wndysrf Posted April 7, 2003 Report Share Posted April 7, 2003 Mark?s Market Commentary ? April 7, 2003 Wow, what a day. ?Unsettled market conditions permeate an increasingly fragile and maladjusted financial system?, as Noland would say. One hallmark of this bear market is the unfilled upside gap. All downside gaps have been filled, usually immediately. Upside gaps are left wide open. That means the ongoing panic to buy stocks continues, and panic selling has yet to surface. Until today. Another useful feature in this bear market has been the use of market curbs. Nothing like watching the ticker and seeing ?Curbs In? and knowing that blowoffs and panics are always held in check. With the explosion of derivative exotica, like Saddam Hussein futures, I am expecting further innovation in this area. How about putting some ?Curbs In? on my ex-girlfriend?s mood swings? How about some Mood Swing Puts and Calls? And why did my ex-girlfriend?s weight always seem to gap up in breakaway fashion? And any temporary gap downs were eventually filled with future eating binges? And then there is the bulimic wannabe actress. She attends the parties in Hollywood Hills, eats tons of caviar and drinks lots of wine to prove that she is ?high energy? and doesn?t have to worry about weight gain. But then she disappears to the bathroom and immediately starts coughing up everything which was consumed. Then she hits a ?Limit Down? and passes out, only to be awakened with ammonia sniffs by her girlfriends, and given some Special K designer drugs to ?pick her up? for the required evening festivities. Today?s stock market has become just as volatile and hysterical. In a desperate attempt to turn the tide, Da Boyz jammed us up on the open on a record breaking gap. After all, the sheep must be kept in the pen, and the only way to avoid having them panic out is to Repo Blast the Paper Pyramid to get the speculators to use more margin and more debt to ?participate? in the New Bull Market engineered by the post-Iraq v-shaped recovery. After the giant gap up on the open, we had one of those famous ?flagpole? distribution days, followed by an unexpected waterfall. One thing is for sure. Massive amounts of money has been lost on this volatility, wild gaps, and sudden reversals. We had many last year in March and May, and everyone knows what happened next. When will we hear of a HedgeHog with its head blown off? When will Joe Sixpack become so disturbed with the volatility, he finally starts taking money out? Can the dollar push past the March highs? Can Da Boyz push the indexes up past the December highs? What will happen after that? Where will the money come from? Not much else to say, other than that the Stock Market Mania is still alive and well. No mystery writer, no financial journalist, not even the most creative minds in Hollywood could dream up a Soap Opera story like this. Never before has there been so much desperation. So much wealth transferred. So much paper created. So much hype and hope. Now we are waiting for the last chapter. The Ten Sigma Event. What will it be? A massive Hedge Fund blowup? A coordinated selling attack of the U.S. Dollar and a gold buying panic by the Arabs and Muslims? A Black Box Program Robot Failure that sends interest rates careening to the upside? A Crash Alert remains in effect. Who knows? Mark to Market is documenting the story in real time. For a new novel which is guaranteed to be a best seller: Wall Struck by Cheat Street Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strikerm3 Posted April 7, 2003 Report Share Posted April 7, 2003 nice article wnydy. Hope you dont mind but need to post Options Expirations info. I forgot about the upcoming holiday. OE WEEK ENDS THURSDAT NOT FRIDAY ALL ***EARLY COURTESY NOTIFICATION DUE TO THE GOOD FRIDAY HOLIDAY*** ***NOTE: LAST DAY TO TRADE APRIL EQUITY OPTIONS IS THURSDAY 4/17/2003*** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted April 7, 2003 Author Report Share Posted April 7, 2003 Hammers on VXN, VIX. Divergent highs on McClellan. Too much volume today, probably one more light volume push to retest a third time into the end of the week. Index Sentiment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted April 7, 2003 Report Share Posted April 7, 2003 Not a bad day at all. Shorted near the top. Covered and doubled the small position 3 points lower at 891. Still holding. Tanks for listening Brian4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yaryman Posted April 7, 2003 Report Share Posted April 7, 2003 Jim Cramer kiss of death? From 8:45am ET with S&P futures up 3,000 points we get this from Jim "my wife saved my ass more than once at my hedge fund" Cramer. "Let's presume the war is over. If that's the case, what are we entitled to, a 5% bounce? A 10% bounce? The one map that has gotten me the furthest is the 1991 map, which says that, at a minimum, we get another 10%." Historians will look back and say Cramer calling for 10% more upside was the top. Just like Maria looking into the camera, and asking the question, "should investors short the market?" called a bottom last October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted April 7, 2003 Author Report Share Posted April 7, 2003 MCHP warns. Round trip on the intraday on Uncle Buck. VIA and BBY failed to take out highs. Might be good shorts tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted April 7, 2003 Report Share Posted April 7, 2003 Mark Fowler on another board suggested this when asked about looking down towards 842 looks real bad, but as a bear i know that "they" know how bad it looks too and will be waiting tomorrow to buy a dip that is looking too nasty down to 860? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Direwolf Posted April 7, 2003 Report Share Posted April 7, 2003 omg, those have to be the UGLIEST candles I've ever seen on the ALL the major indeces. wow....anyone dong now is toast!!!!!!! me? long gfi,drooy,bullion and cash.... will be purchasing index puts on the opening tick tomorrow! dw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeerMarket Posted April 7, 2003 Report Share Posted April 7, 2003 MCHP warns. Round trip on the intraday on Uncle Buck. VIA and BBY failed to take out highs. Might be good shorts tomorrow. RFMD also warned (rev higher than est, but bad product mix - gotta be careful mixing those products) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigWave Posted April 7, 2003 Report Share Posted April 7, 2003 And why did my ex-girlfriend?s weight always seem to gap up in breakaway fashion? And any temporary gap downs were eventually filled with future eating binges? Isn't it the truth! Excellant as always, Mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted April 7, 2003 Author Report Share Posted April 7, 2003 INTC WARNS!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted April 7, 2003 Author Report Share Posted April 7, 2003 Ha Ha!!! Just kidding....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
h2orush Posted April 7, 2003 Report Share Posted April 7, 2003 Looks like a classic reversal day to me, much like liftoff move a month ago only in reverse..... Classic hammers abound, check Citipoop, does it get any better? Perfect hammer reversal. Went short today EBAY (This time with my real money), QLGC, and ANSS on a tip, longed GFI....Will see how it plays Good trading all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
On The Beach Posted April 7, 2003 Report Share Posted April 7, 2003 INTC WARNS!! Did you mean INTL? They did warn. Couple of zeros difference in market cap... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted April 7, 2003 Report Share Posted April 7, 2003 Most will warn. Will it mean anything is the answer I seek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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