Hiding Bear Posted September 10, 2004 Report Share Posted September 10, 2004 Welcome to B4 The Bell! "Overstating the 2004 deficit," the center wrote, "could allow the president to announce significant 'progress' on the deficit in late October - shortly before Election Day - when the Treasury Department announces the final figures." Was this a wild accusation from a liberal think tank? No, it's conventional wisdom among experts. Two months ago Stanley Collender, a respected nonpartisan anal cyst, warned: "At some point over the next few weeks, the Office of Management and Budget will release the administration's midsession budget review and try to convince everyone the federal deficit is falling. Don't believe them." He went on to echo the center's analysis. The administration's standard procedure, he said, is to initially issue an unrealistically high deficit forecast, which is "politically motivated or just plain bad." Then, when the actual number comes in below the forecast, officials declare that the deficit is falling, even though it's higher than the previous year's deficit. So what's the real plan? Some not usually shrill people think that Mr. Bush will simply refuse to face reality until it comes crashing in: Paul Volcker, the former Federal Reserve chairman, says there's a 75 percent chance of a financial crisis in the next five years. http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/10/opinion/10krugman.html?hp A graphic view of the monetary base, and how the Fed is reacting to the election and the slowdown in retail sales: http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeyboardProspector Posted September 10, 2004 Report Share Posted September 10, 2004 The President of the San Fran Fed Bank, Janet Yellen, yesterday said a neutral level for the federal funds rate lies somewhere in the range of 3.5 to 4.5 percent.....and that's based on no uptick in inflation..... That would put the yield curve flat to 10 year. The carry Trade would be dead. But this is the most vibrant and growing economy in 20 years say the sooth sayers..... Do we need any more evidence that the economy is on a feeding tube and ventilator, and if (when) turned off, we will realize the patient has been dead for 2 years.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The brown one Posted September 10, 2004 Report Share Posted September 10, 2004 Keyboard:I think that's what happens when an economy makes its money by "coin and coupon clipping" and continues to tell everyone that it is a productive and vibrant economy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted September 10, 2004 Report Share Posted September 10, 2004 That would put the yield curve flat to 10 year. The carry Trade would be dead. Since the carry trade drives so much speculation, you could infer that Bubble II will be dead, too. And since a flat yield curve has preceded every recession, the economy would die as well. Kindly Doctor Leeson has been replaced by Doctor Kevorkian ... maybe it's a mercy killing after all ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted September 10, 2004 Report Share Posted September 10, 2004 Barring a last-minute change of heart by its recalcitrant unions, US Airways appears all but certain to seek bankruptcy protection on Sunday, people briefed on the situation said yesterday. The airline sought Chapter 11 protection in August 2002, a filing that also took place on a Sunday. It emerged in April 2003, backed by a $900 million package of federal loan guarantees, the largest awarded by the Air Transportation Stabilization Board. The airline's lead investor was the Retirement Systems of Alabama, which took a 36.5 percent stake in the airline and eight of 15 seats on its board in return for a $240 million investment. The pension fund's chief executive, David G. Bronner, became US Airways' chairman. Crash landing So, Federal taxpayers and retirees (the usual suspects, so to speak) take the hit. Give a thought for poor teetering Delta, drowning in debt while squaring off against two bankrupt competitors who simply stiffed their creditors. Dominos, anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted September 10, 2004 Report Share Posted September 10, 2004 That would put the yield curve flat to 10 year.? The carry Trade would be dead. Since the carry trade drives so much speculation, you could infer that Bubble II will be dead, too. And since a flat yield curve has preceded every recession, the economy would die as well. Kindly Doctor Leeson has been replaced by Doctor Kevorkian ... maybe it's a mercy killing after all ... M.H., That is why I asked you a year and a half ago whether you thought we would see a flat yield curve in the future. :wink2: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted September 10, 2004 Report Share Posted September 10, 2004 M.H., That is why I asked you a year and a half ago whether you thought we would see a flat yield curve in the future. :wink2: We will ... but at a 'measured pace.' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 10, 2004 Report Share Posted September 10, 2004 Your Golden Stool, including short and long term updated charts and price targets, is loaded. Even if you are not a goldbug, you should check out the Golden Stool. It's in your Anals daily. Take a subscribatory and download the Golden Stool RIGHT NOW! 30 Day Intro Subscribatory. Just $16.99! Get In RIGHT NOW!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted September 10, 2004 Report Share Posted September 10, 2004 Paging Doctor Hiding Bear -- Japan's 'soft patch' seems less 'transitory': Japan unexpectedly cut its estimate for second-quarter economic growth to a 1.3 percent annual pace, the slowest in more than a year, as some manufacturers reduced inventories on concern orders may fall. Stocks and the yen slid. The pace of growth announced by the Cabinet Office in Tokyo was lower than the initial estimate of 1.7 percent and less than half the median 3.4 percent rate forecast for the revised figure by 21 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Where's the growth? The pop in the doolar last evening suggests that punters regard U.S. growth as slightly "less worse" than Japan's. As Comstock Partners says, "Limbo, limbo; how low can you go?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest bullseatshitndie Posted September 10, 2004 Report Share Posted September 10, 2004 jack me off perusian from cme floor, no inflation. LOL morons! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calculus Posted September 10, 2004 Report Share Posted September 10, 2004 "Paul Volcker, the former Federal Reserve chairman, says there's a 75 percent chance of a financial crisis in the next five years." I wonder if he's being diplomatic with his % figure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted September 10, 2004 Author Report Share Posted September 10, 2004 Paging Doctor Hiding Bear -- Japan's 'soft patch' seems less 'transitory': Japan unexpectedly cut its estimate for second-quarter economic growth to a 1.3 percent annual pace, the slowest in more than a year, as some manufacturers reduced inventories on concern orders may fall. Stocks and the yen slid.? ? ? ? ? The pace of growth announced by the Cabinet Office in Tokyo was lower than the initial estimate of 1.7 percent and less than half the median 3.4 percent rate forecast for the revised figure by 21 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Where's the growth? The pop in the doolar last evening suggests that punters regard U.S. growth as slightly "less worse" than Japan's. As Comstock Partners says, "Limbo, limbo; how low can you go?" The move by Japan to allow both the BOJ and MOF to print up yen at hyperinflationary rates in the first quarter is - well - a failure. All they succeeded in doing was increasing worldwide inflation and accelerating the transfer of hard earned savings of Japanese retirees to the US, where it will be spent on a new SUV or leveraged RE - and never will return. Al's and Ben's experiment with hyperinflation is just beginning, and will just as unsuccessful in the end - but much more devastating to the world economy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longOnUranus Posted September 10, 2004 Report Share Posted September 10, 2004 Barring a last-minute change of heart by its recalcitrant unions, US Airways appears all but certain to seek bankruptcy protection on Sunday, people briefed on the situation said yesterday. The airline sought Chapter 11 protection in August 2002, a filing that also took place on a Sunday. It emerged in April 2003, backed by a $900 million package of federal loan guarantees, the largest awarded by the Air Transportation Stabilization Board. The airline's lead investor was the Retirement Systems of Alabama, which took a 36.5 percent stake in the airline and eight of 15 seats on its board in return for a $240 million investment. The pension fund's chief executive, David G. Bronner, became US Airways' chairman. Crash landing So, Federal taxpayers and retirees (the usual suspects, so to speak) take the hit. Give a thought for poor teetering Delta, drowning in debt while squaring off against two bankrupt competitors who simply stiffed their creditors. Dominos, anyone? That's a lot of cotton for Ole Joe to pick in his golden years... They couldn't run the SP down on bad news recently, let's see what they can do with some "good" news. The Matrix software is in total immersion mode now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orvack Posted September 10, 2004 Report Share Posted September 10, 2004 What just happened to the US Peso ? Sep.'04 US DOLLAR INDEX 88.38 -0.45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traderfromhell Posted September 10, 2004 Report Share Posted September 10, 2004 Long side looks good here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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