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B4 The Bell Thursday October 14


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Aug. trade deficit -$54 billion ... maybe the second-worst ever.

 

"Pretty good, huh?" - Jim Morrison

That's a current account deficit at about a $750 billion annual rate. :o

 

As per Gary North's article yesterday, that's a lot of Japanese lobsters we will have to collect.

 

I expect one day all the lobsters will be gone and, whether or not the US$ is fixed at a certain rate of exchange, we will suddenly not be able to buy much with our green fiat money.

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From Boomberg:

 

Crude oil accounted for 8 percent of all foreign shipments to the U.S. The value of U.S. oil imports rose in August to $12 billion from $10.6 billion the month before. The price of oil was $36.37 a barrel, compared with $33.28 in July. The volume of oil grew to 331.2 million barrels from 318.8 million.

 

Let's see, the near-record Aug. trade deficit was based on an average crude price of $36.37 ... and this morning it's at $53.70?

 

Sounds like we've got a couple of new record trade deficits baked in the cake for the next two monthly reports. :mellow:

 

GREEN LOBSTER ... all you can borrow!

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9:00am 10/14/04

Bernanke urges floating exchange rates for all By Rex Nutting

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Most economies in the world would benefit from floating exchange rates, increased capital mobility and policies that focus on low inflation, Federal Reserve Gov. Ben Bernanke said Thursday. Attempted to fix the exchange rate rarely works to lessen volatility except in the short run, he said in prepared remarks at a discussion on international capital flows at the Cato Institute. "Moving toward exchange rate flexibility is in the interest of China as well as the rest of the world," Bernanke said.

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Copper use in China, the world's biggest buyer, fell 21 percent in July from a year earlier, leading a worldwide decline of 3.3 percent, the Lisbon-based International Copper Study Group said earlier this week. Copper reached a 15-year high last week on expectations Chinese demand would continue to increase.

 

China's Import Growth Slows as Lending Curbs Bite

 

China will fail in it's efforts to become an economic superpower simply because it will lack the one thing that made it possible for the West to do so - cheap energy.

 

But then you knew that already, right? :rolleyes:

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Good Morning Crew- Da Batphone must have been glowing all night, they did a pretty good job of bringing this thing back from the dead. Futures were down a ton, they are down now, enough for a negative open. Today SHOULD be a continuation, technicals say it and trend says it but if the PPT comes in they can forestall it for awhile. The Astro's are negative only a couple of times today one is at the open. Window opens at the Bell for 30 Minutes...Helmets on, lock n load! ;)

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Rog: Fleck ( with F Hickeys assistance) figures intc wrote off around 485 million in inventory. He also claims that if production was cut back to in line with demand intc would not make any money.

I agree with both of them.

 

Isn't against the law not to disclose a writeoff of close to $450m? That would be ~20% of inventory at the time. That seems material to me. Anybody have a legal angle on this?

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from the link kwave posted "There's much in the OFHEO report to suggest that Fannie misapplied accounting rules to make both its earnings and regulatory capital look a lot stronger than they actually were. According to some estimates, Fannie may have excluded as much as $12 billion of losses from its income statement."

http://www.thestreet.com/_tscrmb/comment/detox/10187363.html

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China will fail in it's efforts to become an economic superpower simply because it will lack the one thing that made it possible for the West to do so - cheap energy.

 

But then you knew that already, right?  :rolleyes:

Interesting insight.

 

Presumably China has read "Comrade Faber's" analysis which shows that if even one-third of China reaches Korean levels of per capita energy consumption, it would require another 20 million barrels a day of crude oil -- two Saudi Arabias, in other words.

 

If I were China's energy minister, I'd be taking a hard look at nuclear power, at least as a stopgap until something else turns up.

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After much soul searching, my family and I have decided we can no longer live in the United States. I have resigned from my job here in Ft. Lauderdale, and we will be moving back to Canada (Edmonton) within a few weeks.

 

My dissatisfaction with current U.S. foreign policy is causing a growing sense of unrest in me which is affecting my family, work, and social lives. I feel like I am being pushed increasingly to the fringes of mainstream U.S. society because of my belief in a world community of nations and my vocal dissagreement with the policy of unilateral preemtive strikes. The repeated advice from friends and colleagues that "if I don't like it, I should just go back to Canada" has had its effect. We shall do just that.

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from the link kwave posted "There's much in the OFHEO report to suggest that Fannie misapplied accounting rules to make both its earnings and regulatory capital look a lot stronger than they actually were. According to some estimates, Fannie may have excluded as much as $12 billion of losses from its income statement."

http://www.thestreet.com/_tscrmb/comment/detox/10187363.html

Yes, but when they do so at the insistence of Alan Greenspan to keep the plates spinning, it's not illegal. There will be no trial.

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GM - I don't know what to make of it.  How did they miss earnings so badly yet exceed revenue estimates by so much?

 

How did they screw that up?

 

 

And they're cutting 12,000 jobs, mostly in Germany...that's gonna leave a mark.

When you hand your entire investment portfolio over to Gelber Trading's 990N account for the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve to "manage" on your behalf, revenues are virtually guaranteed!

 

For those who think that ridiculous, can anybody come up with some logical explanation as to how this virtually bankrupt company (with sales declining rapidly and credit lending in decline) managed to greatly exceed revenue expectations? Was it just due to lowered expectations?

 

Anybody?

 

GOLD UP $5.70!!!

I'm going to make a guess - they are using foreign exchange rates favorably to their advantage. It is the only thing that makes sense given a scenario of a failing business model.

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After much soul searching, my family and I have decided we can no longer live in the United States. I have resigned from my job here in Ft. Lauderdale, and we will be moving back to Canada (Edmonton) within a few weeks.

 

My dissatisfaction with current U.S. foreign policy is causing a growing sense of unrest in me which is affecting my family, work, and social lives. I feel like I am being pushed increasingly to the fringes of mainstream U.S. society because of my belief in a world community of nations and my vocal dissagreement with the policy of unilateral preemtive strikes. The repeated advice from friends and colleagues that "if I don't like it, I should just go back to Canada" has had its effect. We shall do just that.

I feel your pain, Twig.

 

Make the best of it.

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