the big one. Even if it's not a crash. We still have a long way to go. I didn't pull the trigger today but, there will be a bounce soon and I will load up again.

Incidently, fair value on the Spee is 1.88. Naz is 2.08 for those who want to know but, nothing really counts regarding fuctures until after 8:30 a.m., e.s.t. tomorrow morning.

 

Drano,

I went back and saw your post on IDS. It was . . . how can I put this. . . ah! Like pressing down on that sore tooth! :wink2:

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Mark - I appreciate the financial satire in your column and the wit and wisdom from the other stoolies.

 

I've just got back from UK where I've been on 2 week vacation where I picked up my green card. Not sure I will want it if this fiasco continues but I don't think it matters too much as the UK is squatting down in the next crap house cubicle. (Can we borrow some financial paper ?)

 

Whilst I was out there, I was reading the UK newspapers and watching the news. The similarities to US was interesting:

 

1) Real Estate Bust : This has already started especially in Home counties around London. Brit Sheople have also been buying up properties to let to renters but found everybody was thinking the same. :o Duh ! In addition to negative equity, Mortgage market is also heading for the crapper as many people in UK have something called an Endowment mortgage. Basically, it is a ballon mortgage with final payment is based on investments (Stock markets). Before 2000's, this has usually exceeded outstanding debt. Now, people are getting letters from their martgage companies that they will be in shortfall and need to put more away for the end payment.

 

2) FTSE : This has now declined to 9 year low but still falling.

In UK they have financial regulator (Read busybody/ nanny) who oversees many of the financial funds for pensions etc. There was talk in the press about level of liquidity they must hold. If FTSE droped below 3500, many of them will have to dump stock to make sure there are liquid enough. (Sound like a panic spiral ?). Not sure how this played out FTSE finished below 3500 today but I flew out yesterday. BBC report

 

3) Institutional Investors : Somebody earlier mentioned insurance companies: In UK, many are heavily exposed to stock market much more than their Continental Europe counterpart. Many have cancelled their annual bonuses to owners of endowment policies and have raised their penalties for exiting prematurely (eg/ from 10% to 25% of total value).

 

4) Financial Experts and Hacks : Same message - "Buy as the bottom is nigh. This is an opportunity". Lordy.

 

:shocked God save the Queen. (Afterall, He/she certainly will not save the Pound nor the Dollar). Fool Britania.

 

btw- the stuff about the Mayor's 5 pounds congestion charge is a red herring. It will be for Central London only and most people there wouldn't drive a car there anyhow. It is too slow to get around and parking is a freaking nightmare. Most people use underground or bus in this area.

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Machinehead, it is my opinion that those in Europe are alot more politically sophisticated than the drones over here. London understands the utter madness of invading Iraq and the English don't want in, they are being bribed and bullied and Blair may need a serious diaper changing soon. After having been terror bombed for 4 years by the Luftwaffen they well understand the consequences of what it means to go to war. Americans just want to tank up the Chevy Tahoe,get the over and under on the Super Bowl and refinance the second home. Interesting to note that last fall, the European markets I beleive were the first to go down, then we followed. best,buddha

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What do ya'll make of that 5 day RSI reading of 12.36 on the close today?  I'm not in this market, as ya know, but boy that would sure get my attention if I was short, which I'm not....  Happy trading...

 

Certainly a valid concern.

 

Oscillators like that are always difficult to use effectively on moves like this. For example, daily stochastics went into deep Dover Sole on the 16th but, other than a brief glance over 20 on Thursday, they're still there. The McOsi's been Dover Sole for a while now, too -- at levels that are "supposed" to generate a bounce. Yet those levels haven't generated any bounces.

 

If this IS a third wave, then these oscillators will likely reach levels of collapse that most of us have never seen. As Doc is fond of saying, "There's no such thing as support in a bear market."

 

Not a reason to trade recklessly of course, but certainly an argument for not trying to front-run the price movement by using indicators. This reasoning saved me from covering on Thursday. Pick a stop-loss level and don't cover unless it's violated. Personally, I'm using very wide stop-losses -- I don't want to get whipsawed and miss a big move. Use whatever works for you, though.

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Captains log.

 

You mentioned g-d save the queen, well, that's good enough for me to spit out a jingle.

 

The SEX PISTOLS> g-d save the Queen.

 

GOD SAVE THE QUEEN

 

 

GOD SAVE THE QUEEN

THE FACIST REGIME

THEY MADE YOU A MORON

POTENTIAL H-BOMB

 

GOD SAVE THE QUEEN

SHE AINT NO HUMAN BEING

THERE IS NO FUTURE

IN ENGLANDS DREAMING

 

DON'T BE TOLD WHAT YOU WANT

DON'T BE TOLD WHAT YOU NEED

 

THERE'S NO FUTURE NO FUTURE

NO FUTURE FOR YOU

 

GOD SAVE THE QUEEN

WE MEAN IT MAN

WE LOVE OUR QUEEN

GOD SAVES

 

GOD SAVE THE QUEEN

'COS TOURISTS ARE MONEY

OUR FIGURE HEAD

IS NOT WHAT SHE SEEMS

 

OH GOD SAVE HISTORY

GOD SAVE YOUR MAD PARADE

OH LORD GOD HAVE MERCY

ALL CRIMES ARE PAID

 

WHEN THERE'S NO FUTURE

HOW CAN THERE BE SIN

WE'RE THE FLOWERS IN THE DUSTBIN

WE'RE THE POISON IN YOUR HUMAN MACHINE

WE'RE THE FUTURE YOU'RE FUTURE

 

GOD SAVE THE QUEEN

WE MEAN IT MAN

WE LOVE OUR QUEEN

GOD SAVES

 

GOD SAVE THE QUEEN

WE MEAN IT MAN

AND THERE IS NO FUTURE

IN ENGLANDS DREAMING

 

NO FUTURE NO FUTURE

NO FUTURE FOR YOU

NO FUTURE NO FUTURE

NO FUTURE NO FUTURE FOR ME

 

NO FUTURE NO FUTURE

NO FUTURE FOR YOU

NO FUTURE NO FUTURE FOR YOU

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For You Prztl, :wink2:

 

Steely Dan

Aja (1977)

Deacon Blues

 

This is the day

Of the expanding man

That shape is my shade

There where I used to stand

It seems like only yesterday

I gazed through the glass

At ramblers

Wild gamblers

That's all in the past

 

You call me a fool

You say it's a crazy scheme

This one's for real

I already bought the dream

So useless to ask me why

Throw a kiss and say goodbye

I'll make it this time

I'm ready to cross that fine line

 

CHORUS:

I'll learn to work the saxophone

I'll play just what I feel

Drink Scotch whisky all night long

And die behind the wheel

They got a name for the winners in the world

I want a name when I lose

They call Alabama the Crimson Tide

Call me Deacon Blues

 

My back to the wall

A victim of laughing chance

This is for me

The essence of true romance

Sharing the things we know and love

With those of my kind

Libations

Sensations

That stagger the mind

 

I crawl like a viper

Through these suburban streets

Make love to these women

Languid and bittersweet

I'll rise when the sun goes down

Cover every game in town

A world of my own

I'll make it my home sweet home

 

CHORUS

 

This is the night

Of the expanding the man

I take one last drag

As I approach the stand

I cried when I wrote this song

Sue me if I play too long

This brother is free

I'll be what I want to be

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"Whilst" . . . whilst. ?I just love the way you Limeys talk! :D

Mousey - You are a veritable cheeky bugger.

Now consider yourself bloody well told orf.. B)

 

I'm going to make myself a nice cuppa.

"Cheeky Bugger" is my middle name. :grin:

Skip the cuppa. Let's hoist a pint. :P

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"Teetering On The Edge" is right. I can't believe the number of large market cap stocks that are rolling over in sync (bouncing down off their 200dma like magic). This reminds me of last July, when the Dow sold off for days on end ... except it looks even worse. Will Al & Co. save the day? When it comes to those clowns, I don't rule anything out. But, as Doc has pointed out in the Anals, Al is stuck between a rock and a hard place (of his own making) and may just let the chips fall where they may (wishful thinking?). Excepting a miracle, I believe we are going down hard for the next several weeks (months?) ... and, I think the Dow is going to suffer considerably more than the Nads.

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