Hiding Bear Posted July 30, 2004 Report Share Posted July 30, 2004 Welcome to B4 The Bell! The GDP will be released with benchmark revisions today. What will this revision of history reveal? Stay tuned: The GDP release on Friday will also include the annual revisions to past data, going back to 2001. "There is a great deal of uncertainty about this report," said Lou Crandall, chief economist for Wrightson ICAP. "Supply-side indicators such as the ISM surveys and industrial production point to growth well in excess of our 4 percent estimate, while the demand-side indicators from which GDP is actually tabulated suggest that growth might be somewhat below our estimate." http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?...gle&dist=google OOPS! M3 money supply, which fell about $55 billion two weeks ago, is making a recovery but still about the level it was 9 weeks ago. The same can be said for M2. Seems also that the liquid money supply, MZM, is going downhill: http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page5.pdf A declining money supply in the face of 5% inflation and 1% population growth indicates not only has the economy stalled - but may started turning down. Today's oil price over $43 confirms inflation in the economy is not transitory. The outlook for corporate profits in this environment remains poor, especially when you further consider that wholesale costs such as energy are soaring but retail prices charged are stable. I expected the Fed since June to accelerate the growth of the monetary base under its control to 'get the economy moving again'. Well it seems like they have started to push harder on monetary accelerator: http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf Doc said on July 15, talking about the faltering money supply: That's hig HB. BIG. And it's going to get worse. Much worse. The crunch is here. I have been pointing out, the credit bubble is shrinking. This stunning drop in broad money supply comes as no surprise to Stoolies. The implications are ominous, both for the markets and financial system at large. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 30, 2004 Report Share Posted July 30, 2004 Bears See Shadow 6 More Weeks In The Den Your Anals are loaded. Take a subscribatory and download RIGHT NOW! 30 Day Intro Subscribatory. Just $16.99! Get In RIGHT NOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Mad Hungarian Posted July 30, 2004 Report Share Posted July 30, 2004 Mark/wndysrf has consistently pointed out how "9000 Hedgehogs" are all gaming the same investments. Today's Wall Street Journal recognizes this reality as well with an interesting story on page C1 about how several hedge funds run by former proteges of Julian Robertson coincidentally have big positions in the same stocks, including some "favorites" on this board like Strayer Education, Career Education and Countrywide Financial. They were all LONG these stocks, BTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 30, 2004 Report Share Posted July 30, 2004 Not So Bad HUI Anticipates, Correctly? Your Golden Stool, including short and long term updated charts and price targets, is loaded. Even if you are not a goldbug, you should check out the Golden Stool. It's in your Anals daily. Take a subscribatory and download the Golden Stool RIGHT NOW! 30 Day Intro Subscribatory. Just $16.99! Get In RIGHT NOW!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rog Posted July 30, 2004 Report Share Posted July 30, 2004 explosions at U.S. and Israeli embassies in Tashkent, Uzbekistan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 30, 2004 Report Share Posted July 30, 2004 From briefing.com on GDP and futures 8:53AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -2.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.0. Futures indications stabilize and settle around moderately below fair value... A decline in Q2 Advanced GDP, a climb in crude oil prices, and modest losses in Europe have acted as a drag on the pre-market. 8:33AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -2.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.0. Futures trade drops some following the weaker than expected Q1 advanced GDP data... The figure came in at 3.0% versus the consensus of 3.7% and Q4 GDP final figure of 4.5%... As a result, the indices are set for a modestly lower open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted July 30, 2004 Report Share Posted July 30, 2004 Good Morning Crew- I was busy last nite and only made one post-in which I pointed out this is Full Moon Friday plus a Bradley Turn. Today should be WILD plus on Full Moons the moves get very exaggerated and if Bradley is on time we get a reversal. I think we fool the crowd today and have a sharp drop. Window at the Bell for 20 minutes, Helmets on-Buckle up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 30, 2004 Report Share Posted July 30, 2004 KLAC may be up 1.50 but Institutions are dumping. http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwa...ker?ticker=KLAC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zensmoke Posted July 30, 2004 Report Share Posted July 30, 2004 Oil prices hit fresh highs Fri 30 July, 2004 14:25 By Meg Clothier LONDON (Reuters) - U.S. oil prices have hit fresh record highs on fears of a disruption in supplies from world number two exporter Russia and doubts over oil cartel OPEC's ability to make up for any shortfalls. OPEC is pumping at more than 95 percent of capacity, the highest for a quarter of a century, giving it little room for manoeuvre in an emergency. U.S. light crude struck $43.34 a barrel on Friday, the highest in its 21-year history on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was last trading at $43.17, up 42 cents. http://www.reuters.co.uk/newsPackageArticl...section=finance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zensmoke Posted July 30, 2004 Report Share Posted July 30, 2004 News Release: Gross Domestic Product http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/newsrel/gdpnewsrelease.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traderfromhell Posted July 30, 2004 Report Share Posted July 30, 2004 Nice pop in the pm's early. Let's see if the volume picks up here or if this is another tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted July 30, 2004 Report Share Posted July 30, 2004 Window now closed- it was OK, Piggy flies alone for a bit-looking dazed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rog Posted July 30, 2004 Report Share Posted July 30, 2004 Chicago PMI @ 10 I think we see a weak order number. Perhaps masked by high prices paid and inventory numbers to make the estimate of 59 vs 56.4 in June Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zensmoke Posted July 30, 2004 Report Share Posted July 30, 2004 Bullhorn alert *DJ Tsy Snow: Econ Fundamentals `Strong'; A Lot Of Headroom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zensmoke Posted July 30, 2004 Report Share Posted July 30, 2004 Temporary Open Market Operations for July 30, 2004 Last updated: July 30, 2004 09:51 AM Number of operations today: 1 Delivery date: Friday, July 30, 2004 Maturity date: Monday, August 02, 2004 Type of operation: O/W RP Operation close time: 09:45 AM Total Money Value of Operation (in $bil.) 8.250 http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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