Hiding Bear Posted July 2, 2004 Report Share Posted July 2, 2004 Welcome to B4 The Bell! It's a cool summer in LA housing market: Home Market Shows Hints of Cooling Off To be sure, Southern California's exuberant house party is still going strong. The median price of a house in the six-county region has risen more than 20% year over year for 11 consecutive months as the supply of homes for sale has fallen near an all-time low. But Wednesday's action by the Federal Reserve, which raised the benchmark federal funds rate by one-quarter of a percentage point, threatens to throw a bit of cold water on the region's housing prices, where signs of a cooling-off period have already emerged. The steady uptick in rates ahead of the Fed's move Wednesday hasn't been lost on thousands of Southland homeowners, who are rushing to put up "for sale" signs in hopes of selling their homes for as much as possible. That means buyers have more properties to choose from. Spring and summer are usually the busiest seasons for residential real estate. But this year some prospective homeowners say they are thinking twice about taking on a more costly loan for a house that may be priced too high. http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-home...a-home-business FOMC members turn cool towards AG's claim that inflation is not a worry: Nearly two months before the Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates on Wednesday, some board members made it clear that they were more worried about inflation than Alan Greenspan was. According to minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee on May 4, several members were dubious about an assertion by Mr. Greenspan, the Fed chairman, that the labor market and factory capacity still had enough slack to allow for rapid growth without rising prices. The minutes were made public on Thursday. Though the Fed minutes provide a highly sanitized summary of discussion among the 19 committee members, the minutes from May suggest at least some unease with Mr. Greenspan's sanguine view that most signs of inflation stemmed from transitory events rather than a pickup in underlying price trends. http://www.nytimes.com/2004/07/02/business/02fomc.html Good Trading! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest yobob1 Posted July 2, 2004 Report Share Posted July 2, 2004 Once again, the financial community breathlessly awaits the prescripted jobs report. Of course almost every day we are all breathlessly waiting for one piece of data or report that will move the markets. What these markets really need for a good movement is a dose of Ex-Lax fed to 990N. But the jig is up or there are an awful lot of bad guessers out there. The 10 year yield over the last few days has been pushed down a little - probably just about enough so that when the jobs numbers hit and the bond pits go into their 48 seconds of hysteria upon the release, the 10 year bond yield will end up about where it was several days ago. The PM markets have already been given a heads up also. Platinum is leading them down. You might also note that palladium, a proxy on auto sales, is getting slapped hard this morning (down 7% and now under $200 as of this writing ) after the wonderful auto sales figures release. I'm betting that this past quarter's auto sales numbers were inflated by about 10% with "fleet" sales. The truth is most of those "fleet" sales end up at the auto auctions via rental fleet laundering a month or two later. Then the delaers buy them 10 or 15% below what they would have paid if purchased directly from the manufacturer. The actual price of cars is falling faster than the supplied numbers would lead you to believe. Since were getting closer to the elections and the conventions are upon us, I would guess that 350,000 new jobs were "created". And boy howdy, do I mean created. 349,927 of those jobs will be the presumption of new "businesses". Of course the fact that those businesses consist of someone sitting at home stuffing envelopes or assembling crafts on a piece basis because they can't find a real job with a real income, means nothing. Of course, they don't even have to be doing that. Digital job creation is easier thatn digital money creation since there's no practical way to confirm that any of them exist or don't exist. In reality it is the furriners that have us by the nads. They currently own 47% of the US notes. Their relentless buying of all US securites has resulted in a Q1 2004 net investment of, gulp, 447 billion in one quarter alone. Go ahead annualize that; I dare you (1.788 trillion). This one quarter is more than for the entire year in 1999. Its almost 60% of last year's purchases. They just love our paper, but oddly are backing away from direct investment or real assets if you will. They seem to prefer things that, at least of the surface, appear to have liquidity. Of course liquidity is an illusion, just as a single man door cannot accomodate a crowd of 1000 when someone yells fire. And perhaps that's the real problem we face. Over the last 20 years financial assets have exploded. Paper flying every which way. Don't like anything we offer? No problem, we'll make up something new for you to buy. Every single piece of it wrapped up in the illusion of liquidity and protected by some sort of "insurance" granted by the wonderful world of the $250 trillion derivatives markets. Whatever you do, don't peek behind the curtain. You can't handle the truth, nor can anyone else, which is why nobody wants the derivatives markets regulated. Today's script. Bonds - down. Stocks - up. PMs - slapdown Fryday. Peg Leg Bucky - continuing to cut doughnuts in the parking lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 2, 2004 Report Share Posted July 2, 2004 Your Golden Stool, including short and long term updated charts and price targets, is loaded. Even if you are not a goldbug, you should check out the Golden Stool. It's in your Anals daily. Take a subscribatory and download the Golden Stool RIGHT NOW! 30 Day Intro Subscribatory. Just $16.99! Get In RIGHT NOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trinharder Posted July 2, 2004 Report Share Posted July 2, 2004 Betcha there's some happy campers in this bunch. In at the top again? Equity funds report net cash inflows totaling $3.753 billion in the week ended June 30, with $2.25 billion going to the iShares Russell 2000 Index fund. http://www.amgdata.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butterfield 8 Posted July 2, 2004 Report Share Posted July 2, 2004 I'm looking at bids 4$ over ask. what's going on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tchaikofsky Posted July 2, 2004 Report Share Posted July 2, 2004 Pre-market flight to quality: MAMA up over a buck off the $9.18 AH lows last night. RIMM up half a buck to new highs. TASR up a buck and a half. Lookit those investors snapping up those compelling values! I am standing here beside myself in awe at their sagacity! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 2, 2004 Report Share Posted July 2, 2004 Drano, Are you still holding CECO? I Hope so as it is down -4.50 in premarket. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted July 2, 2004 Author Report Share Posted July 2, 2004 Since were getting closer to the elections and the conventions are upon us, I would guess that 350,000 new jobs were "created". And boy howdy, do I mean created. 349,927 of those jobs will be the presumption of new "businesses". Of course the fact that those businesses consist of someone sitting at home stuffing envelopes or assembling crafts on a piece basis because they can't find a real job with a real income, means nothing. Of course, they don't even have to be doing that. Digital job creation is easier thatn digital money creation since there's no practical way to confirm that any of them exist or don't exist. In reality it is the furriners that have us by the nads. They currently own 47% of the US notes. Their relentless buying of all US securites has resulted in a Q1 2004 net investment of, gulp, 447 billion in one quarter alone. Go ahead annualize that; I dare you (1.788 trillion). This one quarter is more than for the entire year in 1999. Its almost 60% of last year's purchases. They just love our paper, but oddly are backing away from direct investment or real assets if you will. They seem to prefer things that, at least of the surface, appear to have liquidity. Of course liquidity is an illusion, just as a single man door cannot accomodate a crowd of 1000 when someone yells fire. Curious how Treasury Secretary Snow is now in charge of employment reports and Secretary Chou is delegated to showing Boy Scouts around Washington. Well at least they are making it clear that honest numbers will no longer be tolerated. As far as the inflows from foreigners in the first quarter, it's a record that may not ever be exceeded. It also explains how the US was able to acheive low interest rates in the first quarter, which financed a mini-housing boom starting in March for a one month or so. The NJ local news reported today that high end housing has fallen in price up to 10% since then, which I have already said about 10 times in these forums. So some truth is getting out, but not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 2, 2004 Report Share Posted July 2, 2004 wow look at the bond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 2, 2004 Report Share Posted July 2, 2004 Nonfarm payrolls rose by 112,000 in June, less than half the 244,000 expected by Wall Street economists surveyed by CBS MarketWatch. Employment fell by 11,000 in the manufacturing sector after four months of growth. http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?...1}&siteid=aolpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest yobob1 Posted July 2, 2004 Report Share Posted July 2, 2004 Hayseus. Didn't the BLS get the memo? Someone sure effed up. Bet the bat phone rings on that one. Sorry today's script has now been sent back for a rewrite. Is it too early for an emergencey FOMC meeting to reverse Wednesday's increase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twignberries Posted July 2, 2004 Report Share Posted July 2, 2004 Uh oh. No jobs, stagnant economy, rising inflation, huge deficits. Call Jimmy Carter - he'll know what to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 2, 2004 Report Share Posted July 2, 2004 Hayseus. Didn't the BLS get the memo? Someone sure effed up. Bet the bat phone rings on that one. Sorry today's script has now been sent back for a rewrite. Is it too early for an emergencey FOMC meeting to reverse Wednesday's increase? Don't worry, the greenman knew exactly what today's numbers were going to be. He may have even ordered it to bring the long yield down. The economy is running on credit creation period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 2, 2004 Report Share Posted July 2, 2004 ?A lot of fellows nowadays have a B.A., M.D., or Ph.D. Unfortunately, they don't have a J.O.B.? (Fats Domino) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zensmoke Posted July 2, 2004 Report Share Posted July 2, 2004 U.S. Job Growth Slows Sharply in June Friday July 2, 8:32 am ET WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The pace of U.S. hiring slumped sharply in June after several months of robust gains, the government reported on Friday as employers added fewer than half the number of payroll jobs forecast and hours of work shrunk. The Labor Department said only 112,000 jobs were created last month, far fewer than the 250,000 that Wall Street anal cysts had anticipated. April and May new-job totals were revised down, to 324,000 and 235,000 respectively, from 346,000 and 248.000. The unemployment rate was unchanged, as expected, at 5.6 percent. http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/040702/economy_employment_1.html Edit: sorry Sleddy--I didn't see your post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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