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World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Desolate depredations


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A swoop down initially but it looks like the early openers are trying for a bounce: Kiwis and Aussies -0.8%, Nikkers -2.4% and Sth Korea +0.3%.

In Aussie sectors, Gold reversing, -2.1% followed by Consumer Discretionary -1.5% and IT -1.3%.
 

 

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Most bourses came off their lows today with All Ords no exception.  The index closed -0.5% with Telecomms +0.7% and REITS +0.3% and at the red end, Gold -2.5%, Miners -1.7% and Materials -1.5%.

Over in Asia, China +0.2%, Honkers +0.3%, Nikkers -3.2% and India +0.9%.

 

 

On to UK/Europe:

 

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Japan life insurers may keep money at home as bond yields rise  

 

May 24 (Reuters) - Japanese life insurers are giving signs that they may not send much more of their $3 trillion in assets abroad this year, as Japanese government bond yields start picking up, despite hinting last month that they might boost their foreign bond holdings to seek higher returns.

Investors have been spurred to revise their market outlook by a sharp rise in Japanese bond yields over the past two weeks to one-year highs, taking the market by surprise. Just last month the benchmark yield fell to a record low after the Bank of Japan announced a massive monetary expansion plan.

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/24/japan-lifeinsurers-idUSL3N0DY1HN20130524

 

 

Haruhiko Kuroda, the Bank of Japan governor, said analysis by the central bank last month showed that the country could withstand an increase in market interest rates of as much as 3pc, as long as there were accompanying improvements in the economy.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10081821/Japan-plays-down-concerns-bond-price-spike-could-hurt-recovery.html

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Happy Memorial Day and best wishes to the vets and their families on the stool!

 

Doc, I have a question. Is the following statement true?

 

"If interest rates go up at a sufficient rate over a sufficiently short period of time than the U.S. Federal Reserve will have a negative net worth – it will technically be *insolvent* save some intervening remedy. The Fed “prints”” base” money only. When the Fed prints base money it creates a liability on its balance sheet. The liability can only be created if it buys assets (of equal value) with the base money from a primary dealer (a bank) with the newly created money. The value of the assets purchased and the dollar liability created must be equal at the time of exchange. So there is no way for the Fed to print its way out of insolvency. Generally in situations such as this the IMF would step in and bail-out the central bank. In this case the IMF is too small to bail out the Fed. The results will therefore be interesting to observe."

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I don't think so. The Fed's net worth or negative net worth is irrelevant. It does not mark to market and it would not be forced to liquidate assets by creditors unless there's an actual paper cash run on the banks by depositors.  It can delay or forego dividends to its shareholders and to the US Government.  Furthermore, it has $400 billion worth of gold valued at $46 billion.  So the issue is secondary. If interest rates went up that fast under that scenario, then obviously we would have much bigger worries. What would bring about such a rise and what would the policy implications be. 

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Actually, even a classic run on the banks could be handled by printing truckloads of cash and buying assets. Realistically I see no constraints on the Fed or any central bank. The consequences are another story. 

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The ECB operates with zero capital. I just don't understand the idea that a central bank could be "insolvent" in the sense of a business entity. I can't see how it would constrain the ability of the Fed to conduct policy. I had this discussion with Russ several times on our podcasts. The Fed that the Fed isn't constrained by normal processes like that is one of the problems. It has allowed all of this crazy shit. First Bernankecide kills the savers and the elderly, then The Taper comes for you. 

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First Bernankecide kills the savers and the elderly, then The Taper comes for you. 

 

Sounds like a dystopian nightmare. Maybe you should sell the movie rights?

 

LOL

 

I appreciate your reasoned deconstruction.

 

It sounds like we have an institution that can never perish regardless of its own misdeeds save by the intervention by Congress to revote its charter.  And what would motivate them to do so as long as the Fed allows them to forge checks? It would be interesting to read up on the political history that led to the failure of the previous three Federal Central Banks. It might offer some insight into our current place in history.  

 

 

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Wikipedia has an entry about the failure of the second Bank of the United States following the "Bank Wars:"

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicholas_Biddle_(banker)#The_Bank_of_the_United_States

 

"The "Bank War" began when President Jackson began criticizing the Bank early in his first term. Biddle, at the urging of Henry Clay and other Bank supporters, upped the ante when he applied for the Bank's re-charter in January 1832. This was four years before the charter was scheduled to expire and the hope was to force Jackson into making an unpopular decision that might cost him during an election year. But, once challenged, Jackson decided to veto the bill to re-charter the bank. Jackson, well known for his stubborn personality and steadfast leadership, still harbored ill will toward Clay from the 1824 presidential election. Clay's strategy failed and he lost to Jackson in November despite significant financial support from the Bank.

In early 1833, Jackson, despite opposition from his cabinet, decided to withdraw the government's funds out of the Bank. The secretary of the treasury, Louis McLane, professed moderate support for the Bank. He refused to withdraw the funds and would not resign, so Jackson transferred him to the state department to become secretary of state. McLane's successor, William J. Duane, was opposed to the Bank, but would not carry out Jackson's orders. After waiting four months, Jackson summarily dismissed Duane as well, replacing him with attorneys-general Roger B. Taney when Congress was out of session. In September 1833, Taney helped transfer the public deposits to seven state-chartered "pet" banks that were friendly to the administration. Faced with the loss of the federal deposits, Biddle decided to raise interest rates and deliberately induce a recession. A mild financial panic ensued from late-1833 to mid-1834. Meanwhile, Biddle and other Bank supporters attempted to renew the Bank's charter on numerous occasions. All of them failed.

In April 1836, the Bank's charter expired, but the institution continued as a state-chartered bank for several more years. In 1839, Biddle resigned from his post, and in 1841, amidst the panic of 1837, the Bank failed. Biddle was arrested and charged with fraud; he was later acquitted. He died soon after while still involved in civil suits."
 

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