martialcomp Posted January 25, 2003 Report Share Posted January 25, 2003 After listening to almost the entire interview, he is concerned with dollar devaluation. He thinks that the Fed is done being able to stimulate the market because of the falling dollar. In other words, Alan Greenspan has bigger fish to fry. He likes gold and seems to be hinting that some foreign investments might be good including debt, or that is just how I am reading it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
martialcomp Posted January 25, 2003 Report Share Posted January 25, 2003 Noland mentioned that the market mentality is "Full Steam Ahead" and ignore the debt, ignore the pro-forma earnings, ignore the truth. He thinks that nothing good will happen until companies start dealing with the excess debt, poor earnings, etc. As far as the markets...they have proven that they do NOT move on news. They move in cycles just like Doc has told us many times. The markets are in the downward cycle right now. But, sooner or later, whether we like it or not, they will be in an up phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
martialcomp Posted January 25, 2003 Report Share Posted January 25, 2003 On a positive note... Will it not be GREAT to see Dumblow, Jammer and Ruksheister all pumping the markets in the next few weeks while it is TANKING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted January 25, 2003 Report Share Posted January 25, 2003 Skidd, What B4 is doing is, as the market works in his favour, he takes profits on the options that have lost their premium and goes into lower strike priced options in the attempt to capture even more appreciation from maintaining that premium. It's sound, in that you keep taking $ off the table but, should you pyrimid and get whipped then the premium disolves VERY fast. I would only reco. what B4 is doing if you know what your doing and have a very nimble finger. Me , i stick w/ Way in the Money or time options, just in case. And once in a while i hedge with out of the money options Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted January 25, 2003 Report Share Posted January 25, 2003 SLAUGHTER STREET!!! First day in a long time I could relax... Same here, Hypertiger. Fokker is up 12% in one week on that AGF Managed Futures fund he picked up. Up overall on his shorts this year. Up on his overweighted coin/CEF/miners positions. Fokker had a good night and feels more relaxed than he has in weeks. Maybe things are alright after all. All you Stoolies, thanks. It's been a really rocky month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whadda I Do Whadda I Do Posted January 25, 2003 Report Share Posted January 25, 2003 Saw Doug Cliggott (a master bear) on some sorry ass show, said buying opportunity for SP 500 is near 640 area. Other highlights: Negative earnings reported past quarters with this quarter down (only half of companies reporting so far) and coming 2nd quarter with even less earnings which are not priced in yet; War no real effect; Euro higher; Bear into next year or two; Interest rates the same or lower; Housing and consumers have held market together until this point; Gold up; Hedge funds like any other stock, beware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted January 25, 2003 Report Share Posted January 25, 2003 Hyper, Saw you latest post in LOB. Prechter is correct this time. I hope not. 3,500 dow yes but pickin' berries whilest holding a rifle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted January 25, 2003 Report Share Posted January 25, 2003 Budda and Skid-O.K. Let's talk ladders it's not rocket science but it works for me-You believe the market will fall-the anals, the e waves, the charts, the stars are all in alignment. The Spx is stewing around 906. Now i rarely buy the near month it's cheap but the market goes against you-you lose premium and sleep. Sooo You buy a deep in the money put =--in this case 940 march contract-then you buy a 930 and a 920- a 910 and a 900 and you have a ladder down. market falls from 906 on gap dpwn open to 890-you sell 930 and buy a 890-890 is cheap profit from 930 goes into account-markets falls to 880 you close 920-870 you close 910 and buy 880 etc. this way you are choking the chicken on the way down-taking profit out and reducing your risk-also because each time you buy closer to the money the premium expands versus if you just kept the 930 you get dollar for dollar in the fall but no premium benefit. If the market turns on you reverse the ladder with a deep in the money call and build up from there following the market. If you are not sure and want to protect yourself use the end-b4 straddle-say spx is 910 but not sure what is going to happen short term but bias is down long term buy 930 put 880 call-3 months out and relax. Now don't do this if you have a day job and can't watch the market constantly-the escape hatch on any market is simply what i told Torah Man a long time ago (buy a put-buy a call)e.g. you are short from 910 the market fooks you and goes to 920-don't freeze buy a 930 call and relax if it does the reverse buy a put. Use the tools the market gives you to beat it-think of the market as a game of snakes and ladders-this system works on both indexes and stocks-the secret is you move with the market-you don't stand still. As Satchel page once said never look back someone may be gaining on you. trade safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted January 25, 2003 Report Share Posted January 25, 2003 Prtzl, For you buddy :grin: When Black Friday comes I'll stand down by the door And catch the grey men when they Dive from the fourteenth floor When Black Friday comes I'll collect everything I'm owed And before my friends find out I'll be on the road When Black Friday falls you know it's got to be Don't let it fall on me When Black Friday comes I'll fly down to Muswellbrook Gonna strike all the big red words From my little black book Gonna do just what I please Gonna wear no socks and shoes With nothing to do but feed All the kangaroos When Black Friday comes I'll be on that hill You know I will When Black Friday comes I'm gonna dig myself a hole Gonna lay down in it 'til I satisfy my soul Gonna let the world pass by me The Archbishop's gonna sanctify me And if he don't come across I'm gonna let it roll When Black Friday comes I'm gonna stake my claim I'll guess I'll change my name Steely Dan Katie lied album Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rayok Posted January 25, 2003 Report Share Posted January 25, 2003 Anybody know what's up with HMY?? It was actually down today. More sellers than buyers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted January 25, 2003 Report Share Posted January 25, 2003 B4, You splain alot better then me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pretzel Logic Posted January 25, 2003 Report Share Posted January 25, 2003 Thanks, TE. I have to comment on something: I've heard many people remark that the SPX option traders are the savviest people in the market, and good luck trading against them. All I have to say about that is, this morning I put in a bid for SPX puts well-below ask, and my order was filled at 9:36. By the close, I was up 40+% in this position. Nice work, SPX market makers! You guys sure got the best of me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted January 25, 2003 Report Share Posted January 25, 2003 The cboe has F*cked me and mine a number of times. Saying "it was a fast market" or It wasn't the bid for more than a minute. I hate those crooks. Good for you. Did you sell? :grin: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted January 25, 2003 Report Share Posted January 25, 2003 B4, thanks for clarifying. Thats what I thought it was. I take it you put the ladder on all at once?! The one thing I learned the hard way was NOT to be lured by the near or out of money options no matter how tempting their returns. Stay deep in the money and at least two months out. QQQ March 28s yielded 20% today. That's phenomenal. No its not the 60% that out of money would give but its not chump change and like you say you sleep at night and have a better chance at winning consistently. Pigs get slaughtered, especially in options. Always consider risk or probabilty-adjusted returns when playing options and above all be disciplined and very level headed and not greedy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pretzel Logic Posted January 25, 2003 Report Share Posted January 25, 2003 The cboe has F*cked me and mine a number of times. Saying "it was a fast market" or It wasn't the bid for more than a minute. I hate those crooks. Good for you. Did you sell? :grin: Not yet, following T's lead. So hopefully we don't gap up on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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