Jetlag Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 Europe opening down 10%, this would be bristol stool chart n?9: Liquid stool with bits of interior organs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetlag Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 The wipeout in the market has probably rendered a negative net value in my contact's hedge fund. This means that the bank itself is now on the hook for the $7.5 billion it lent to the fund to leverage it. Take that and multiply it by the hundreds of funds of funds in the world. This is a catastrophe. The world as a whole is insolvent. The value of all stocks in the aggregate is now negative. 698432[/snapback] Now that's exaggerating everybody know there's strong support at zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joe3pack Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 The wipeout in the market has probably rendered a negative net value in my contact's hedge fund. This means that the bank itself is now on the hook for the $7.5 billion it lent to the fund to leverage it. Take that and multiply it by the hundreds of funds of funds in the world. This is a catastrophe. The world as a whole is insolvent. The value of all stocks in the aggregate is now negative.698432[/snapback] doc, any word on how leveraged was the average hedgie? prior to the great depression, many individuals were unbeleebably margarined @ 9:1--that's my point of reference for how effed we might be. our currect predicament seems a tad bit more worrisome. with some institutions pretending their wieners were 30x to 40x greater than actual size, with massive defaults on the obligations of fantasy capital, it seems that the amount of money that will be sucked out of equity and debt markets will be considerable. so, we're slightly effed, you were saying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetlag Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 The Bailouts and the market interference (the visible hand of the regumlators) have crashed obliterated the market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joe3pack Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 here be some masturbatory numerical comparisons. sure, comparing 1929 and 2008 is a bit like weighing the relative merits of washington apples and florida oranges, but i'll chew on these numeros anyhoo. in 1929, the sep 3 to nov 13 decline in the dow measured ~48%. a 48% decline from the tao's peak of 14198 in october 2007 would lead to 6815. suppose we use another starting point, one that better approximates the time frame of the 1929 kwash. if we measure 48% from the most recent peak (11867 in august 2008), we'd find ourselves @ 5696. and with the wide-angle lens: from 1929 to 1932, the dowager ultimately lost 89 howlin' percent. 89% from the october 2007 INDUstani peak would be 1562(!). mark your 2010 cave wall calendar. and 89% from the august 2008 intermediate high would be even dinkier. of course, history doesn't bring out the same minstrels--rather, it features cover bands, so it'll probably be different this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joe3pack Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 jetlagger, have you at the ready the dow 100 & dow 10 avatars? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetlag Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 jetlagger, have you at the ready the dow 100 & dow 10 avatars? 698471[/snapback] They might come in handy, except there won't be any internut probably to share them with you. Got your amateur radio transmitter ready? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joe3pack Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 They might come in handy, except there won't be any internut probably to share them with you. Got your amateur radio transmitter ready? 698473[/snapback] figgur the EMP will take out 'lectronics. hoping to get by on smoke signals and carrier pigeons. also need one of them boomerang-wielding feral children for bodyguard duty: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDGwZ9PNa0o&feature=related Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChicagoBear Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 I have a personal question to ask. I really respect the collective intelligence on this board and have greatly appreciated advice in the past. I?ve been wrestling with this decision and believe I know the answer, but would like to hear any thoughts you might have. I have a deadline to meet tomorrow, and obviously I am not sleeping with this and everything else that?s happening right now. I have stock in a private family business. The company does $700m selling kitchen sinks, cabinets, and drinking fountains. Obviously, the company just had some of the best years ever in its 80+ year history, but now it will have to endure the downturn in the housing industry. It has very little debt and is cash heavy (assuming they can get their cash). I sold half my stock last year in the 3rd quarter. I sold it to help finance a new business, but those plans are on the shelf right now. Needless to say, selling stock in a family business was/is not well received (not that I care at this point). I think I?m fairly well positioned at this point, being in 1/3 paper cash, 1/3 electronic cash (trading accounts), and 1/3 bullion/GLD. I think (hope) I will weather this storm and am salivating over some of the fixed income opportunities if the markets survive. I had felt pretty comfortable holding the remaining stock from a diversification standpoint. However, there are some very real doubts about their chances of survival. There will be zero new homes built in the foreseeable future, just about everyone who wanted to remodel their kitchen has done so through the home equity ATM (which is also dead for the foreseeable future), and the financial catastrophe we are witnessing will only serve to exasperate this industry downturn. I really doubt that they can weather a depression. So, would you sell the rest of the company stock, or let it ride? FWIW, there is zero chance they will ever try to sell the company. The majority shareholder has made this abundantly clear year after year. As their #1 company value states: ?we are in business forever.? Anyway, here?s the quandary. If I sell and get cash, I would have to park it in a bank(s) and ensure the accounts are under FDIC coverage. No problem, unless the whole banking system collapses. I doubt the FDIC could cover all accounts in the country, even if they insured all deposits (like they are talking about now). A systemic collapse would threaten the whole enchilada (except for the bullion). Of course, a systemic collapse would also threaten the viability of the company, so it looks like a lose/lose either way. But, if by some miracle the financial system survives, this becomes a choice between riding out the downturn in the industry, or having a huge chunk of change available to invest. I?m really salivating over some of the yields out there, especially on those close-end funds. If the markets survive, I could be looking at the investment opportunity of a lifetime. 15-20-25% fixed income from here on out would blow away any kind of possible return that might come from the company, not to mention the investment opportunities that will be present if/when the next bull market starts. As I boil this down, it seems like the smartest move is to sell the stock and pray that they save the financial system. Would anybody disagree? Why? TIA ? I deeply appreciate any insight. BTW ? headline just flashed on CNBS said: ?Japan government bonds dumped by dealer rush to cash.? Could this be a canary? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetlag Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 Pimpco on the hook for underwriting CDS against Lemon's default " The collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. may force sellers of credit-default swaps including Pacific Investment Management Co. to make the biggest- ever payout in the $55 trillion market. An auction to be held today will determine the size of the payments buyers of default protection can claim after New York- based Lehman filed for the largest bankruptcy with $618 billion in debt. Lehman's $128 billion of bonds were trading yesterday at an average of 13 cents on the dollar, indicating credit swap sellers may have to pay 87 cents on the dollar. ``That's a big hit,'' said Byron Douglass, a strategist at Credit Derivatives Research LLC in Walnut Creek, California. " http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...fbic&refer=home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phatbubble Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 doc, any word on how leveraged was the average hedgie? prior to the great depression, many individuals were unbeleebably margarined @ 9:1--that's my point of reference for how effed we might be. our currect predicament seems a tad bit more worrisome. with some institutions pretending their wieners were 30x to 40x greater than actual size, with massive defaults on the obligations of fantasy capital, it seems that the amount of money that will be sucked out of equity and debt markets will be considerable. so, we're slightly effed, you were saying? 698466[/snapback] Some European banks were leveraged 50:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetlag Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 SOW JONES YM overnight low: 8254 900Weak SMA: 8274 200Month SMA: 8470 Do these numbers mean anything at all? YM now at 8321 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 C N B C Europe just had Bill McLaren on the tele...He was modeling our current situation after the 1970 and 1973/1974 markets. He was pointing out that IF he was reading this correct we should rebound in the 780/880 SPX range around Oct 15 plus or minus a couple days. He seemed quite sure.... They cut him off when he started explaining WHY we were in this mess.... 698462[/snapback] Read it here http://www.mclarenreport.net.au/articles/a...rope/Page1.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetlag Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 I sold my last chort yesterday, was holding (and trading positions/position sizing) just one position now that was in my fartfolio since August 2007. That ETF is up big again today as the market is tanking almost anudder 10%. Maybe the crash is just beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phatbubble Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 Stated dollar LIBOR way down overnight edit: maybe somebody else can explain the OIS bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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