agent.5 Posted December 31, 2003 Report Share Posted December 31, 2003 HT: Some of us believe that your scenario is the most logical outcome. Even you agreed that the Matrix may play the hyperinflation card before the hyperdeflation scenario occurs. I think we are seeing the hyperinflation card being play right now, the Matrix does want to play his hand as slow as possible to drag out the invitable for as long as possible. In the meantime, I think we just need to make fun of the craps that are going on; otherwise, like you say, when the final despiration act appears, no laughter will be heard because we are not able to comprehend what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest jrmfl Posted December 31, 2003 Report Share Posted December 31, 2003 .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HiHat Posted December 31, 2003 Report Share Posted December 31, 2003 Greenspan is speaking this Saturday.....in some special venue. I think I also heard Bernake and someone else from FED is speaking as well. Something could be up here........Maybe an effort to jawbone dollar out of serious freefall........................................................... Friday market action could be a TELL..................................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted December 31, 2003 Report Share Posted December 31, 2003 Dear Abby, A bullish coworker told me that the market is bound to go up in the election year of 2004, and furthermore that it has NEVER topped out in January. Am I doomed? Worried Sick Dear Worried, Your coworker has given you a bum steer. Three times in the postwar period, the DJIA topped out in January: 1953 Jan 5 - a 13% decline followed, ending on 1953 Sep 14. 1960 Jan 5 - a 17% decline followed, ending on 1960 Oct 25 [just before the election]. 1973 Jan 11 - a 45% decline followed, ending on 1974 Dec 6. In the election year of 1984, a secondary top was set on Jan 6, half a point below the preceding 1983 Nov 29 peak. A 15.5% decline followed, ending on 1984 July 24. So it's a myth that the market can't top in January, and can't fall in an election year. Enjoy your New Year party, Worried. And suggest counseling for your deluded coworker, with a reputable psychoproctologist such as Dr. Stepan N. Stool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slothrop Posted December 31, 2003 Report Share Posted December 31, 2003 A happy new year to all Stoolies. JR, thanks for the "00" photo, but I don't think it'll last long on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hairy_Dent Posted December 31, 2003 Report Share Posted December 31, 2003 Mark: I add my enthusiastic ?thank you? to the many others offered by us Stoolies. You honor us, and this site, with your time and talent. Your humor and wit reminds us that all is not dollars and cents, and your prescient warning about the extent of the SM rally has saved me, and hopefully others, mucho dinero. Doc and Moderators: Thanks for the construction and maintenance of this fine site. While it may not always be apparent to you, you all have succeeded in your goal of providing an enjoyable place for thoughtful, skeptical, and clever investors and traders to play. Good luck on that ?profitable? part of the plan. Stoolies and posters: Thanks for another year full of laughs, information, insights and hoots. Good luck next year, and have a safe and happy New Years holiday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted December 31, 2003 Report Share Posted December 31, 2003 I know some of u guys are wondering how America will suffer from inflation. Answer is quite simple. Funny money will end up back in America, which will be valued at lower rates. Process is already happening only the Asians bankers are stopping the process. Link Here is the free money Hyper .............. Take care, Yes feedfool I'm fully aware of all that years ago and I too believed it was infinite but I eventually ascended to a higher level beyond the just think positive inflation forever religion... It is factored into my thinking already...has been for 10 years at least... They had the same powers during the Great Depression and the final solution was the murder of 100 million people, the reducing to rubble of much of Europe and the dropping of 2 atomic bombs on Japan... Stage 3 of Fractional reserve banking is... Bankruptcy of the banks...Free money to buy them up...Collapse of the economy...Free money to run a police state and work camps...and the consolidation of power...Free money to buy everything at fire sale prices... Every dollar of the "world reserve currency" created is already "roosting" or you think they have vaults full of cash collecting dust? Every dollar of debt created is "roosting" the second it is created...Nothing is going to come "home to roost" it already is... Feed the system is a debt backed by debt fractional reserve system...there is no way to inflate out...it is inflate or die even if that means that the system requires a debt inflation rate of 100 Quadrillion debt dollars a second with interest rates rising by 50000 basis points a nanosecond...or debt deflationary forces overpower the system and it collapses... Sorry to inform you of this simple fact... debt inflation must be maintained forever or the system implodes... I have always maintained that debt deflation is what is coming... Here it is again... Stages of a debt backed by debt fractional reserve system... 1 Inflation of debt and destruction of savings 2 Deflation of debt and the destruction of equity 3 bankruptcy of the banks, Collapse of the economy, and the consolidation of power... easy as 1,2,3...no amount of free money is enough to prevent this simple process from functioning...in fact that is the reason why it functions the way it does... see the exponential infinite inflation line? we will be on the doorstep of that in the later part of 2004 maybe early 2005... then to prevent implosion debt inflation will have to become "infinite" straight up faster and faster greater and greater...exponentially to infinity... or a hyperdeflationary implosion of debt will start and be unstoppable... either infinite amounts of free money as you call it need to be created and distributed or they have to figure out a way to drop interest rates past zero infinitely... You think things are confusing now? I wonder what it will be like when it is moving a million times faster a billion or a Trillion? I wonder when the blind followers of the just think positive religious cult will make their final stand and commit mass suicide? when their debt inflationary messiah turns out to be a false profit... And there is no way you can escape this... So here is the most optimistic scenario... Stages of a debt backed by debt fractional reserve system... 1.Inflation of debt and the destruction of savings... This process started between 1958 to 61 and will end sometime in 2004 to 2005 2. Deflation of debt and the destruction of equity Sometime in 2004 to 2005 this will start and be unstoppable leading to a hyperdeflationary implosion of debt... 3. Bankruptcy of the banks, collapse of the economy, and consolidation of power 2006 is where the Great Depression II will reign supreme... That is if everything moves like clockwork...If it does not it will happen sooner... "Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the (Responsible) Capitalistic System was to debauch the currency. . . Lenin was certainly right. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million can diagnose." - John Maynard Keynes member of the socialist Fabian society, One of the chief architects of our current system... The other chief Architect was Herry Dexter White a member of the communist party... I've been following this for 16 years and it was quite fascinating then one day I realized this was actually taking place on the planet Earth and I'm part of it...I was fortunate to have been born to witness the "endgame"... The inevitable endgame... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 1, 2004 Report Share Posted January 1, 2004 MoGauge Slides Again What's Al To Do? 15 Day Intro Subscribatory. Just $2.99! Get In RIGHT NOW! It's MoGauge Day! Once a week Doc fills you in on the all important MoGauge, straight from the MoGauge Bankers Ass. The MoGauge reflects the source of most of the liquidity in the financial bubble world we live in and may be an even more important indicator of future market behavior than even the Feed itself. The MoGauge has in recent years had a near flawless record of forecasting broad market movements weeks in advance. Take a subscribatory and download your MoGauge RIGHT NOW!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted January 1, 2004 Report Share Posted January 1, 2004 To all, I started trying to explain this to people years ago and it has made me one of the most reviled creatures on the planet...When I told my wife that we had to leave our friends and family behind because we needed to implement a controled destruction of our own personal debt inflated empire the climax was a jail cell and being on the run from the cops for six months until I pulled an OJ...So If I sound like a psycho there is nothing much I can do about that...Not a day goes by where I wish I could go back to the good old happy go lucky simpleminded days when I was blissfully ignorant...I can't block out what I know or think...I've done myself in... Sorry if I offend you...I'm a nutcase... Rate rises... I've looked at it from 93 to 95 rates rose 100% or from 3% to 6% then basically dropped down to 4.75 in 1999 then rose to 6.5% to pop the bubble... In the here and now a rise in fed funds of 1% would equal the 93 to 95 100% and a rise of 25 basis points will almost equal the 1999 to 2000 hike... It is possible if debt inflation is powerful enough that Federal funds could be raised but debt inflation which is constantly losing power would lose power quicker... As far as I can tell total debt growth is moving straight up to support the system and federal funds rising would add downward pressure to debt inflation... All I know is eventually debt deflation will show up again and there will be no way to drop federal funds enough to light the fuse again... I figure it is up to mortgage rates now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted January 1, 2004 Report Share Posted January 1, 2004 MoGauge Slides Again What's Al To Do? The sliding MoGauge shows us that stable interest rates will do almost nothing for the housing market now. The money supply is still falling and I find it almost amusing that even some "bear" sites are telling us the money supply is fine since the money velocity will pick up because of the activities of the GSEs. However it won't be funny to me or anyone here when the Fed makes further moves in 2004 against real savers, which will further misallocate the financial resources of the country. Essentially real interest rates will take an additional, but more subtle drop, as the Fed holds Fed Funds at 1% while general (non-real estate) inflation accelerates. The threat of terrorism and actual disruptions in the ME will be used to justify easy money. On Monday, I mentioned the Fed may have already begun another easing move, which Doc also explains in greater detail in tonight's Fed report. Even if it turns out that this move is just a year end fake out, there will in a short time be real Fed moves ahead to stop the contraction of the money supply. I feel Doc, Mark, and CapitalStool in general will in 2004 clearly see through these moves and figure out how to profit from them. Thanks everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 1, 2004 Report Share Posted January 1, 2004 To all, I started trying to explain this to people years ago and it has made me one of the most reviled creatures on the planet...When I told my wife that we had to leave our friends and family behind because we needed to implement a controled destruction of our own personal debt inflated empire the climax was a jail cell and being on the run from the cops for six months until I pulled an OJ...So If I sound like a psycho there is nothing much I can do about that...Not a day goes by where I wish I could go back to the good old happy go lucky simpleminded days when I was blissfully ignorant...I can't block out what I know or think...I've done myself in... Sorry if I offend you...I'm a nutcase... That's OK Hyper. I can relate. You see, I've gone the other way to get the same way.. . . I left the relative calm of Virginia . . . . To live in New York City! Ha Ha Hee Hee Ho Ho! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 1, 2004 Report Share Posted January 1, 2004 IF you put the credit gwoth chart on a percentage basis, isn't it fairly constant? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjkst27 Posted January 1, 2004 Report Share Posted January 1, 2004 Hyper - what's with the 4 months rhetoric? Stick around bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 1, 2004 Report Share Posted January 1, 2004 Hyper. We all appreciate your committment. But you gotta lighten up a little. Especially if you are right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted January 1, 2004 Report Share Posted January 1, 2004 mj, It was a pleasure meeting and hanging with ya in the past year. I am glad we met. Happy new year buddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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