DrStool Posted March 13, 2003 Report Share Posted March 13, 2003 Good Morning and Good Stool to all. This thread is your short term and intraday TA refuge. No chit chat. That goes on the adjacent IDS thread. Longer term TA posts should go on LOB or Dr. Bontchev's TA forum! Traders, take it away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oyster Posted March 13, 2003 Report Share Posted March 13, 2003 Good Morning Doc.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Contrarian Posted March 13, 2003 Report Share Posted March 13, 2003 Premarket is pushing the upper edge of the envelope - I think we'll tick down before we tick up - (already wrong as I type - now marginally even more extreme) projecting from yesterday's close +.15pts per hour for 10 hours in yellow +0 in white -.15 in yellow on HOURLY SPY data: my ST chart and my IT Attractor For those unfamiliar with my charts, an explanation can be found here. It focuses on daily data but is applicable to hourly by substituting hours for days in the trends, moving averages, lookback periods, slopes, etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 13, 2003 Report Share Posted March 13, 2003 Strange day, yesterday... We didn't get the key reversal Oyster was expecting. Nevertheless, we did put a Hammer, which is a low-reliability bullish reversal candlestick. Needs a confirmation, though. Despite the bounce, my intermediate-term indicators (the BPIs, number of stocks above their significant MAs, etc.) actually went mostly down. I still expect a bear market rally to start virtually any time now. However, for now I remain sceptical that it has already started. I need more confirmations before going long - even if that means missing a part of the rally. Those who pick bottoms have smelly fingers. Mostly flat now, with the exception of very small positions in 3 penny gold mining stocks. Folks, any chance of sticking with posting charts that aren't too wide? :wink2: Regards, Vesselin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oyster Posted March 13, 2003 Report Share Posted March 13, 2003 This may be a little long for here but I post...then back to 1 liners rest of day....but it shows my thinking......please don't read me a a longterm Bear turned longterm Bull....this is moneymanagement as I have said before and SG also said...... I am still sticking with my 3 month cycle counts past weeks I showed as opposed others......the low due 3/10 +/- I suspect was yesterday........up into begin April.....this should tie in with 1 year cycle inversion period low here 3/17 +/- up into May.......alternate thing which many have is we can still top in this period as many suggest because 1year inversion point BUT I don't want to be still short thinking at 820 or 840-850 S&P whether it's going to test 785 area again...I want to have a fresh mind..if straight down from here I may rejoin shorts but I should spot that pattern pretty quickly. ...so far my calls Europe downside from December 2nd last year are spot on within a couple handles or so...HeeHee.....Some longs for me went into Europe yesterday afternoon as we hit 2200 basis DAX and 3300 FTSE......no more pressing Europe for me from here.....and with yesterday's move to just shy of my count from 870 prompted another 25% position shorts....only 25% position shorts left from past months....and I remain scalp/swing long a tad...... My warnings yesterday of Superoverextensions on Euro and Europe Bonds as 5 of 5 completes seems to be showing preliminary signs my idea is correct....Gold...well...I remain basically short into April or August....by the way...Europe Bonds could begin a correction lasting into June at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oyster Posted March 13, 2003 Report Share Posted March 13, 2003 If that was too long above for premarket stuff then I will remove to LOB..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 13, 2003 Author Report Share Posted March 13, 2003 Oy- You're in the MIT thread. Did you want to be here or IDS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drano Posted March 13, 2003 Report Share Posted March 13, 2003 Oyster, your posts are great and no one is ever going to think they are too long. But, I think you're on the wrong thread this morning -- this is the TA thread -- you usually post on the intraday trading thread, which is here: http://www.capitalstool.com/forums/index.p...=3&t=1677&st=0& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 13, 2003 Report Share Posted March 13, 2003 Oyster, doesn't seem too long to me. As long as it's TA, I welcome it here. Regards, Vesselin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oyster Posted March 13, 2003 Report Share Posted March 13, 2003 Oy- You're in the MIT thread. Did you want to be here or IDS? Oh...thx doc....it can stay here...I may just repost in IDS as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackbelt Posted March 13, 2003 Report Share Posted March 13, 2003 I'll be out most of the day... Watch 816 which is 360 degrees from 789. That should contain the upmove. Also time pivot for the day is 12:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeedFool Posted March 13, 2003 Report Share Posted March 13, 2003 Next turn date is 4-4-2003. But my calculation says 1st of April will make the top. Let see how it plays out. I would not short unless one is scalping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sniff Posted March 13, 2003 Report Share Posted March 13, 2003 Yesterday the volume was the hint, when supportive vol. came in Today a lot of resistive volume as price rises.... parabolic? In a down trending market resistive volume carries more weight. which would have more down pressure. imo From a volume point of view, if price overcomes the resistive volume. That could indicate a short term shift to the upside...... parabolic ? gap to close? bull flag today? your guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slothrop Posted March 13, 2003 Report Share Posted March 13, 2003 Oyster's count on the bonds (5of5, overextended,etc) is confirmed by the extreme bullish reading of 85% in the sentiment indicators. It's one of the best short signals I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 13, 2003 Report Share Posted March 13, 2003 Second leg up about to start any time now. Sorry, no chart, but on the 1-minute intra-day chart the SPX is about to break out above the downsloping resistance line. It would be encouraging (for the bears) if the move up on the COMPX does not surpass the 1300-1310 area - but I think that it will. If the COMPX goes above 1322, the bearish bets are off, I'm afraid; it would mean that the bear market rally I'm expecting has started. Regards, Vesselin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.