PileDriver Posted March 29, 2003 Report Share Posted March 29, 2003 tig 'ole - I know this is very, very anal-retentive of me, but HUI/GOLD ratio chart should probably be linear instead of log (ratios are non-linear anyway). I don't know why it couldn't be log, but just doesn't seem right... I am truly amazed this market hasn't fallen through the floor. This world is ten seconds 'till midnight. The "run for the exits" will be true in every sense of the phrase. True. It feels as if everyone's really dragging out that very last haul of that very last bit of tobacco before hitting the filter of that last smoke even as the firing squad takes aim... It's like a fricking game of flinch between the bears and bulls. Neither want to give in and both have their eyes peeled for the exits. My wag is the bulls will be rushing towards it soon...too bad that there's only one exit door and a hell of alot of bulls to accomodate than if bears were rushing for it. Oh well, like I've been saying...panic now avoid the rush! Re COT, I agree with Doc. Even if you were to follow them (not seeing it as Doc) 1) The current reading is only neutral (just slightly net long, not massively so) 2) They lead the market turn by a significant time period. 3) See how the next week or two play out, perhaps a one week anomoly. I'd trust VIX, p/c ratio, AAII/II survey as a better and more timely sentiment indicator than COT. I highly doubt we are going to see a significant rally until we first see a "terror low". One so damn scarey that even us Stoolies will be terrified to buy. :grin: P.S. With that in mind, March 12th didn't quite cut the mustard now did it?! :wink2: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dustbowl Posted March 29, 2003 Report Share Posted March 29, 2003 Mjkst: Subversive radio huh? Try reality. http://www.ala.org/alaorg/oif/executiveorder13233.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjkst27 Posted March 29, 2003 Report Share Posted March 29, 2003 Mjkst: Subversive radio huh? Try reality. http://www.ala.org/alaorg/oif/executiveorder13233.html Ummmm, I was kidding Dustybowl. Thanks for the linkage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted March 29, 2003 Report Share Posted March 29, 2003 no need to get fancy here either. That rally was yet another "spectacular" v-shape short-covering buying panic that fooled everyone (bulls and bears) and is ending in the same usual slow roll-over death top scenario. Just like how the March Madness rally terminated, and the May 02 rally, and the June 02 rally, and the July 02 rally, and the August 02 rally, and the Jan 03 rally, and the... It's over...T-O-A-S-T If you're not trading em and feeling the market out like Merciless says (just analyzing it) the SPX will be below 800 and you'll be scratching your head still in cash wondering what the heck happened saying "damn it, I missed it again!" :wink2: Exact opposite of bull market where sharp scarey declines spiked the fear gauges and made it extremely hard to buy yet she turned around and went on to new highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dustbowl Posted March 29, 2003 Report Share Posted March 29, 2003 Mjk: Where was the winky face? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 29, 2003 Report Share Posted March 29, 2003 Dusty, I kind of tuned out his specifics as I was doing other things and knew what he was going to say. He just gets guests on who will verify the same swill Kudlow always spews. Tonight he had on some kid with title like "Supreme Hotentot" of "Subway Partners." This kid's grasp made me thing he was probably no different from you and me except he was less articulate, absolutely clueless and had a rich Daddy who set him up because he grasp of the markets as well as the English language was, to put it diplomatically, well below average. Kudlow asked him what he invests in and he told Kudlow he "plays the Q's." He seemed excited just to be on TV being interviewed. Larry probably found him at a Cocaine Anonomous meeting. Larry seemed this afternoon on Maria's show and on his own even more hyper and tense than his usual hyper and tense. Reminded me of the expression, "I'm dancing as fast as I can." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjkst27 Posted March 29, 2003 Report Share Posted March 29, 2003 Mjk: Where was the winky face? Sorry. Sometimes Fokker and I start yankin' each other's chains, and I guess I forgot we had an audience Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dustbowl Posted March 29, 2003 Report Share Posted March 29, 2003 Mousey: Thanks. What I want to know is who pays that idiot Krudlow for consulting services? Sheesh!!!! Waiting on the implosion on camera. I need to start saving those shows on Tivo. We will want that for the Stoolie Archive Hall of Fame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigWave Posted March 29, 2003 Report Share Posted March 29, 2003 Mjk: ?Where was the winky face? ? Sorry. Sometimes Fokker and I start yankin' each other's chains, and I guess I forgot we had an audience What happened to Pitt? EDIT- Too much pinot noir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted March 29, 2003 Report Share Posted March 29, 2003 Fokker-You mean they got radio in Vermont-next you'll tell me they got black and white TV-Didja see that damage in the shopping mall in Kuwait City-looked like ABIGAIL'S the morning after the STOOLIE MEETING-Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted March 29, 2003 Report Share Posted March 29, 2003 yet another p/c ratio distortion today http://stocks.internetnews.com/close/artic...2171911,00.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjkst27 Posted March 29, 2003 Report Share Posted March 29, 2003 What happened to Pitt? Ouch sore subject. Marquette had the hosses to take us down. It was another great season for us though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 29, 2003 Report Share Posted March 29, 2003 Dusty, 15 years or more ago Kudlow was Chief Economic Stratagist at Bear Stearns. He was one of the top dogs there until the white powder wiped him out. Nowadays he can not enter an major investment house through the front door. Before Bear he was one of the designers of the trickle down program in the Reagan administration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
summoner Posted March 29, 2003 Report Share Posted March 29, 2003 Stan Harley called the turn on the golds in his interview earlier this week , 81 day cycle low ...uncanny. Closed my puts this afternoon about where I bought them last week as I will not be able to monitor the markets early next week. Comp chart is looking bullish short term, would keep an eye on SGs count....EBAY and AMGN stalling...Cant wait to read the weekend anals and do some DD on more tech garbage. When do the BOYZ need to start expensing options? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dustbowl Posted March 29, 2003 Report Share Posted March 29, 2003 Here is an interesting and funny read on Krudlow from someone who worked with him in the Reagan Adnin. http://www.parida.com/lk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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