2 floaters and a sinker Posted October 24, 2003 Report Share Posted October 24, 2003 2faas, I'm a bit confused now. Are you saying, very short term, we hit the bottom today and because we crossed the wedge we are going up to 1040-1050 before dropping again? Si. Usually when price breaks out of a declining wedge, the target is back at the base of the wedge, in this case 1040-50. Same is true in reverse on a risng wedge (price falls out, target is the base of the wedge). It doesn't always work that way, it could be just a head fake and we head down from here. Also, there is the issue of overthrows, etc. etc. The key is how price reacts when it comes back to test the top of the wedge (again, usually that happens). If it just sort of hangs around, the pattern will probably fail. If it takes off like a scalded dog, well... Thing is, when we're at a top or a congestion area, it's possible to have a falling wedge followed immediately by a rising wedge, by a falling wedge and so on. Happened all summer. Eventually, a breakout will lead to new highs or lows, but other indicators should help you figure that out. The reason I don't think we'll get much past 1050 on this attempt are the divergences setting up on the charts. But of course, they could be negated. That's why 1052 is important, beyond that and I'm wrong, I've misread the tape or the pattern simply failed. Beyond the initial target, wedges don't predict how far a breakout can go. But as you know, I really only care about being right in the short term. Hope that helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 24, 2003 Report Share Posted October 24, 2003 Si Senior. Munchies grass n' ass! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigWave Posted October 24, 2003 Report Share Posted October 24, 2003 It's becomng apparent to my idiot brain that this market will eat me alive unless I get futures and after-market capabilities. The NYSE is The Show, the real steamy action is in the dressing rooms and lot trailers/travel buses. The stacked actors are too tired and hung over to perform much during the day anymore. I've been thinking about this too..Think I'll check out IB this weekend...Lots of Stoolies seem to like it...Any thoughts from the intelligent fringe.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 24, 2003 Report Share Posted October 24, 2003 a little over 30 points shed off the Dow today a nice comfortable throttled daily decline, with a little closing rally action to suck in some more dip-buyers on the way down at this rate we'll be at almost exactly 8,000 by Christmas that is assuming the brakes can be kept on the selling via continual late-night futures buying, pre-market bullhorning, 10:30 and 2:30 Fed lobs of buy orders into the S&P pit, mutual fund goosing of their favorite stocks at the close, etc. i.e. business as usual (no conspiracy) and assuming there is no Event and curious George doesn't press any launch buttons by mistake and next week's religious festivals are all quiet and peaceful love and tolerance celebrations and corporate America continues its aggressive job creation and hiring of middle class Americans with high salaries and generous bonuses and guaranteed free health care and 100% pensions, and more people realize how undervalued houses are so decide to jump in and buy, etc. otherwise we could still have an historic crASSh from which the dip buyers will never recover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Howl Posted October 24, 2003 Report Share Posted October 24, 2003 About the distribution: It was pretty obvious this was happening with SOHU. They opened with a gap in the middle of the trading range since July. SOHU gained about 14%. This kind of volatility is normal for SOHU. Nothing to get excited about. But today's volume was a record. It was 3x average, 1.5x the reported float and 40% of all shares outstanding. This is not bullish, this is pure bullshit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
braincat Posted October 24, 2003 Report Share Posted October 24, 2003 Not at the least surprised at the action on the second half of the day: p/c ratio was running consistently above .9 yesterday in PM and today. Unfortunately it didn't fall to 1008-1010 where my broker was supposed to open new long positions for me, so I was left empty-handed for now. Good weekend all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sphinxter Posted October 24, 2003 Report Share Posted October 24, 2003 Didn't Mo-Mo mention yesterday that he'd be playing golf in Florida today? There's a phreakshow out here in Hell-A: Fires are turning the sky a color I most associate with routine Stage III smog alerts of my youth. "Look at the sky turn hell fire red. Somebody's house is burnin' down-down down-down...." Electric Ladyland. A masterpiece. My favorite is 1983 (a merman should I turn to be). The smoke is keeping temperatures down around here though. That whole album. Were I only to be allowed one album, Electric Ladyland would be it. Absolutely phenominal from start to finish. "Have, you, ever, beeeen..." #1 favorite track of all time. My other favorite tracks are "Rainy Day Dream Away" followed by "1983 (A Merman Should I turn To Be)" followed by "Voodoo Chile". I am a 100%, certified, Jimi nut. But I do carry a cross. For some inexplicable reason I experience guilt over the fact that Stevie Ray Vaughan's version of Little Wing, somehow seems superior to the original. Perhaps I'm comparing apples to rhinos but his version from "The Sky is Crying" is beyond magical to me. I have listened 100's of times and every time it seems new and fresh. Somehow he took Jimi's perfect arrangement and made it better. Is that possible? As for Jimi's music, always fresh whereas other music is tired on the 3rd listen. That's true talent. Music chanelling the soul so loudly that even I can recieve it. God bless 'em both. Still, I wonder, have I blasphemed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The brown one Posted October 24, 2003 Report Share Posted October 24, 2003 Thanks for the charts,Howl.Much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
summoner Posted October 24, 2003 Report Share Posted October 24, 2003 Braincat no worries your long will fill next week on the way down Off to catch a HS football game...can somebody post the highlights of Belkin chewing up and spitting out Kudlow and Creamer tonight...TIA Plan on shorting the Asians soon TRADE SAFE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigWave Posted October 24, 2003 Report Share Posted October 24, 2003 Totally agree about Jimi and SRV....SRV use to play Anderson Fair, a (HouTex) dive bar, weekly in the 70's for tips...Saw him with Jeff Beck about 3 months before he died..He opened and joined Jeff on stage for the last encore "Going Down". I like Jeff Beck, but Stevie smoked his butt... to the extent that Jeff shouldered his axe and fanned SRV's with a towel. till the end... Electric Ladyland and LSD 25, you know the rest... A long, long time ago, when I can still remember how the music made me smile.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted October 24, 2003 Report Share Posted October 24, 2003 I read the thread and gotta agree with Doc-again like the day before yesterday more freakin handwringing. As has been stated the market went DOWN, it was DOWN hard for the week, it has more DOWN to go as my pal END has already stated, as MH has stated as Downtick has stated. Is it a given it will bounce at 1004-NO its NOT-any break of 1004 is the SHORT of the year. Should it bounce ar 1004 (maybe) said bounce will be short and swift, just long enough to suck the Bullhorners in to their eyeballs-yr end will be much, much lower. Someone posted about the p/c ratio being too high because the bears got to BEARISH-rubbish. .94 is in fact lower than Wednesdays .98 and the 7 day average is totally benign and it's the 7 day that counts. Measured by past declines since the top get worried when it approaches the number 2 not.94. As MH stated all 3 fear indices show NO FEAR none at all take a look where they were at bottoms since the top, when the VIX hits 40 is when you worry about a bottom. Last night two very good traders who i respect were already calling an upmove today which they did not get if they call again for one Monday-I will once again disagree. Will I go long if 1004 holds?? in a word NO-I may cover a few puts and and put them back on higher but the bounce won't be large maybe 1041-44 and then we fall off a cliff into yr end. If you are short DEC. puts from near the highs you are laughing-enjoy the ride-with proper stops you're Trading Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sphinxter Posted October 24, 2003 Report Share Posted October 24, 2003 Here is something to think about the biggest scam (ramp) job in the world. Why would they let the market tank when the all-important shopping season is about to start? What about an all-impotent election votes buying seasons? Everyone is looking at the same picture and seeing liquidity is drying up, fed is not feeding, Nikkei charts comparison and the dump is coming tomorrow, but has anyone wonder, all this could be propagandas and the real feeding is coming from Bermuda triangle where liquidity is created in an instant, Emergency leak fixing and the callout charge charges are non existence. One can?t manage the market without some feeding from the invincible hands. We are dealing with crooks and if u just takes their words for what it is then they will take everyone down the wrong garden path. It?s a well manage show, if the liquidity was drying up then the volume, Speculation, commodity, bonds will get sold off and volume will die, spread will widen and system will collapse. Has anyone seen any symptoms yet? Toilet papers have gone down so The Joke and Nasty has got a haircut but no one has figured it out yet. Why shorts when one can buy Gold or something one is happy buying or take a break and come back in 2005 for the four-year cycle low play. I see a small drop in November so the next up cycle begins and end in January with new high then the vote buying rally start. Have I missed out something or I am just dreaming? Please someone wake me up before I get bullish. Feed, It's always possible tha the FEeD can continue to pump to the markets through unknown mechanisms. I have recently, in the past, and continuously postulated that such an event is possible. I am a certified nut who ascribes to the little believed theorem that humans act in their own self-limited interests bounded by the confines of their current institutional matrices. Few others believe this. HOWEVER AND REGARDLESS! The recent evidence clearly suggests that there is simply not enough liquidity to support both the bond AND the stock markets at the same time. One more month of declining re-fi madness, coupled to the increase in gubmint crack-whore spending, will end the fresh blood needed to keep this going. Best, S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Howl Posted October 24, 2003 Report Share Posted October 24, 2003 you are short DEC. puts from near the highs you are laughing-enjoy the ride-with proper stops you're Trading Safe! If I was short puts I'd be crying. :grin: For the rest, I fully agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crooked_analyst Posted October 24, 2003 Report Share Posted October 24, 2003 I read the thread and gotta agree with Doc-again like the day before yesterday more freakin handwringing. As has been stated the market went DOWN, it was DOWN hard for the week, it has more DOWN to go as my pal END has already stated, as MH has stated as Downtick has stated. Is it a given it will bounce at 1004-NO its NOT-any break of 1004 is the SHORT of the year. Should it bounce ar 1004 (maybe) said bounce will be short and swift, just long enough to suck the Bullhorners in to their eyeballs-yr end will be much, much lower. Someone posted about the p/c ratio being too high because the bears got to BEARISH-rubbish. .94 is in fact lower than Wednesdays .98 and the 7 day average is totally benign and it's the 7 day that counts. Measured by past declines since the top get worried when it approaches the number 2 not.94. As MH stated all 3 fear indices show NO FEAR none at all take a look where they were at bottoms since the top, when the VIX hits 40 is when you worry about a bottom. Last night two very good traders who i respect were already calling an upmove today which they did not get if they call again for one Monday-I will once again disagree. Will I go long if 1004 holds?? in a word NO-I may cover a few puts and and put them back on higher but the bounce won't be large maybe 1041-44 and then we fall off a cliff into yr end. If you are short DEC. puts from near the highs you are laughing-enjoy the ride-with proper stops you're Trading Safe! Brian, Been short via Oct., Nov. & Dec. DJX Puts and delivered my Octobers for a hefty loss...Sold some (Not all) Novembers this morning when we touched 9504 and am holding Dec. 92's & 95's....Made up October's loss and will be sluffing off my remaining November's on Monday or Tuesday. I'm in the camp that says we bounce at 1004ish and am buying Calls upon the sale of my Puts.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 24, 2003 Report Share Posted October 24, 2003 I'm with Downtick/Doc/B4. Sideways is good but we'll have to forget about the instant gratification for a bit. Patience will pay off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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