wrecked him Posted March 14, 2003 Report Share Posted March 14, 2003 FWIW, the good news, at least in my mind, is that these "Rallies" are fast and furious. ....and while they sting, they are generally at the top in days, not months....I play Options, mostly and have been "Duked on" in my PM's for a sizeable chunk o' change....that being said, the best is yet to come..... crooked your avatar,oh the horror,the inhumanity of it all. bdrech i think i made a mistake last night in an extended commentary,a commentary about your avatar a la freud last night--i meant your avatar, not another one--its frightening Bdrech This is nothing to worry about. What you are seeing in this avatar is the classic aging pattern that is all to familiar to those of us in the field of plastic surgery. The initial image is of course that of Maria. The second image is what Maria is going to look like in 20 years. Or maybe, on second thought, it's the other way around Regards WH wh my take is less benign as i tend to see it as a hideous ovidian transmogrification as done by a sadistic iranian cosmetic surgeon specializing mallio-facial anomalies bear drech That gothic thang is a wonder to behold Regards WH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 14, 2003 Report Share Posted March 14, 2003 These last couple of days have been enough to make me want to bail this "investing" stuff I do. Tuesday night I grabbed some puts on AXP (American Express) at 2.25. Wednesday morning we had a spike up in the opening hour that reversed then climbed up again enough to spook me thinking OPEX was starting then. So, I put in an order to sell those contracts only to see the true direction of AXP heading down. Tried to cancel my order only see that all the contracts had been sold and some lucky (stoolie?) investor dude picked them up at 2.35 for an almost instantaneous leap to 2.70. I get real nervous around OPEX starting the Wednesday of the week prior to the last full week before expiry. On Thursday network problems starting showing up, very slow updates on broadband. Switched the router over to dial-up and had the same problems. I got a glimpse of the market heading up then and with the crippled network I sold all my short term options. Just dumped them. If anyone noticed, I wasn't posting PCR charts the second half of Wednesday. I tried to post them only to get a MS 'is your network cable plugged in' help screen. I couldn't access the site to post and didn't get most of the graphics when I did hit CapStool. Now I'm glad I unloaded those options. But I'm uncomfortable with how this rally progressed today. It wasn't the straight up stick of manipulation, but a steady cycled climb. Didn't see crazy maniac ticks for the bulk of the price gains. Gives me the impression this rally could last for a couple of weeks to a month. Hope not. I bought 200 QQQ puts near the peak price today at .5 only to watch them go to .45 (-18.63%) and .4 (-28.64%) briefly before the day was out. I'm banking on a some retrenchment since the QQQs are at strong resistance/triangle top. Break even is just under .55 (+1.37%), will sell at break even if I can't get a fix on cycles from doc assuming we get some selling in the morning. If we have a 38% retrace, I should see the contracts go to .65 netting a modest 21.38% return; selling at .6 would be an 11.38% return. We'll see if this plays out. I don't expect this to be an easy ride. Probably will see a ramp up in the open just enough to scare me out of my puts or to buy hedging calls only for the ramp to peter out. That's my fear; that's the risk I'm taking. This is nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tig 'Ol Bitties Posted March 14, 2003 Report Share Posted March 14, 2003 By the way, has anyone read Faber's latest book Tomorrow's Gold yet? Well worth the price of admission in this man's opinion.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
torah man Posted March 14, 2003 Report Share Posted March 14, 2003 gtn, tell me whether you took your profit out of that RYVYX position or whether you are staying in. i need to know what to do in the morning. thanks, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted March 14, 2003 Report Share Posted March 14, 2003 Aloha Riverboaters!! Whoa, what a day!! Wished I went long before I left. Looks to me like a massive Hans Hans Hans Hans Brinker Panic Buy and a Treasury Blowoff, so now we have to live with the famous "asset allocation" nonsense. I agree with Oyster. This thing is going up until May timeframe. Good time to be on vacation. Maybe I'll put in some HeatMapper long orders on the worst of the worst and see what happens...... See ya guys later...... 82 degrees, sunny, big surf, half naked girls everywhere.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pee Brain Posted March 14, 2003 Report Share Posted March 14, 2003 the naz is down like how much? 75%? and what is there; rioting in the streets, people rushing to cash, legislation to protect pension funds, SEC rules to require companies to support pension funds yields? no there is complacency and fear of missing the "new bull market." a buddy is buying an $850,000 house with $300,000 down. he is geting a $550,000 interest only loan at 4.5% fixed for 5 years then rolls to an ARM. payments, P&I, a little over $2,000 a month. sounds good, as long as rates dont jump and values dont crater - at least he's putting big bucks down - but see, there is no fear, no worry - no thought to ever paying back the debt. gee, i wonder who fostered that type of thinking? BTW, he live in a beautiful 4br/2bth plus office in encinitas, CA - his payments are $1,400 a month. but, his wife wants a NEW ONE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted March 14, 2003 Report Share Posted March 14, 2003 Buttugly quote from 3/11: I spoke to my retired friend in St Bartsand he said it's a "minute to midnight". He told me to "fasten my belt" it's going to be a wild ride from here. Up BIG then down HUGE. ? Still can't rule out being in a third wave and if so they can be very volatile with tons of whipsaws and head-fakes. I still don't trust today's move after opening up the hood and seeing what really went on - NOTHING! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crapitulate Posted March 14, 2003 Report Share Posted March 14, 2003 Had a great day today...if you consider being stuck in RYVNX a great day. Did not sell though....I want to see what tomorrow looks like ( or do I?) Maybe I'll get some of it back. I should really consider hedging. Any way, a loss on this trip isn't so bad since I had a nice winning streak going on. We all take our lumps sometimes. Today's lump was nasty. I was praying for 4:00, it couldn't come fast enough. If I get creamed again tomorrow, I'll sit back reload and pick a spot for the next round. Life does go on. Economic news today was crappy. Company news was crappy. Political news was crappy. PCR wasn't bullish. VXN wasn't that bullish. In fact ...the weekly charts aren't bullish, yet. Sometimes it makes no sense. I need new indicators, but, alass- it was only one day. Good Luck to all tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gruff Posted March 14, 2003 Report Share Posted March 14, 2003 Old Habits: Thanks for the kind words. The times I have lost the most money have been the times I locked myself into a one sided view of how things "ought" to play out and was not prepared to go with the mkt when it suddenly did a 180 like yesterday and today. Ideology ... either way.... is MUCHO BAD KARMA when trying to trade the mkts, IMO. This is a Monster Killer Psycho Grizzley and it takes no prisoners! A day like today can wipe out weeks or months of hard gotten gains as I'm sure you know. I know it from bitter experience. Sometimes I think there ARE no bulls trading, just bears shorting and covering against each other. The HORROR! When ye limit yr comments to the mkts, and, especially, when ye share your hard-earned experiences, I enjoy yr posts. A 'day like today' did exactly what ye mention to one of my closest trading buddies. Three-and-a-bit months profits wiped put. BOOM! 50% of his account gone. I also agree the mkt at this point in time is mostly traders hitting on each other. Bear markets are for professional, full-time traders only, imo. J6P is definitely better off in cash. The real horror will be when all that remains are the proggies trading against one another. success! gruff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purdymouth Posted March 14, 2003 Report Share Posted March 14, 2003 truth is always stranger than fiction night all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubadub Posted March 14, 2003 Report Share Posted March 14, 2003 Dumpabuck: "Do you seriously seek to argue... that these are free mkts?" No. But what's it matter? The mkts are constantly changing. Three years ago we had $20 and $30 price swings on $200 and $300 stocks in one day and doctors were giving up their carreers to become daytraders! Ten(?) years or so ago the Nasdaq was a total racket and the spreads were sometimes $1 to $3 with big commissions. Now we have low volatility with day after day of drifting bloated mkts with sudden panics either way, kinda like emergency room work. Utter boredom or chaos. I don't know what is happening behind the scenes or really care. All I need to know is are we going up or down, and I try and keep it that simple without getting too bloodied which is damned hard to do. People are curious and always want to know "why." "WHY" is not necessary for me to make money... or lose it. I use some TA, some chart reading, my instincts, and that's about it. I try and filter out most of the news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDeepBlueSea Posted March 14, 2003 Report Share Posted March 14, 2003 Someone complained earlier about how the NDX was taking so long to drop. This article shows interesting examples of longer waves that are occurring in the movement of the indices. Hocus pocus and voodoo garbage? Perhaps. Worth checking out. Waves Now that is scary . . . I was about to post the image below from the same site in reply to your previous post The dark continuos line (the Weierstrass function) is the one of interest. As for voodoo, if one was going to try to predict the behaviour of the markets, then a good place to start might be to use techniques that have worked incredibly well in describing a very large class of other similar phenomena in the natural world. Such as the "renomalization group" and "power law" methods originally developed for condensed matter physics which deal with a collection of larger number of interacting entities (atoms, molecules, spins, etc.) as do the markets. That's what this group has done. Ironically, this is the first predictive method and paper I've read that I wouldn't dismiss offhand as voodoo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDeepBlueSea Posted March 14, 2003 Report Share Posted March 14, 2003 BTW, he live in a beautiful 4br/2bth plus office in encinitas, CA - his payments are $1,400 a month. but, his wife wants a NEW ONE! It would be a lot cheaper and more financial sound to just get a new wife. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 14, 2003 Report Share Posted March 14, 2003 Net/line probs all day, just the sort of day you don't need it too The rally last night started in UK/Europe.. UK/France/Germany ended 6%+. Netherlands was +10%. Now if you think that's sustainable I certainly don't... All Ords closed +2.1% which was quite a leap for us but checking out a few closing prices on stocks it seems to be just a jump up to the underside of recently broken support lines. An in depth viewing of charts on the w/e might bring forth a different story but I doubt it... My shorts sustained very little damage today, one even closed down so I'm not jumping to any conclusions re a continuing rally without very good reason to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ani Prolapse Posted March 14, 2003 Report Share Posted March 14, 2003 Yes, it it official folks! Ani's proprietary Smart Many (do not cofuse with Money) indicator gave clear sell signal today. Ameritrade index showing over 80% sellers less than 20% buyers. Those are indicators of at least intermediate top ( other way around happens at the bottom)- that's not a joke. I am sharing this tip with you, since I am feeling terribly guilty, several days ago I posted here my suspicion that the deal with "top Iraqi generals" has been made, and now the story emerges in very similar wording. The enemy infiltrated our hideout, folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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