wndysrf Posted April 1, 2003 Report Share Posted April 1, 2003 Mark?s Market Commentary ? April 1, 2003 Weekend temps in Baghdad are forecast to be 90 ? 100 this weekend. Our tank boys will be rolling around inside a sweat box. Mutual fund and HedgeHog managers will be reporting the quarter end results soon. Joe Sixpack might take a peek at his statement for once, after hearing about the big ?War Rally?. All Arena Participants will be sitting in the sweat box, wondering what to do, and wondering how the other guy is going to react. Will the redemptions start? Or will the markets stage a fantastic Saddam is Dead rally? Should I sell now, or wait? As reported here the last two years, the stock market is the economy. And the Semiconductor Index is the stock market. Is it any wonder that Citigroup picked its top semi anal cyst to head its entire equity research department?? Salomon taps Joseph to head U.S./Americas equity research © by Greg Morcroft ?Citigroup © has named its semiconductor anal cyst Johnathon Joseph to run equity research for the U.S. and the America at its Salomon Smith Barney unit, Reuters reported Tuesday. Reuters cited an internal memo it obtained. Citigroup was not immediately available for comment on the report. Quoting from the memo, the report said Joseph has had an "extraordinary career" and has "successfully managed his franchise and developed a team of professionals." The report further stated that Mark Fulton, the unit's director of research since October, will become deputy head reporting to Joseph.? More jawboning out of the Fed governors yesterday about the status of the ongoing?economic recovery?, promising certain acceleration later this year. I guess that?s why they are going to cut rates again. Richmond Fed President Al Broaddus says ?I think the recovery is solid enough to withstand the shocks it is currently experiencing and to accelerate moderately as the year progresses?, yet he indicated a readiness to cut rates quickly if the economy doesn?t improve, according to The Wall Struck Journal. Note the financial press? ongoing obsession with ?The Recovery? How is that?? Recovery from what? The Global Economic Planet and Speculative Sphere is in desperate need of a recovery. A Recovery from the incessant propping and jamming of OEX futures, which is now occurring on a daily basis. A Recovery from the large number of rate cuts, Repo Blasts, and GSE hypergrowth. A Recovery from the longest running and most successful retail spending spree of all time. A Recovery from record levels of bond issuance. A Recovery from one paper asset class being sold, only to hide in another paper asset class. A Recovery from the Securitization Bonanza, turning Bermuda and Cayman Island Garbage into money. A Recovery from the 110 db Bullhorns and Loudspeakers running 24/7. A Recovery from Global Markets co-dependent upon the future course of the U.S. Economy, which is simply one giant Pro-Forma Estimate. A Recovery from increasing levels of speculative intensity, Wildcat Finance, where the number of options strategies is multiplying daily. A Recovery from the Black Box Trading environment, where millions of eyeballs are transfixed on technical analysis, everyone gaming the same information and data points. A Recovery from the Noah?s Ark Flood of U.S. Dollars. A Recovery from unconventional measures used by Al Green to reverse the business cycle and prevent bubble unwinding. A Recovery from stocks selling at 20x sales and 100x earnings. A Recovery from weekly liquidity injections whose size and scope exceeds the market capitalization of the entire gold and silver mining stock industry. A Recovery from watching Maria rolling over the hill and gaining speed as she packs on more weight. A Recovery from the constant cheerleading led by Larry Kudlow and Jimmy Jones Cramer. A Recovery from Leslie LaRoche?s daily whippings in the PreMarket to get the Nasdaq Greyhounds moving. A Recovery from 1000 trading programs, 100 day trading seminars available to ?Work at Home? and game the massive liquidity blob sloshing inside the Paper Pyramid. A Recovery from the increasingly desperate ads being floated by the mutual fund companies, luring in more unsuspecting hopers unnerved by the Robot volatility. ????.. On the Credit Bubble front, GM is now offering zero percent for 5 years on all models. Good through April 30. What about next month? Interest-only loans with no maturity? How are we going to pay for this Iraq war situation? 50-year Treasuries? 100-years? Why not 500-years? After all, what is a Federal Reserve Note? Just a promise to pay. Doesn?t matter how long it takes. A promise is a promise, even if it occurs 499 years from now. No real comment on the markets, other than the fact that they remain untradeable. All bad news is bought, especially terrorist threats. Nothing can sell this market off, except a 10 Sigma event. Disasters, Maelstroms, Plagues, and Conflagrations are all positive for the market. Earnings bombs, accounting frauds, tumbling economic data are all news to be welcomed by the dippers and scalpers, who so far have been the big winners during this bear market. Program Trading data came out today, again setting a new quarterly record. Up to 39% for the 1st quarter, but shy of the 41% in the month of February. Compared to 33% last quarter, 27% in the 1st quarter of 2001 and 19% in the 1st quarter of 2000. Next quarter, I bet we see 45%. I wonder which side of the market the Commodity Robots are on now. Seems like everything was starting to roll to the downside yesterday, but today we got one of those ?sudden? reversals. Did they reverse their positions? How much money was lost this time? Who is keeping up with this volatility? I still maintain the prediction that one day we are going to see an up day with a .05 TRIN reading where 95% of all trading buys are going to be piling into one stock, like MMM, which will go up 20 points in one session. I will also make another prediction. Eventually, the Robot Programmers will start tightening their stops and fine tune the models to start gaming 1-minute candles in order to ?avoid risk?. We will see a 150 point up day, followed by a 150 point down day, followed by another up day, then a down day. So many Robots are out there collecting the same data streams. So many Robots able to see what the other Poker Hands are holding via Level II. Eventually the Robot action will simply cancel each other out, and the markets will flatline for weeks and everybody ends up losing money. Will there ever be a market clearing event? Who knows? When it happens, will all the Robots be jumping on the same side of the boat? Or do we have to wait until all Robots have been washed overboard first? Note some of the other WSJ headlines today: ?Dow Industrials Shouldn?t Be Nation?s Mood Ring? ?When Stocks and War Move in Lockstep? Why not jack up the ratings and insert some of these headlines? ?Stock and Commodity Trading Overcome by Program Robots and Derivative Hedging? ?Working Group on Financial Markets Logs In Overtime? ?Massive Reliquifaction Now Exceeds Unheard of Levels? I?m still on alert for the inevitable HedgeHog failure. Quarter end resuts will be forthcoming soon. We?ll see how many of these ?market neutral? funds are still standing. Maybe that will start a run on the Paper Pyramid, Hypertiger-style. As for today?s trading, more +1200 TICKs rolled in, and the VXN plummeted to new lows. Fear continues to accelerate. Fear of missing the 85 point move on the Nasdaq when Saddam is captured or found dead. Fear of being left behind on the consumer spending and capital spending spree to be unleashed once the war is over. Will this rally happen? Wall Street is predicting it. So far, Wall Street predictions are coming true, egged on by the Bullhorning of ?double bottoms? and ?war rallies?, etc. I have the feeling that the bulls are running out of time to launch the next leg up. Bears are too scared to press their bets, since every day there is some type of stop-clearing intraday blowout which scares out the short sellers. For what its worth, the AskResearch money flow index is topped out on the DIA and SPY, but has already rolled to the downside on the QQQ. That tells me that buyers have been coming in on the weakness, and short selling has been kept to a minimum. More downside is imminent. A successful pullback is usually accompanied by greedy shorts piling on, sending the money flow index down temporarily while the MACD holds the line. But that hasn?t happened this time. Way too much buying power has already been used up. Now for some portfolio tracking. The Abby Joseph Cohen ?Planet of the Apes? portfolio is down 24.8% since January 15, 2002. The Barton Biggs ?Tech Wreck? portfolio is down 6.3% since January 1, 2003. The ?I Dare You? short portfolio, opened on October 22 with three $100 stocks (AZO, UNH, FRX) was supposed to be closed on March 22, 6 months later. Since I was away, I neglected to get the closing prices then. So as of today, the portfolio is up 8.9% for 6 months and 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sphinxter Posted April 1, 2003 Report Share Posted April 1, 2003 Guddammint Mark! I can't concentrate! When are you going to reveal the top half of your new Avatar? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Personally, I suggest a pixel row per week, but I like to be teased. Didn't get to say it yesterday, but I am very gald you are back from vacation. I love your style and perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calculus Posted April 1, 2003 Report Share Posted April 1, 2003 The VXN and VIX certainly look attractive at these levels. Anybody else nibbling at buying volatility? Been buying some May $27 QQQ puts but don't know whether to add by keeping it simple or doing some delta hedging? Any other ideas on how to play the vol here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simple guy Posted April 1, 2003 Report Share Posted April 1, 2003 We are getting close to a top here soon... top as in one more little blast up coming... the final C of the ABC corrective off the March 12 lows.... and the final Big C off the ABC larger count from Oct 9 lows.... Wave 4 is coming to an end, and SG predicts on or around April 9th will be the top... Bradley Model probably inverted??? Here is an excerpt from my SG Waves thread tonight... you may want to go read it, its kind of cool... filled with Fibo Nacchos and everything else... and a CHART In summary.... A wave up to Dec 2 took about 38 (2 fibo naccho numbers) trading days from Oct 9 lows... (isnt that cool or what??) Then...a fibonacci 55 trading days to february 13th QQQ major lows of 23.32 Followed by 21 fibonacci trading days into March 12-13 window, marking a higher low Followed by 8 fibonacci days up counting the 12-13 window to March 21 window high. Followed by 8 days into tomorrow sometime, into a ST, higher low....*25.04 or 25.21) Followed by a possible 5, 8, or 13 days up.... LIkely 5 days to the 9th, which would make sense because C waves are often much shorter than A waves, and in this bear market they have been. Typically .618 is a good duration of the A wave. Since A was 8 days, C would be 5 days.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 1, 2003 Report Share Posted April 1, 2003 They won't be buying this news: American Airlines jet held in isolation today in San Jose after arriving from Tokyo with three suspected SARS cases on board. It will be BIG NEWS tonight, whether it's the real deal or just a scare. It's just a matter of time either way...and the point of recognition for SARS is upon our shores. Da Boys are going to run the numbers tonight to figure out the impact that the FEAR FACTOR will have on our economy. Run the numbers for yourself...and contemplate what happens when people stop getting on planes, during a war, during pre-announcement and earnings warning season, when the March Retail Sales numbers are released. There's your SHOCK AND AWE. Don't be long. Short airlines and cruise lines and long the miners. Plunger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest AssMaster Posted April 1, 2003 Report Share Posted April 1, 2003 They won't be buying this news: American Airlines jet held in isolation today in San Jose after arriving from Tokyo with three suspected SARS cases on board. It will be BIG NEWS tonight, whether it's the real deal or just a scare. It's just a matter of time either way...and the point of recognition for SARS is upon our shores. Da Boys are going to run the numbers tonight to figure out the impact that the FEAR FACTOR will have on our economy. Run the numbers for yourself...and contemplate what happens when people stop getting on planes, during a war, during pre-announcement and earnings warning season, when the March Retail Sales numbers are released. There's your SHOCK AND AWE. Don't be long. Short airlines and cruise lines and long the miners. Plunger. Way ahead of ya...bought some NEM June 30 calls today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted April 1, 2003 Report Share Posted April 1, 2003 11-15 months left in the countdown to POR. Maybe sooner if we get the 10 Sigma... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crooked_analyst Posted April 1, 2003 Report Share Posted April 1, 2003 Doc... Can you add Face Fasks and Respirators to your Bookstore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest bidhitter Posted April 1, 2003 Report Share Posted April 1, 2003 Face it. It's Over. Today confirmed day 1 of new downcycle. Down into mid April. We're not gonna see 910 by mid April. What we're gonna see is Cliff City. Now bulls do have one hope. One thing...again, just becasue day 1 began today doesn't necessarily mean today was top. Although I believe the price levels support it, the only prob I see is with Ds at 25 on the daily right now. We could easily see day or so of rally here before falling to correct the o/s nature. I usually dont see down cycles start with this low of a daily Ds. But anything can happen. For this new down you can expect the first half low to be about day 6 or 7 and the second half low on the last day, day 13. From day 6 on, look for a small rally with ~2 of the next 3 days up, and then a decline to end the cycle on the last 3 days. It is the last days that offer the edge. If they are to be down days as they were expected to be in the down cycle then one should be looking at a buying climax somewhere around day 10 or so. As the market is climaxing that day it will be a great opportunity to sell as OBV deteriorates. If OBV does not decline then look for a sell on weakness overnight or at the open. This is because the recent rally is over and the expectation and probability is high that the by the 13th day we will see a close below the mid cycle low close. Let the Q1 earnings warnings roll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maximummark Posted April 1, 2003 Report Share Posted April 1, 2003 Long ICN on SARS problems, short Asian airline ADRs on travel advisories...now looking like 10 Sigma on or shortly after 5/15/2003...market showing absolutely zero recognition so likely more of the same gaming so marvelously chronicled here, and breakdown a week or less out...DHB earnings pop worked to a T, FONR languishes with the oil trusts, oh well...Ozark or Michigan bound soon, and short to the end... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDeepBlueSea Posted April 1, 2003 Report Share Posted April 1, 2003 They won't be buying this news: American Airlines jet held in isolation today in San Jose after arriving from Tokyo with three suspected SARS cases on board. It will be BIG NEWS tonight, whether it's the real deal or just a scare. It's just a matter of time either way...and the point of recognition for SARS is upon our shores. Da Boys are going to run the numbers tonight to figure out the impact that the FEAR FACTOR will have on our economy. Run the numbers for yourself...and contemplate what happens when people stop getting on planes, during a war, during pre-announcement and earnings warning season, when the March Retail Sales numbers are released. There's your SHOCK AND AWE. Don't be long. Short airlines and cruise lines and long the miners. Plunger. I had a look at the WHO (World Health Organization) site: WHO: Cumulative SARS Update The death rate is currently running at about 3.5%. Offhand, I'd guess that this comparable to typical community-acquired pneunomia and flu, possibly lower. As with any serious pneumonia, the elderly, the immunocomprised, those with heart conditions, and possibly diabetes are most at risk. By comparison, the death rate from the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 was about 33%. Reality check: speakers on Dr. Lionel Mandell of McMaster University Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 1, 2003 Report Share Posted April 1, 2003 Deep Blue: Good detective work. Earlier this year, people freaked out about getting on cruise ships for fear of contracting the runs...and it put a major dent in their profits and altered their cancellation policies (no more safety net). Tell cruisers they'll only have a 3.5% chance of dying as a result of their cruise vacation...see how that goes down. Perception is reality in a fearful society where the news is in your face 24/7. Plunger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madame Wrecked Him Posted April 1, 2003 Report Share Posted April 1, 2003 I had a look at the WHO (World Health Organization) site: WHO: Cumulative SARS Update The death rate is currently running at about 3.5%. DBS, the way I understand it, the relatively low death rate now could change if greater numbers of people start acquiring SARS and hospitals can't cope with the influx. Although they haven't figured out the right treatment, I understand patients are bing treated pretty intensively and I would guess this is a factor in patient recovery. WH tells me the hospital he operates in only has about 15 ventilators. Although there is another hospital, that doesn't comfort me much given that our city has over 200k inhabitants and closer to half a million people if you factor in the neighbouring areas. I suspect a large part of the anticipated financial impact from SARS will not result from the actual numbers of people contracting it (unless it gets totally out of hand), but rather the impact of the fear factor which will lead to curtailed business and leisure travel and increased spending on precautionary measures. MWH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjkst27 Posted April 1, 2003 Report Share Posted April 1, 2003 Anyone notice a whopping increase in the SEC fees (feces?) on their trades today? Mine are double or so what they were yes turd day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted April 1, 2003 Report Share Posted April 1, 2003 This market is beyond sick, its demented...trying to relive the old glory daze...pathetic, sad. Just can't bow out gracefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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