wndysrf Posted April 14, 2003 Report Share Posted April 14, 2003 Mark's Market Commentary - April 14, 2003 I think I have come to the point of exhaustion. There is really nothing to report on the stock market other than what has been reported 145 times during this bear market. Its the same story, over and over. Overflowing liquidity. Rampant speculation. Gigantic short squeezes. Repeated and regular futures jamming at 3:00am Financials reporting stellar, blowout earnings thanks to the consumer lending bubble. Options Expiration Whipsaws, as explained by Buddha: "Same thing every month on this site. Technicians constantly calling 'tops' on OE week as if price movement is somehow genuine. We continue to be in midst of classic and typical forensic reversal move which should top out on Wednesday. Plenty of room for Dow to 8500 area or false breaking higher before selling resumes. All about blowing out puts and creating false news and earnings stories to do so." "Board forever underestimates the power of these reversals each month. Last month we had a 1200 point move in about 6 days into OE, anybody remember that? Those who fail to remember history are condemned to repeat it. End of rant. Use of charts,lines,Ewoofers during OE is all very heady and interesting but its really just a glorified form of butt sniffing that trails the actual price action like a horn dog on the tail of a bitch in heat." Increasing Program Robot trading. Collapsing fear. Another attack on the 200-day failed this morning. But the 4th attempt in the afternoon made it through, although on terrible volume. Right now, the enemy of the bears is liquidity. Liquidity is what is driving more and more hot money into the HedgeHogs, which are the primary gamers in this market. Unfortunately, they are getting squeezed regularly, sending stocks up into new orbits. The only other thing worth noting today was that gold closed below $325, yet the gold stocks barely declined. No selling pressure at all. Maybe the canary in the coal mine. I guess time will tell if Greenspan's Experiment is successful at turning around the business cycle, using the stock market as the lead sled dog. Why doesn't Al Green simply shovel in a $30 billion, 28-day Repo Blast right now? Why not take another jab at in the futures pits? We are so close to a breakout. Hard to see any end to this buying spree. But notice how the Supermodels were relatively quiet today. Guess we'll have to see if we have some more "beat by a penny" madness to push us over the top. We'll have our answer shortly after the close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
h2orush Posted April 14, 2003 Report Share Posted April 14, 2003 IBM misses!!! Could we get a gift??!?!? 16:12 ET IBM misses by a penny, revs top consensus (80.07 halted) Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.79 per share, $0.01 worse than the Multex consensus of $0.80; revenues rose 11.3% year/year to $20.07 bln vs the $19.86 bln consensus. Missed by a penny, but beat on revenue...lets see whta they say on the call about their pension NVLS beat by a penny we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 14, 2003 Report Share Posted April 14, 2003 Mark: Perfectly said...we know exactly how you feel. I quite enjoyed the day myself...glad to see the piss poor volume on the supposedly trimphant earnings news (no one believes the numbers any more - and it shows). I'm still tits-long the miners (check out action on PAAS today) and went a ShipLoad short on RCL (double top, negative divergence, SARS, etc.). Plunger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
morass Posted April 14, 2003 Report Share Posted April 14, 2003 Thanks Mark, You have put your finger on it as well as can be. ?as if price movement is somehow genuine? Timing is still playing to Doc?s liquidity WAG. Still watching housing / financial. Still creeping up. The creeps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeedFool Posted April 14, 2003 Report Share Posted April 14, 2003 IBM misses!!! Could we get a gift??!?!? 16:12 ET IBM misses by a penny, revs top consensus (80.07 halted) Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.79 per share, $0.01 worse than the Multex consensus of $0.80; revenues rose 11.3% year/year to $20.07 bln vs the $19.86 bln consensus. Missed by a penny, but beat on revenue...lets see whta they say on the call about their pension NVLS beat by a penny we shall see It?s all about distribution. Top takes time to build. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted April 14, 2003 Author Report Share Posted April 14, 2003 Not much action AH. IBM still halted. NVLS down a hair. Anybody see anything else worth commenting on?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted April 14, 2003 Report Share Posted April 14, 2003 No, not really. You've got to hand it to anyone who reaches a ripe old age in this biz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2 floaters and a sinker Posted April 14, 2003 Report Share Posted April 14, 2003 The most telling is the lack of action, You would think that IBM's revs and NVLS beating by a penny would send it screaming to the upside. Let's see where the futures open. I still think FRE is trying to tell us something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soup Posted April 14, 2003 Report Share Posted April 14, 2003 is ibm halted? has the cc started? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted April 14, 2003 Report Share Posted April 14, 2003 surfs UP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soup Posted April 14, 2003 Report Share Posted April 14, 2003 fokker: no shit! Trying to ascertain the truth is virtually impossible. Not that it matters I guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tchaikofsky Posted April 14, 2003 Report Share Posted April 14, 2003 Very orderly AH. NVLS was at $27.50 a few minutes ago. Now at $26.89. :grin: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
martialcomp Posted April 14, 2003 Report Share Posted April 14, 2003 I know Buddha would disagree, but I called for the trend to end around April 17th. However, the market is up a lot since the last OE week, so the derivative holders need to make sure that the call options are as worthless as possible, so the market would be expected to go down in to OE day. Is it Thursday this month? Last huge intraday reversal was around March 12th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
morass Posted April 14, 2003 Report Share Posted April 14, 2003 Think NVLS is stinking it up for the rest. Cried wolf too often perhaps. Naaa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soup Posted April 14, 2003 Report Share Posted April 14, 2003 klac is down 70 cents in AH, is ibm open? if so anyone have a quote? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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