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B4 The Bell, Pre-Weekend April 30


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#1 Hiding Bear

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Posted 30 April 2004 - 07:14 AM

:D Welcome to the pre-weak-end session of B4 the Bell! :D

The BOJ and MOF say "Sayonara":

No Japan MOF FX Intervention In April


DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
April 30, 2004 6:07 a.m.

TOKYO -- The Japanese government did not conduct any yen-selling intervention in the foreign exchange market in April, the Ministry of Finance said Friday, providing evidence the government has ended its strategy of massive, all-out intervention aimed at underpinning the economy.

The lack of intervention comes in stark comparison to the record Y7.155 trillion sold in January, when the MOF was struggling to support the sagging dollar.

The MOF also sold Y3.342 trillion in February and Y4.703 trillion in March.

Government officials likely ceased their yen sales after judging that improvements in exports and production have also filtered through to other parts of the economy, making it better equipped at handling pressure from a more expensive currency. A strong yen makes Japanese products less competitive overseas, which hurts exports, and also reduces the yen-denominated value of exporters' overseas earnings.

Despite the lack of intervention in April, the dollar has managed to rebound from a four-year low of Y103.40 marked March 31, as the strengthening U.S. economy boosts market hopes for an early hike in U.S. interest rates. The dollar, which hit a one-month high of Y111.04 on Thursday, was trading around Y110.20 at 1006 GMT.

The April data cover transactions settled during the month, or intervention carried out between March 30 and April 27. Currency trades are settled after two business days.

DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
April 30, 2004 6:07 a.m.

In case you didn't get the message above it is "SELL TREASURIES".


The Silvershank Redemption

Looks like yobob1 made the best call where silver will bottom. ;)


False Alarm

Fed May Have Acted on False Alarm

By GREG IP
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
April 30, 2004; Page A2

WASHINGTON -- The Fed may have been responding to a false alarm last year when it cut interest rates to four-decade lows and held them there over fears of deflation, a Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta study suggests.

The study concludes that much of the drop in inflation between 2001 and 2003 was due to unusual behavior of residential rents and used-car prices indirectly caused by low interest rates. "These results suggest that the concern and discussion regarding overall price deflation were perhaps overstated," the Atlanta Fed economists conclude.

If the study is correct, underlying inflation may not be as low as it appears. Further, it suggests that once the Fed begins to raise rates, the unusual behavior of used-car prices and rents may stabilize or reverse, pushing up measured inflation rates, said Jonathan Basile, an economist at Credit Suisse First Boston who has examined the issue.


http://online.wsj.co...ays_us_page_one

#2

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Posted 30 April 2004 - 07:29 AM

G'day bears,

The past 2 days have been bad bad bad but after a Prozac or 2 or 3 . I'm back in a fighting spirit. Yes I have not closed my x3 DONGS yet!

Made some posts late last night re my views, Prechters latest,etc,etc[reposted below for anyone silly enought to listen to me]

================

is that me Brian,....no real suffering yet... Down 195 points so far and thats after my 290points profit after 3/24. As you suffered last week so do I this week.

But I got a plan my friend, I FULLY expect a bounce today[their I go jinking it] and I will sell x2[2/3 rd's] of longs into.

we will c[ pleaseplease please ...give me the bounce ]


=======================

Prechter....

Another emergency Interim report issued last night...'apology for call to go long in previous emergency report'....and says thet wave 3 down started in Feb. Expect more of the same..."Gold n Stock declining together as deflation comes into play"

==========================

Well folks my three[3] bullish scenerios were WRONG WRONG WRONG.

But here I go again. Today we bounce !!...dont laugh..I can hear the mumblings.."he's still medium term bullish"...NO I AM NOT...just VST-ST Bullish.

I ALWAYS said sell in May and go away and my plan was to sell on Thursday May 6th till August...but the market decided to start without me ...ahh well the beautiful thing about the Bear is that he always gives the BULLIOTS the the SLOPE OF HOPE - and we should have 4-5 one day rallies to sell into during May.

May will be a disaster for the BULLS and I am now on the Dark side...well it aint dark for me...please forgive me for straying from the flock.

Yours Truly,

BDK

#3 DrStool

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Posted 30 April 2004 - 07:56 AM

Somebody should do a study of what your returns would be if you simply bought the Spoos at the New Yawk close and sold them at 4:00 AM every day.

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#4

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Posted 30 April 2004 - 08:02 AM

Somebody should do a study of what your returns would be if you simply bought the Spoos at the New Yawk close and sold them at 4:00 AM every day.

Know what you mean Doc. Seems to me to work [just a guess] 70-80% of the time.

I think it would work with a 3-4point stop

#5 depends

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Posted 30 April 2004 - 08:04 AM

Brilliant! Why didn't somebody think of this before!
(oh - maybe they did...)
How can it be done?

#6 DrStool

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Posted 30 April 2004 - 08:05 AM

Prechter....

Another emergency Interim report issued last night...'apology for call to go long in previous emergency report'....


Preposterous. Appalling.

Anyone doing cycle analysis could not possibly have turned bullish there, and could not possibly be bullish now. The longer term signals have remained bearish throughout this top building process. The key 6-7 week cycle indicators turned bearish two weeks ago and stayed on sell signals the entire time the spx was churning around 1140. It simply would not be possible to be wildly bullish under those conditions. Cautious, sure, as resistance was tested, but until indicators go to the buy side and resistance is broken, the picture stays bearish. The indicators simply would not have permitted a bullish call. This is why I don't like Elliott, or any system based strictly on patterns. They are are totally haphazard, with a correlation coefficient so low as to be of no use.

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#7 twignberries

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Posted 30 April 2004 - 08:07 AM

I'm expecting a range bound trading day today. I see two conflicting psychological factors at play. Many shorts will probably be covering after a profitable week, while bulls will be using any bounce to escape losing positions before the weekend. End result - false breakouts and range bound trading. Of course, I reserve the right to change my mind should it sell off early. :)

twig.
When the last living thing has died on account of us, how poetical it would be if Earth could say, in a voice floating up perhaps from the floor of the Grand Canyon, “It is done.” People did not like it here.

- Kurt Vonnegut

#8 DrStool

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Posted 30 April 2004 - 08:13 AM

Major Bottom

Or Just A Trade?

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#9 thesun

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Posted 30 April 2004 - 08:16 AM

If the study is correct, underlying inflation may not be as low as it appears. Further, it suggests that once the Fed begins to raise rates, the unusual behavior of used-car prices and rents may stabilize or reverse, pushing up measured inflation rates, said Jonathan Basile, an economist at Credit Suisse First Boston who has examined the issue.[/i]

" unusual behavior "

Let me see if I can get this.
As the people of the USA go bankRAPE.
They lose the house and must rent, dah :rolleyes:
They lose that 30,000 SUV and have to get a real car, dah :rolleyes:

Maybe I should get a job at the FED and show this to them :rolleyes:

The F#$%$#% $$#%#$^$# $#%$#$#
" unusual behavior " my ass
They know what they did and are doing.

#10

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Posted 30 April 2004 - 08:25 AM

thesun,

Good Morning, and who p*ssed in your cornflakes? :)

#11

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Posted 30 April 2004 - 08:33 AM

Lie DuJour:

"US Troops pulling back from Fallujah to allow Iraqi military leaders to control the peace keeping operations in that city"

Huh?

Let me get this straight...

Saddam's former military guys ARE the "insurgents" that we had planned to go in and kill...some strategist FINALLY convinced the US leadership that their strategy of killing everybody in Fallujah would result in winning the battle and losing the war...and the ONLY way out is to essentially admit a failure of strategy and try to back away gracefully by turing control of the city over to the people who already control it.

This is a sign of stupidity for the original plan, and a sign of weakness in the eyes of the enemy for pulling back.

A lose/lose endeavor.

And as for those who died there on both sides in the last two weeks....why?

#12 thesun

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Posted 30 April 2004 - 08:35 AM

thesun,

Good Morning, and who p*ssed in your cornflakes? :)

Morning sled

Just " unusual behavior " :D

#13 DrStool

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Posted 30 April 2004 - 08:37 AM

I just made some nice comments about Brian and you all, over on IDS. I just wanted to say Many Tanks for carrying on the Capitalstool.com tradition in such great fashion!

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#14 Stinky

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Posted 30 April 2004 - 08:38 AM

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. consumer spending posted a smaller-than-expected rise in March and more of each shopping dollar paid for price hikes instead of products, a government report showed on Friday.

http://reuters.com/n...23&section=news

#15

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Posted 30 April 2004 - 08:41 AM

As you'll recall, just two days ago, the purported plan was to send in Iraqi police to patrol the streets of Fallujah...and I suggested that monkeys would be flying out of my ass before that would ever happen.

If anybody has any confidence whatsoever in the strategies that are being employed by the US from a military perspective, it appears to be unwarranted.





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