Glossary Part 2

[brian4]

Bearman_ I know where futures are-what is important is where they are in relation to fair value-go to programtrading.com and read the definition of fair value and then you will see WHY a lot of us wait for it-trade safe!

[Guest]

MOUSE!!!

 

yew LOUT!!! it's ANECTDOTAL, SNOT anadotal!

 

BARE is ?MOST ANNOYED with Igor who also IGNORED his directive to invent "a better MOUSEtrap" beFUR running off to Transylvania. He didn't even bother to wait FUR a FULL MOON.

 

HRFF is now staring at both a RIF and drop in productivity at his laboratory...

 

oh. y'all should go read http://www.dailyreckoning.com 's latest. Sez the YELLOW PERIL (China) is going to git us all. SNOT if, but WHEN and when it DOES, all of Asia will fall in line.

 

HRFF's ex-girlfriend was married FUR years to a WWII vet who warned decades ago the Chinese would be the real threat to America in the future, economically, militarily, globally, etc.

 

Looking more and more like he may be RIGHT.

 

And if this madman in NKor does something rASSh? on Tues. that REALLY could bolox thingz up, wot?

I stand corrupted.

BTW BARE, it's BOLLIX SNOT bolox!

[scottcardiff]

A quick glance at the charts leaves me with the impression that the bear case needs SP 1040 to hold as resistance for the CRASH to 525-535 scenario to stay in play.

 

The Nascrap needs 1890-1937 zone to hold as resistance for the CRASH to 950 area to stay in play.

 

Couple interesting points.

 

1. Both indexes are still retracing the right shoulder/below neckline move of the 5 year head/shoulder patterns they formed from 1997-2002. I've seen hundreds of head/shoulder charts where the stock crashed below the neckline and then retraced 62% or 78% of that crash move, landing in back above the neckline, only then to "CRASH" to their measured targets. RIMM in late 2000 was a perfect example.

 

2. Jimmy Jones Cramer is publically humiliating bears. He is an idiot and needs faded in the worst way. Bears have completely given in, except for Fleck.

 

3. TRIN readings are possibly at the highest overbought levels in history.

 

4. Both index targets are 50% downmoves from projected highs. Nascrap 1940 to 950. SPX 1040 to 525.

 

5. This is really out there, but downtrend channel support on both indexes point to these crash targets possibly being reached in October or November.

 

Above SP 1040 and Nascrap 1940 and this particular bearish interpretation of the charts is scrapped.

[Sphinxter]

Can someone point me to any info/articles regarding the current and future problems of govt. deficit spending?

As much as I've been able to educate my Dad regarding the state of the economy and the best place for his money, he's still a rabid Shrub/Limbaugh supporter. I sympathize with him to the extent that he's retired military, but I wish I could shake his misinformed, neo-con bias.

Yeah - send him here to The Grandfathers Economic Report.

 

An incredible site that first turned me away from the bright lights of crapville. The grandfather (literally) has put together at least 20 comprehensive reports on everything from our debt levels to our edcuational performance.

 

Each trend is decidedly negative.

 

The guy doesn't come across as having any particular political bent so I would imagine the site to be about as traversable for your dad as any. It's a lot of graphs but they come with great, short and to the point text-wraps.

 

Good luck. Hope that helps.

[stormydaze]

MOUSE!!!

 

yew LOUT!!! it's ANECTDOTAL, SNOT anadotal!

 

BARE is ?MOST ANNOYED with Igor who also IGNORED his directive to invent "a better MOUSEtrap" beFUR running off to Transylvania. He didn't even bother to wait FUR a FULL MOON.

 

HRFF is now staring at both a RIF and drop in productivity at his laboratory...

 

oh. y'all should go read http://www.dailyreckoning.com 's latest. Sez the YELLOW PERIL (China) is going to git us all. SNOT if, but WHEN and when it DOES, all of Asia will fall in line.

 

HRFF's ex-girlfriend was married FUR years to a WWII vet who warned decades ago the Chinese would be the real threat to America in the future, economically, militarily, globally, etc.

 

Looking more and more like he may be RIGHT.

 

And if this madman in NKor does something rASSh? on Tues. that REALLY could bolox thingz up, wot?

I stand corrupted.

BTW BARE, it's BOLLIX SNOT bolox!

[BartTheBear]

A quick glance at the charts leaves me with the impression that the bear case needs SP 1040 to hold as resistance for the CRASH to 525-535 scenario to stay in play.

 

The Nascrap needs 1890-1937 zone to hold as resistance for the CRASH to 950 area to stay in play.

 

Couple interesting points.

 

1. Both indexes are still retracing the right shoulder/below neckline move of the 5 year head/shoulder patterns they formed from 1997-2002. I've seen hundreds of head/shoulder charts where the stock crashed below the neckline and then retraced 62% or 78% of that crash move, landing in back above the neckline, only then to "CRASH" to their measured targets. RIMM in late 2000 was a perfect example.

 

2. Jimmy Jones Cramer is publically humiliating bears. He is an idiot and needs faded in the worst way. Bears have completely given in, except for Fleck.

 

3. TRIN readings are possibly at the highest overbought levels in history.

 

4. Both index targets are 50% downmoves from projected highs. Nascrap 1940 to 950. SPX 1040 to 525.

 

5. This is really out there, but downtrend channel support on both indexes point to these crash targets possibly being reached in October or November.

 

Above SP 1040 and Nascrap 1940 and this particular bearish interpretation of the charts is scrapped.

They could spit from here and hit 1040.

 

I take it what your saying is this thing needs to start dropping immediately or bears are toast.

[purdymouth]

Asian debt withdrawal threat to US deficit

 

No worries. Everything is fine.

[martialcomp]

If tomorrow isn't a down day, I will be shocked!

 

Bush comes on to tell us that WE need to pay for re-building a country that is sitting on BILLIONS in oil reserves?

 

I am sure there are factors there like special deals to Syria, Russia, (Govt deals that Iraq had made with sympathizers to their cause), but, no matter how you look at it...spending billions in taxpayer dollars to rebuild a country sitting on BILLIONS in oil reserves is insane.

 

The markets are going to see this as govt spending and deficits out of control and an eventual tax increase to boot.

 

Bonds could do a Steve Mcqueen 180 and actually sell off tomorrow!

[Pigeon Drop]

I'm in San Jose. Would prefer a Bay Area get together, but if need to go to SoCal would consider it.

 

I'd like to see this excess I keep reading about. Don't really see it here, maybe I'm not looking in the right places. Neighbor put the house on the market today, asking price is 10% lower than identical house sold 5/2002 at the peak I saw here. Paper says "median single family house" which was $535K in 2001 was $493K for the first 6 mos of this year.

[brian4]

Gentleman for what it's worth we break1014-.14 we going down we break 1007 go short with both hands-Trade safe!

[Old Habits]

OK, here's my logic on why the XAU and HUI could continue up for awhile:

 

It seems like the golds are acting like the Nasdaq.

 

A rolling series of breakouts.

 

Note that one week, BGO, GSS, and NEM explode up on giant volume.

 

The next week, while BGO and GSS rest, it might be KRY and WHT's turn. Or maybe ABX.

 

In the meantime, GG and GLG are going nowhere.

 

Then suddenly, out of nowhere, when people least expect it, GFI, AU and HMY blast off.

 

Note that as of today GG and GLG still haven't gone anywhere.

 

And SSRI and PAAS haven't gone anywhere either, since their initial high volume blast.

 

So we have a rotating series of high volume breakouts or short squeezes.

 

Same thing happening in the Nasdaq. Breakouts seems to rotate from Semi's to Nutworkers, to Internuts, or whatever sector is Bullhorned in the PreMarket.

 

That's what makes me nervous about any meaningful decline now. We just don't seem to have a pattern of all sectors topping out at the same time on weak volume, ready to roll to the downside.

 

Quite the opposite.

 

Bullish surprises (i.e. high volume breakouts) seem to be come out of nowhere....

 

Agree completely Windy. I just don't see Doc's painful HUI retrace anytime soon. Maybe a painful week, but not a reversal in the trend. We may be seeing the BEGINNINGS of a bubble.

 

For anyone interested, Steven Saville offers a free 30 day trial on his site, The speculative investor. He does look for a major top in gold within the next 6 months, but thinks the rand has bottomed. Not sure he's crazy about DROOY, but he is bullish on other S.A. miners. Check it out, it's free.

 

Count me in for suckass, er. sackass :wink2:

[Guest]

Perhaps you should call the SoCal chapter LOSANGELASS.

[scottcardiff]

Another interesting item.

 

The four major crashes of the last 30 years have all involved a bullish pattern failing to meet it's target.

 

The 1974 crash involved an inverse head/shoulder pattern failing to meet it's projected price target.

 

The 1987 and 1998 crashes both involved tight "flag" formations falling well short of their targets leading to a liquidation of all margin accounts who had gamed the chart pattern on the bull side and resulting in a crash as all bears had covered on the breakout.

 

In 1972 the SP broke out of a 3 year inverse head/shoulder pattern that targeted 142. It topped out at 120 in early 1973 before crashing to 63 in 20 months.

 

In 1987, the SP ran from 241 to 303 in 15 weeks and formed an 8 week flag that targeted 357 on the breakout at 295. The SP reached 338 before crashing to 216 in only 9 weeks.

 

In 1998, the SP ran from 913 to 1132 and formed a very tight 11 week flag that targeted 1344 on the 1125 breakout. The SP reached 1190 before crashing to 923 in 12 weeks.

 

In 2000, the SP formed a 200 point wide triangle that broke out to the upside and targeted 1705. It promptly failed and resulted in 12 month 600 point move to the downside.

 

In 2003, the SP ran from 912 to 1015 and formed an 11 week flag that targets 1112 on the breakout.

 

Will the SP crash now that bears have capitulated on this flag breakout? Or will the target be reached? And what of the 1144 target of the July 2002 - May 2003 basing pattern? Will the inability of both patterns to reach their respective targets result in a crash to 525 level?

 

The table has been set. Everybody is long for the anticipated targets of the bullish chart set-ups, which is IMPERATIVE if a market is to crash. Markets only crash when both buyers have bought and shorts have covered.

 

The 4 major crashes of the past 30 years have ALL INVOLVED a bullish pattern failing. The markets have broken out of bullish patterns and have traders looking at targets that are considerably higher than the BEARISH fibonacci resistance levels of SP 1040.

 

Of course the bullish scenario is that the 5 year head/shoulder pattern fails by trading above the right shoulder area at 1180, resulting in a massive bear pattern failure and a run to SP 2300.

[crooked_analyst]

Can someone point me to any info/articles regarding the current and future problems of govt. deficit spending?

As much as I've been able to educate my Dad regarding the state of the economy and the best place for his money, he's still a rabid Shrub/Limbaugh supporter. I sympathize with him to the extent that he's retired military, but I wish I could shake his misinformed, neo-con bias.

Yeah - send him here to The Grandfathers Economic Report.

 

An incredible site that first turned me away from the bright lights of crapville. The grandfather (literally) has put together at least 20 comprehensive reports on everything from our debt levels to our edcuational performance.

 

Each trend is decidedly negative.

 

The guy doesn't come across as having any particular political bent so I would imagine the site to be about as traversable for your dad as any. It's a lot of graphs but they come with great, short and to the point text-wraps.

 

Good luck. Hope that helps.

That's both an awesome and scary site.....great read...any West Coast ASS that cannot or will not spend the $$ for a room is welcome to stay at our abode.....first come, first served....

[martialcomp]

Pidgeon...visit us in So Cal (yes...that is at least interest in a So Cal meet)

 

We are PSYCHO here!

 

We buy HUGE SUV's and think nothing of spending $50+ just to fill them.

 

We are narcissistic to the Nth degree, not even noticing anyone or anything.

 

We use cell phones EVERYWHERE literally hoping for a phone call from the same people we see all of the time.

 

We return big screen TV's because they "smell bad".

 

We clean our carpets until the water itself used to clean can be drank as "drinking water".

 

We buy marble tables and aristocratic furniture in hopes of later finding out that, we aren't dreaming, we REALLY ARE royalty...

 

We drive gigantic trucks with flying saucer rims and 20-26" wheels and tires. Meanwhile, the credit card bill for $8000 for the tire and rim combination comes in and we try to figure out how being a Circuit City camcorder salesman is going to pay the bills.

 

Out here, we live off our parents retirement savings (what little was left in their 401k) and their "housing bubble" priced home that they sold. Meanwhile, the poor parents move east and live in 200 degree weather in Las Vegas and Arizona where housing is still relatively cheap.

 

We buy huge diamond earing sets for $1500 dollars to wear even though cubic zirconias look the same except under a microscope.

 

We buy laptops, TV's DVD players, home theatre systems or virtually any electronic item we can get that will have that 0% for 12 months sticker on it.

 

We go on lavish vacations even though we have nothing saved, have car payments, haven't paid files for taxes in 10+ years, etc.

 

 

I personally am not a trader, (I am more interested in precious metals and maybe a few bond funds) but it would be interesting to meet people with some common sense in a world is insanity...