Hiding Bear Posted June 14, 2004 Report Share Posted June 14, 2004 Welcome to another week of trading, humor, insights, and what-not at B4 the Bell! B4 has as its central theme short-term trading, lead by the astute technician Brain4. But it is also about what ever members think affects that in a cordial atmosphere of a 24/7 international family lounge. The Long Goodbye Continues: Japanese Bonds Slide for a Record 13th Day on Faster Growth June 14 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese 10-year bonds fell for a record 13th day on speculation faster economic growth may lead the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates as early as next year. Euroyen futures indicate the central bank may raise its target for overnight bank lending, which has been held at near zero since 2001, as early as March next year. Merrill Lynch & Co. said in a report financial institutions may decrease holdings of bonds and buy stocks because their funds are too exposed to higher interest rates. The benchmark 1.6 percent security due in June 2014 fell 0.540 to 97.932 as of the 3:05 p.m. in Tokyo, according to Japan Bond Trading Co., the nation's largest debt broker. Its yield rose 6.5 basis points to 1.845 percent. It earlier rose to 1.855 percent, the most for a benchmark 10-year bond since Oct. 30, 2000. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=1...efer=news_index Rules of Engagement: During trading hours, 9:30 AM to 4:00 PM eastern US time, please try to keep off-topic stories to a short size - or just provide a link to your discussion on LOB, Political Stool, whatever... Also please avoid negative comments about fellow posters. Make up your own mind about the credibility of various media sources linked here and do your own due diligence on individual stocks and trading techniques. Tanks! Good trading all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest yobob1 Posted June 14, 2004 Report Share Posted June 14, 2004 For six consecutive years, ChevronTexaco has had good news for anyone worried that the world is running out of oil: the company has found more oil and natural gas than it has produced. Over that time, ChevronTexaco's proven oil and gas reserves have risen 14 percent, more than one billion barrels. But near the bottom of ChevronTexaco's financial filings is a much less promising statistic. For each of those years, ChevronTexaco's wells have produced less oil and gas than the year before. Even as reserves have risen, the company's annual output has fallen by almost 15 percent, and the declines have continued recently despite a company promise to increase production in 2002. ChevronTexaco is not the only big oil company whose production is falling despite rising reserves, though it has the largest gap. As consumers, economists and governments around the world wonder if oil supplies can keep pace with rising demand, production trends at the industry's publicly traded companies are not promising. Collectively, they paint a picture of an industry that has depleted nearly all of the world's easily exploited reserves outside the Middle East and that is now struggling to sustain production, much less increase it. Fears about supply shortfalls and rising demand have already caused prices to climb about 20 percent this year, hovering around $40 a barrel. The four biggest companies own only about 4 percent of the world's reserves, which are mostly government-held, but they offer a unique glimpse of supply trends because they must disclose their reserves and production each year. Historically, proven reserves and output have moved in tandem. Industry experts disagree why the relationship has broken down. Although the reserves are only estimates, federal rules require companies to calculate them conservatively........ .......But these estimates are far from exact. For most countries, the details of reserves and output are closely guarded secrets. During the 1980's, the members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries sharply raised their reserve estimates, because OPEC's output quotas were based in part on national reserves. "Countries want a higher allocation, so they tweak their numbers," Mr. Gheit said. "Everybody lies about the reserve, so you want to make sure that you lie even more than the guy next to you." .............. ........"The data is starting to say that underlying all this, the supply-demand balance is tighter than we thought," Mr. Pfeifer said. "The maturing geological base is starting to rear its ugly head." The "Shell" Game Deflation is dead. Long live Inflation. (RE Roger Arnold) I just love it when the consensus, even amongst the bears, comes together. No one wants to be caught espousing the incorrect theme ... far better to be wrong together than wrong alone. Almost everyone is ignoring the now 2,000,000 pound pink elephant of debt sitting in the corner. They think the fed can overcome all. Wrong. The fed cannot alter the long term trend, but only modify short term direction with mostly jawboning. Fleck thinks the fed cannot move aggresively or even very far. I happen to agree. He also thinks the dollar will race downwards, while Richard Russel thinks the dollar will retain some utility for a while. I agree with Russell on that point. Even with a falling dollar, those of us within the US who live, work, and bank here will find the dollar useful if you aren't loaded with debt. The Euro on the other hand is pretty much a political joke. A currency which existed in digital only form for three years prior to any circulating currency backed by what? Not even a country behind it, let alone any exchangeable hard assets. The Euro is the most "fiatiest" of the fiats, backed by the full confidence that Europe can play nice together, when history has shown that Europe has never played nice together for very long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 14, 2004 Report Share Posted June 14, 2004 Nobel Prize winning economist speaks out: International norms exist for a reason By disregarding international opinion on invading Iraq and then bungling the occupation, George W. Bush has reminded us why rules to limit the scope of human misbehavior were put in place By Joseph Stiglitz Monday, Jun 14, 2004 I usually limit myself in my newspaper commentaries to my area of expertise, economics. But as an American, I am so horrified by what has happened in my country -- and what my country has done to others over the past two years -- that I feel I must speak out. I believe American abuses of human rights and of the canons of civilized peoples that have come to light in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Guantanamo Bay, and the more horrendous abuses that almost surely will come to light later, are not merely the act of aberrant individuals. They are the result of an administration that has trampled on human rights and international law, including the Geneva conventions, and tried to undermine basic democratic protections, ever since it took office. Joseph Stiglitz is professor of economics at Columbia University and a member of the Commission on the Social Dimensions of Globalization. He was awarded the Nobel Prize in economics in 2001. http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/edit/archi...6/14/2003175039 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 14, 2004 Report Share Posted June 14, 2004 Footsie consolidating at the lows intraday, looking good for US bearz... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 14, 2004 Report Share Posted June 14, 2004 Today's big news is that the price of gas at the pump appears to be coming down. This happens to coincide with a (temporarily) strengthening dollar, AND a two week campaign push by Bush and Cheney to "get the word out" that we are winning the war in Iraq and the economy is booming. Good thing for Bush he's not a corporate president Right now, the U.S. is in huge debt to many of the Arab countries we purchase oil from. When the dollar goes down the price of oil goes up. Prior to the Iraq invasion, the original benchmark for oil set by OPEC was between $30 to $35 per barrel. Today the price of oil is well above that because the same Arab countries that breed terrorists are now holding the U.S. hostage financially. The French and Russians had every right to be adamant in their refusal to back the United States until a coalition could be formed. Both countries had large contracts for the rebuilding of the Iraqis' oil fields while U.S. corporations such as Halliburton and Bechtel (very large contributors to the Bush administration) were excluded. Dick Cheney, next in line for the presidency, still refuses to reveal the minutes from his secret meetings with top energy officials. Since those meetings, oil and gasoline prices have skyrocketed. Coincidence? Maybe. http://www.pressconnects.com/today/opinion...404s96844.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 14, 2004 Report Share Posted June 14, 2004 4.85 on the 10 year. 2.12! on the one year. Out of control Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longOnUranus Posted June 14, 2004 Report Share Posted June 14, 2004 4.85 on the 10 year. 2.12! on the one year. Out of control AG will get the Stock Market Vigilantes going here soon....the traditional counterforce to the rogue bond traders will save the day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest libertas Posted June 14, 2004 Report Share Posted June 14, 2004 Hussman on whence comes inflation. Excellent piece, as usual. The Fed Bone's Connected to the Tax and Spend Bones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 14, 2004 Report Share Posted June 14, 2004 The blurring of the lines...who is a terrorist? In the continuing effort to muddy the conversation, the administration is in the process of labeling everybody in Iraq who opposes the U.S. presence there as a terrorist. The word had been "Insurgent"...but increasingly, the word terrorist is now being used to describe every enemy. It would seem by his comments this weekend, Colin Powell is effectively calling for civil war in Iraq. There are no easy answers to the present problem, but the fact that we even have this problem rests with those who insisted we insert ourselves in it. We went into Iraq despite the fact there were no terrorists to be found there, but since the public was sold on this war as an extension of the war on terror, we needed to create some terrorists there to fight...and so we have... http://washingtontimes.com/national/200406...25030-3606r.htm THE WASHINGTON TIMES ????Secretary of State Colin L. Powell said yesterday that Iraqis must be willing to kill their own insurgents for order to be restored in the post-Saddam era. ????On NBC's "Meet The Press," Mr. Powell called the security situation "long and hot and bloody right now," and answered "yes," when asked by host Tim Russert whether Iraqis must "be willing to kill fellow Iraqis if need be to put down the insurgency." ????Miss Rice, meanwhile, lamented the killing of Iraqi officials. "These are very sad events when Iraqi patriots are gunned down by these traitors and by these terrorists," she said on CNN's "Late Edition." ????"They know that they have no future," she said. "We have good partners now in this Iraqi government, who will be tough, we believe, on terrorism, tough on the insurgents who are trying to stop progress, and sooner or later this will be under control." ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 14, 2004 Report Share Posted June 14, 2004 4.85 on the 10 year. 2.12! on the one year. Out of control Hang Seng down 319 Today looks to be crucial for the bonds...we'll see what they've got left to defend it with. Might be time to pull out a SURPRISING REVISION IN THE NUMBER OF U.S. JOBS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 14, 2004 Report Share Posted June 14, 2004 4 Fed Presidents and 1 Fed Governor are speaking this week Open Mouth operations in FULL COURT PRESS mode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The brown one Posted June 14, 2004 Report Share Posted June 14, 2004 From U-Rope: Euromarkets also down 1-1.5%.But there is absolutely no volume.No fear here.Looks like everyone is waiting for the US markets to "make it right" when they open. The more usual everyday FED performance.This week we're honoured by 4 weddings and a funeral! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 14, 2004 Report Share Posted June 14, 2004 Open Mouth Operations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 14, 2004 Report Share Posted June 14, 2004 Trouble with fearless forecasting is that you gotta get it all right..looks like we topped on Thursday and not this A.M at 9:30 like I thought.... anyway here goes bears..... With the futures & HangSeng[it tends to lead da futures n not vis-versa] situation...it looks similar to May 17th and I do not think we gap down n GO lower all day..looks like we ST topped on June 10th and from their I think we go sideways into Friday Opex..with a low today.. a higher low on Tuesday...a rally on wednesday and a huge retrace down on Thursday...with a 100% retrace up of Thursdays decline on Friday I suspect the real rally starts next week after Opex right into July 9th-12th we will c as I expect a major low around July 14th I think the 11wk cycle low comes in right on time today at today's lowest low[counting from March 24th this your 55th fib day] & that we see a high[gap up] on the June 17th Bradley date with a low[gap down] on June 18th....{this is the Bradley June 22nd low + 1day} After the above.. we climb the wall of worry of the following into June9-12th of the following : June 30th - CPA handover in Iraq / Fed meeting July 5th - Independence Holiday *********** RISK IS TO BE LONG ...up to June 22nd !!!!! imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 14, 2004 Report Share Posted June 14, 2004 5 employees of a GE wholly owned subsidiary were among those killed in today's bombing in Iraq Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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