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IBD100 - Changes for 12/17/2004

 

First Timers: none this week

Added this week: UPL, COH, LEV, ATVI, JBHT, PRAA, RSTI, AAPL, RYL, UFCS

 

Dropped this week: TS, SHFL, SYMC, DVA, CHTT, TPX, RMBS, HRS, TXRH, ANSS

 

Stocks Moving Up with a Bullet: MRVL BSTE MSA CMN BG MTSC HUM MGG WIBC HYDL SRX GRMN KBH NAT CMTL

-----

Friday's MoMo:

SEB HUBG TONS WYNN IOC BTU MFRI ORBT WLT CETV PACT PDA WPTE NGPS ANTP CVTX CKCM IIIN NSS GBX ISON AKS GTOP PKOH FFEX ACR TWI WEB VDSI CFCI ALSK TRA PRFT FRD MANC MIPS CTT IED ICOC CDV CFS NXXI

 

Bulls: buy springs and retests (ice and creek)

Bears: sell failed upthrusts to support.

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Last night I caught the McLaughlin Group show. Astounding to hear mainstream pundits screaming about the oncoming economic calamity of a dollar/bond collapse and the ramifications of future Chinese dominance. Astounding. POR is very close.

 

 

 

From Mauldin's latest:

 

A dropping dollar is not going to magically fix the deficit as it did in the

80's. For one thing, the US manufacturing sector is a smaller percentage of the

total economy than it was 20 or even 5 years ago. So even if we see exports grow

a significant percentage, it is growth off a smaller base. It will take many

years of outsized export growth to catch up with our growing imports. (Unless,

of course, we see a recession and imports actually drop.)

 

That means for the trade deficit to come back into balance imports must go flat

or drop. The humbling reality is that across three decades, only one economic event has

been guaranteed to produce balanced trade in the English-speaking nations: a

recession.

 

The current global financial fragility is unlikely to be saved by mere dollar devaluation; it is solved when the respecting offending nations restraining their respective profligate tendencies and implement policies designed to restore national savings to their historic norms.

 

[email protected]

 

 

 

Everyone on the McGlaughlin Group was unanimous that POLICY CHANGES (including tax increases) were required for any hope of staving off the coming calamity, and obviously Bush is too stubborn and stupid to change course. He has "happy talked" his way though so far, and with Rove as his economic advisor, the country is doomed to failure. It is clear that this is not a situation that can be "grown out of." The cost of imports will rise exponentially, inflation will run rampant initially until people simply stop spending (six months?) and a recession will ensure that Bush's Pro-Growth strategy is dead-on-arrival.

 

Once it becomes clear to foreign exporters that the US has ceased to be a viable market for their exports, they will focus their attentions and their investments elsewhere - selling dollars and bonds in the process. The elimination of the US consumer from the world's marketplace will send the entire global inflation machine into reverse, as foreign companies scramble for markets and customers to replace those lost in the US. As the US is trying mightily to compete for global business with our dwindling manufacturing base, we will find that (despite the trade benefits provided by a weaker dollar) foreign governments will subsidize their own company's efforts to sell products at even lower prices in order to gain market share in a shrinking global economy that is cannabalizing itself.

 

As a global player in the world economy, the US will become increasingly irrelevant. Bush will threaten trade sanctions in an effort to bully foreign governments into supporting the dollar and the bond, but this time it won't work. The impacts on the US Real Estate market will be staggering.

 

To use a Mark metaphor, the US has been the rich, swashbuckling older guy that every woman wants to date. Foreign countries have courted us on trade matters for decades...making themselves look as attractive to us as possible. Now that the sophisticated and wealthy older gentleman has lost his fortune and requires a hip replacement, open heart surgery and cancer treatment all at the same time...all attention will be turned to courting China as the old American is left out in the cold, no longer the Player that everyone want s to date.

 

In the same way that manufacturers from around the globe have flocked to Bentonville, Arkansas for an opportunity to sell their products to Wal-Mart (on Wal-Mart's terms, or not at all), now the world's leaders are beating a path to China's door in hopes of becoming one of their loyal followers. Just this week, France chose sides...with China. China has already defeated the United States in a war for global dominance, without have fired a shot. How ironic is it that the Wal-Mart model provides the perfect metaphor for the global economy - in the race to zero-bound? And how ironic is it that Wal-Mart will suffer the greatest fall?

 

The looming global recession will be blamed entirely on the United States, for its arrogance, greed and excess. And they will be right. All of the world's money will flow to the lowest cost producer with the largest potential market.

 

China wins.

 

Remember how many friends the United States had the day after 9/11? George W. Bush has single-handedly guaranteed that when the US needs help in the future (and we will), we will be on our own...twisting in the wind. Where will the funding come from to maintain our military?

 

Will the Chinese move here to inhabit their newly claimed territory, or merely strip mine if for its resources?

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I have been going through some energy stocks and have found a few stocks that may be ready for a move imvho.

 

these are not penny stocks and ,with the exception of one, all trade over 100.000 shares a day.

 

i do not own any but will be watching these and probably buying some.

 

sorry i cannot post any charts.

 

do your own dd.

 

FTO

GMXR

IOC

MPET

TMR

MSSN

NBL

PCZ

PXD

PYR

 

I am no expert but believe I have learned something during my tenure here at stoolville.

:D :D :D :D

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Last night I caught the McLaughlin Group show.  Astounding to hear mainstream pundits screaming about the oncoming economic calamity of a dollar/bond collapse and the ramifications of future Chinese dominance.  Astounding.  POR is very close.

 

 

Will the Chinese move here to inhabit their newly claimed territory, or merely strip mine if for its resources?

Great job as always, Plunger. Even though all of us Stoolies know this is coming, it still makes this kitty scared.

 

How quickly we lost America. :ph34r: How sad. :(

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Thanks huey9, I'll take a look. The worm appears to be turning and as is so often spoken of here, money doesn't leave the market, it just moves. I'll post the charts on the ones that look interesting.

 

FTO is a refiner. Essentially it broke out and more or less sucsessfully retested both the breakout area and the 50dMA. As long as it holds that uptrend line it looks fine. MACD is on a buy signal and the other indicators look ok too.

post-1745-1103381317.png

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TMR

Three heavy volume days in November may have been a sign of capitulation. Not sure why it sold off earnings looked ok, maybe they missed by a penny. Showing a longer term chart to show the previous area of consolidation acted as support. Its a W, one of my favorites. MACD is on a buy signal. 50 has crossed under the 200. As huey9 said, do your own DD.

post-1745-1103382331.png

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WARNING FOR THE BULLS.

 

I'm not saying we are at a top here, just giving you guys a heads up of a possible turn......First time I've been bearish for awhile...........

 

Check out how the A/D has been getting worse.

 

Could be the higher oil prices, extreme sentiment, or both.

 

Wednesday was the last day any IBD Top 100 Mo-Mo stocks broke out. No breakouts on Thurs. or Fri. which were noteworthy.

 

From MarketVolume

 

http://www.marketvolume.com/email/promo_mv/adv_mv_arch_.asp

 

On December 13, 2004

 

388 stocks in the S&P 500 index belonged to the group of advancing issues, but only 102 were part of the group of decliners. Based on the number of issues, advances beat declines by a ratio of almost 4 to 1 (an A/D issues ratio of 3.80). This indicates a strongly positive market breadth;

 

December 14, 2004

 

327 stocks in the S&P 500 index belonged to the group of advancing issues, but only 160 were counted among the group of declining issues. Based on the number of issues, advances beat declines by a ratio of almost 2 to 1 (an A/D issues ratio of 2.04). The A/D volume ratio (of 1.43) was less positive than the A/D issues ratio, indicating that market breadth was still positive, but not to the extent seen on December 13;

 

On December 15, 2004

 

only 297 stocks were in the advancing issues group, while 197 belonged to the group of declining issues. You can see how the balance between advancing and declining stocks shifted slowly from December 13 to December 15. On December 15, winners beat losers by a margin of about 5 to 3 (based on issues), but only by a margin of 11 to 10 (based on volume) - we calculated an A/D issues ratio of 1.51 and an A/D volume ratio of 1.10. This data tells us that despite the S&P 500's rise by 0.48% on December 15, sentiment was more neutral than positive;

 

On December 16, 2004

 

Declines beat advances by a ratio more than 2 to 1 (an A/D issues ratio of 0.44); however, in terms of volume, this ratio was reduced to 10 to 7 (an A/D volume ratio of 0.70). While 342 stocks in the S&P 500 index belonged to the group of declining issues, only 150 were part of the advancing group - market breadth was negative.

 

December 17, 2004

 

On this date, 315 stocks in the S&P 500 index were counted among the group of declining issues, yet only 178 belonged to the group of advancing issues. In other words, losers topped winners by a margin of about 2 to 1 (an A/D issues ratio of 0.57). In terms of A/D volume, the ratio was somewhat greater - about 3 to 1 (an A/D volume ratio of 0.32). Market breadth was clearly negative on Friday, and getting worse.

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