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B4 The Bell Humpday August 4


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#16 flockofsheeples

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Posted 04 August 2004 - 09:11 AM

Market Overview
Wed 9:03am ET
S&P futures vs fair value: +293.9.

:o :o :o

yooohoo better get that fixed...or maybe it's that darn millennium bug. :D
I don't know why they call it hamburger helper...it seems to do just fine on its own-Uncle Eddie, "Family Vacation"

#17 Tchaikofsky

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Posted 04 August 2004 - 09:11 AM

Some "think like a crook" questions:

Isn't Snowman ringing the opening bell at the NYSE today? Is a "boy, that Fed is all-knowing and benificent" rally possible?

20% of CIEN is owned by Fido & C. Will they really permit a 20% haircut?


On the other hand, maybe POR is finally here?

Curiouser and curiouser . . .

:huh:

#18 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 04 August 2004 - 09:12 AM

Notes from dinner with ME investors:

In attendance were eight seasoned individual investors from Egypt, Jordan and Kuwait. They were all entrepreneurs who had accumulated wealth in their individual countries in fields including; food processing, construction, furniture mfg and trucking. Average net worth is approx $3-4m which in their respective companies would make them quite wealthy, but none were idiot sons. They all seek to diversify investments for themselves and extended family and most importantly to preserve and grow capital.

Iraq war
In general they all thought the Iraq war, specifically the removal of Hussein, was a net positive. They are concerned about US long-term intentions in Iraq. They want the Iraqis to self govern and the US to exit from Iraqi affairs. However, their greatest concern would be the immediate withdrawal of the US military.

The reasoning: The things going on in Iraq were also going on in their own countries. People being rounded up and disappearing, govt confiscating wealth without cause or explanation, and routine torture and imprisonment for political opposition. Since Hussein has been toppled their respective govts have turned full circle, at least temporarily. Secondly, there is a great deal of trade and job mobility in the region especially for the educated classes. Most had experience with Saddam’s Iraq or have direct relatives with first hand experience.

Terrorism & Bin Laden
Here they provided a blistering critic of the US & Europe. Basically their point is that there have been a few high profile attacks in the west and everyone is in a panic and demanding action. They have been dealing with terrorists for 30yrs and it is a daily event. On a daily basis restaurants are attacked, commuter buses and trains destroyed and people are kidnapped and executed but none of this is reported in the mainstream news. They find this an outrage and want more help from the west. More importantly anything that rids them of terrorism or religious fanaticism of any kind is a positive.

As for Bin Laden there is no love for this man at any social or economic level. Primarily for economic reasons. After 911, the tourism trade collapsed. Tourism is one of the primary economic drivers for the whole region and it promptly destroyed the rest of the economy. Secondly, many in the lower economic classes would go to SA, Kuwait or one of the other large oil exporting countries to work and in turn support the rest of their families back home. Fears of terrorist attacks have caused these countries to deport these workers compounding the dire economic conditions. His vision of the Middle East is not appealing to his future subjects.

Finally the hatred of the US, Europe (to a lesser extent) and Israel is largely a govt sponsored attempt to divert attention away from conditions at home to the threat of a common enemy. By in large the people of the region just want some peace so they can prosper. This also cuts across social and economic levels as those on the bottom (still reasonably educated (British school system and free education)) have suffered the most. All currently do business with Israel, US & Europe and hope more trade will open up. I was surprised to learn of the large Christian and Jewish populations in these countries (10% in Egypt, 5-6% in the other countries). Outside of religious fanaticism they get along well. Religious leaders or the govt generally stages large protests against these minorities or the west in general. No one will openly renounce these events but few actually support their message.

US prestige & POTUS
In general they love the US image. When we initially met in the Waldorf lobby some of their families were present. In general the teenagers were indistinguishable from any US teenager. They wear the exact same clothes, talk the same, listen to the same music and watch the same movies. They seem far more sophisticated, were very current on news and foreign affairs and all spoke several languages. Their parents likewise would fit in any US suburb.

The US media is considered boring and useless. “Where are the details and facts?” Nevertheless they feel that it is better than the govt sponsored news shows in their countries,

As for POTUS he is generally perceived positively. No one was particularly negative, no one was particularly positive.

They think the US military is invincible and are awe struck.

Precious Metals/Currency/Investments
They hold the bulk of their wealth in gold and consider it the ultimate currency. Children are given small allowances of gold each year such that by the time they marry they have enough wealth to buy a home and furnishings. Stock speculation is reserved for a small portion of their wealth and it is considered very risky. There is no interest in US bonds as local interest rates are 12%+/ year. They consider the local stock markets to be complete scams run by the local elite. US dollar is still considered king. Local currencies are sinking so fast that absent a complete collapse in the US $ they are still ahead. Official exchange rates and actual rates are so far off that they are nonsensical. The Euro is still considered second rate but is gaining popularity.

Mortgage investing makes no sense to them, as a house is not something that is financed in their countries. Generally it passed from generation to generation. The concept of refinancing a mortgage also makes no sense, “why would I forgive a loan and accept a lower rate?” needless to say nobody had any interest in MBS. In general they have little knowledge of FNM, FRE, CFC, etc.

Rog thanks for sharing. Butt (always a big one of those hangin out) you are relaying the opinions of the top tier. It would be aking to sitting down and discussing the same topics with the top 10% of the US (or any top tier group) and I am pretty confident the reponses wouldn't be all that different. From the investment perspective it is interesting and reinforces my belief that the dollar is not yet "doomed", though someday it will fail as have all fiats through all of time.

However I don't think it tells us much about the man on the street other than from the perspective that most people everywhere would just like to get on with life and not be constantly tossed about by governments and the reactions to those governments.

I'm a little disturbed about the plaintive plea for help from the "west", which is a euphimism for the US. The best thing the US could do is quit going in and meddling in every little country out there. If we were to do that, I think a lot of localized unrest would either quiet down or otherwise resolve itself.

The most terrifying thing you can hear these days is "We're from the government and we're here to help you."

#19

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Posted 04 August 2004 - 09:13 AM

Never kick a fresh turd on a hot day. - Harry S. Truman

#20

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Posted 04 August 2004 - 09:17 AM

U.S. Oil Inventories data to be released at 10:30.

Will they tell the truth?

Why start now?

#21 lineup32

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Posted 04 August 2004 - 09:18 AM

Rog, wow, most interesting. Thank you.

Yobob, :lol: :lol: :lol:

thanks rog: :P

#22 HiHat

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Posted 04 August 2004 - 09:21 AM

rog...........thanks for the review. interesting.

seems like all people could or would do o.k. if
governments got more out of the way..............

#23 Ned38

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Posted 04 August 2004 - 09:21 AM

Thanks Rog, good stuff

#24 Dharmaeye

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Posted 04 August 2004 - 09:26 AM

Notes from dinner with ME investors:

In attendance were eight seasoned individual investors from Egypt, Jordan and Kuwait. They were all entrepreneurs who had accumulated wealth in their individual countries in fields including; food processing, construction, furniture mfg and trucking. Average net worth is approx $3-4m which in their respective companies would make them quite wealthy, but none were idiot sons. They all seek to diversify investments for themselves and extended family and most importantly to preserve and grow capital.

Iraq war
In general they all thought the Iraq war, specifically the removal of Hussein, was a net positive. They are concerned about US long-term intentions in Iraq. They want the Iraqis to self govern and the US to exit from Iraqi affairs. However, their greatest concern would be the immediate withdrawal of the US military.

The reasoning: The things going on in Iraq were also going on in their own countries. People being rounded up and disappearing, govt confiscating wealth without cause or explanation, and routine torture and imprisonment for political opposition. Since Hussein has been toppled their respective govts have turned full circle, at least temporarily. Secondly, there is a great deal of trade and job mobility in the region especially for the educated classes. Most had experience with Saddam’s Iraq or have direct relatives with first hand experience.

Terrorism & Bin Laden
Here they provided a blistering critic of the US & Europe. Basically their point is that there have been a few high profile attacks in the west and everyone is in a panic and demanding action. They have been dealing with terrorists for 30yrs and it is a daily event. On a daily basis restaurants are attacked, commuter buses and trains destroyed and people are kidnapped and executed but none of this is reported in the mainstream news. They find this an outrage and want more help from the west. More importantly anything that rids them of terrorism or religious fanaticism of any kind is a positive.

As for Bin Laden there is no love for this man at any social or economic level. Primarily for economic reasons. After 911, the tourism trade collapsed. Tourism is one of the primary economic drivers for the whole region and it promptly destroyed the rest of the economy. Secondly, many in the lower economic classes would go to SA, Kuwait or one of the other large oil exporting countries to work and in turn support the rest of their families back home. Fears of terrorist attacks have caused these countries to deport these workers compounding the dire economic conditions. His vision of the Middle East is not appealing to his future subjects.

Finally the hatred of the US, Europe (to a lesser extent) and Israel is largely a govt sponsored attempt to divert attention away from conditions at home to the threat of a common enemy. By in large the people of the region just want some peace so they can prosper. This also cuts across social and economic levels as those on the bottom (still reasonably educated (British school system and free education)) have suffered the most. All currently do business with Israel, US & Europe and hope more trade will open up. I was surprised to learn of the large Christian and Jewish populations in these countries (10% in Egypt, 5-6% in the other countries). Outside of religious fanaticism they get along well. Religious leaders or the govt generally stages large protests against these minorities or the west in general. No one will openly renounce these events but few actually support their message.

US prestige & POTUS
In general they love the US image. When we initially met in the Waldorf lobby some of their families were present. In general the teenagers were indistinguishable from any US teenager. They wear the exact same clothes, talk the same, listen to the same music and watch the same movies. They seem far more sophisticated, were very current on news and foreign affairs and all spoke several languages. Their parents likewise would fit in any US suburb.

The US media is considered boring and useless. “Where are the details and facts?” Nevertheless they feel that it is better than the govt sponsored news shows in their countries,

As for POTUS he is generally perceived positively. No one was particularly negative, no one was particularly positive.

They think the US military is invincible and are awe struck.

Precious Metals/Currency/Investments
They hold the bulk of their wealth in gold and consider it the ultimate currency. Children are given small allowances of gold each year such that by the time they marry they have enough wealth to buy a home and furnishings. Stock speculation is reserved for a small portion of their wealth and it is considered very risky. There is no interest in US bonds as local interest rates are 12%+/ year. They consider the local stock markets to be complete scams run by the local elite. US dollar is still considered king. Local currencies are sinking so fast that absent a complete collapse in the US $ they are still ahead. Official exchange rates and actual rates are so far off that they are nonsensical. The Euro is still considered second rate but is gaining popularity.

Mortgage investing makes no sense to them, as a house is not something that is financed in their countries. Generally it passed from generation to generation. The concept of refinancing a mortgage also makes no sense, “why would I forgive a loan and accept a lower rate?” needless to say nobody had any interest in MBS. In general they have little knowledge of FNM, FRE, CFC, etc.

Tanks for the valuable insights/ info.

#25 machinehead

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Posted 04 August 2004 - 09:27 AM

'They' managed to hold the Nikkei close over 11,000 by ten points, after it traded under the round number for most of the session.

I don't think the 'Rice Paper Curtain' is going to hold back the tide of selling here in the United Snakes, though. Too much bad sheet goin' down.

This morning the news ticker showed "new intel also used in terror warning."

This is rich, really rich. First blast the sheeple with a crackdown. Then tell 'em it was old intel. No wait, it was new intel too!

Whap! Whap! Whap! Don't think, just obey. Follow instructions, little flock! :mellow:
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#26 rog

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Posted 04 August 2004 - 09:30 AM

Yobo,

Thats good point, however, I don't agree entirely. These were all self made business people who are not in the ruling elite. In fact they are shut out of the political process. I liken them to most stoolies who seem to have an independent nature and are largely succesful in running a business.

#27 brian4

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Posted 04 August 2004 - 09:32 AM

Good Morning Crew- The Market is about to cliff-dive-window at the Bell and the Chairthrower is in Da House-Look out below-Helmets on, Lock n Load-Yo Bob :lol:

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Posted 04 August 2004 - 09:34 AM

Regarding the opinions and views of the ME guys. It all depends on where you are. Obviously, there are thousands of our southern friends willing to risk life and limb to cross the border and land one of those super chicken processing jobs.

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Posted 04 August 2004 - 09:35 AM

CFC -2.15

Heard they were downgraded by Morgan Stanley

#30 machinehead

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Posted 04 August 2004 - 09:35 AM

Good Morning Crew- The Market is about to cliff-dive-window at the Bell and the Chairthrower is in Da House-Look out below-Helmets on, Lock n Load-Yo Bob :lol:

WHOA -- nice opening drop!

Looks pretty decisive!
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss





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