DrStool Posted December 17, 2004 Report Share Posted December 17, 2004 Wndy is enjoying hit Bday. Let's hear it from you Wndy and Ags wannabees. I shall return! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 17, 2004 Report Share Posted December 17, 2004 All bears wiped out. Dead. Rode their last aSSblaSSt up up up into the sky. Gone to heaven. Happier there. No more brutal reamings. Everything is beautiful. May God have mercy on 990N and those behind him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anoscope Posted December 17, 2004 Report Share Posted December 17, 2004 All bears wiped out. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> a down day is a good day...when you are short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 17, 2004 Report Share Posted December 17, 2004 All bears wiped out. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> a down day is a good day...when you are short. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Yeah I had a bunch of short call spreads expire worthless or bought back for nickels or dimes today. And got called away on a bunch of covered call dong positions. And had some naked Dec Greenspan puts expire worthless, and rolled my naked index calls to Jan and Mar. But I suspect a lot of bears didn't survive this Oct - Dec cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sudaca Posted December 17, 2004 Report Share Posted December 17, 2004 All bears wiped out. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Not true! I am actually in the money on an SMH short that I put on a couple of weeks ago, reversing a 2 month long that paid off nicely. Time for stocks to go down, now, methinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sudaca Posted December 17, 2004 Report Share Posted December 17, 2004 COT shows there was a decent amount of spec long liquidation in gold and silver, but I think it isn't over yet. PM stocks are also gonna get hit for another leg down before any decent bounce. PM stock price action last couple of days has been bad, underperforming gold big time. CFTC COTR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted December 17, 2004 Report Share Posted December 17, 2004 Launching another 1.5% today, the CRB index mounted to within 2% of its 21-year high set at the end of November. A large pop in the energy complex (crude, unleaded and heating oil) helped provide the impulse ... along with another 4-1/2 year high in coffee. On the chart, you can see that the CRB found support at its 200-day MA, for several days in a row. As of today's close, it moved back up through the 50-day MA too. CRB chart The 'round number magnet' at 300 is likely to attract the CRB, followed by the all-time high at 337.60 (set in late 1980). Commodities, I think, are the 'bull market of the decade.' Those who worry about demand in a weak economy should note that commodities' sharpest gains occurred during recession/stagflation years such as 1973-74 and 1979-1980. Dollar depreciation trumps GDP slackness, when it comes to commodity prices. The stock 'market' sideshow is somewhere in the vicinity of its Bubble II top. With trivial dividend yields (0.92% on the DJTA), renewed IPO fever, and heavy insider selling, it has nothing to offer ... except to the mo-mo waterbugs skittering frantically on the surface, looking for 2-minute scalps. (What happens to waterbugs during flash floods, anyway?) Why bust your tail competing with 9,000 hedge fund computers plugged directly into all the dealers' books (which means they will beat you out of the spread every time), when there's a 'buy and hold' commodity bull market underway that's a lot less crowded ... and is, in effect, government-subsidized by the 'talk loudly and carry a small toothpick' dollar policy? As always, Death to the dollah! Death to the Naz! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 17, 2004 Report Share Posted December 17, 2004 COT shows there was a decent amount of spec long liquidation in gold and silver, but I think it isn't over yet. PM stocks are also gonna get hit for another leg down before any decent bounce. PM stock price action last couple of days has been bad, underperforming gold big time. CFTC COTR <{POST_SNAPBACK}> since it may be premature to get excited about gold, we're only 200 bucks off the low, can't be sure the trend is up yet I suggest taking a only small test long position here then gradually adding to it as it rises at 450 then 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 (no need to rush into these things) I plan to lighten up slightly on rallies near 2500 area just to diversify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I_Am_Madness Posted December 17, 2004 Report Share Posted December 17, 2004 How you want to be a writer and wake up to this??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
h2orush Posted December 17, 2004 Report Share Posted December 17, 2004 I WAS a bear and capitulated in August of 2003, 4 months into the start of a massive 2 year rally.I had shorted the SPX at what looked to be a top in April 2003, 2 months into the Bull run. I sustained big losses on SPX shorts via RYDEX...lucky for me I woke up and smelled the coffee, stopped listening to Hypertiger, Got long, and made it all back and then some....Have not had a short on since then...Playing with fire against the trend. That all being said, Im getting to be a nervous bull, and think the top of the run is near....Thinking about selling all longs soon, and getting short once again....Ride the ebb and flow....Weekly SPX sure looks toppy....In fact we put in high volume inverted hammer this week...Very interesting Will NOT be shorting GOOG, TZOO or any highflyers...Learned too many times not to short high Beta Trader Momentum stocks. They look so ripe, yet too many specualtors willing to jam em. Much better to short POS low priced issues that dwindle to a nickel a share from 5 bucks or so....Gotta look to the trash heap to find the junk right? Why short stocks that have had huge runs with great earnings? Just cause they look extended? Bad idea. DAL is one my favorite short ideas right now, expecting bankruptcy by Feb, despite all the hype of concessions etc....Oil stays here and it a done deal. Cheers to stoolieville, have a good weekend! Marky Mark take a quick back to Hawaii for big wave Windsurfing? Did you see anyone BIG wave sailing at Hookipa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GTNWORSE Posted December 17, 2004 Report Share Posted December 17, 2004 Would not want to be short the buck right here, and think it might be a bit too soon to be buying gold: REUTERS UPDATE 1-IMM goes short euro for first time since Nov. 2001 December 17, 2004 16:57:25 (ET) By Jamie McGeever NEW YORK, Dec 17 (Reuters) - Currency speculators in the Chicago futures market dramatically flipped their bets on the euro in the week to Dec. 14 to establish a net short position, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday. This is the first time International Monetary Market accounts have been net short of euros -- effectively betting that the currency will weaken -- in over three years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 17, 2004 Report Share Posted December 17, 2004 Feb Gold 442.90 +4.70 today not bad but nothing to get too excited about yet just sold some more naked April puts buy stops 446, 451, 461, 471, 481 I'll be notified as they're hit whenever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tchaikofsky Posted December 17, 2004 Report Share Posted December 17, 2004 Close: Broad-based selling interest prompted by negative news in the drug sector set a bearish tone that never reversed course, in spite of comforting inflation data... Pfizer (PFE 25.89 -3.09), which was halted at the open after it said one of two cancer trials linked to its painkiller Celebrex showed increased risk of heart damage, was the largest factor adding to the overall negative bias... The warning sent a ripple effect through the market as more than 270 million shares of the world's largest drug maker exchanged hands, accounting for 10% of the entire volume on the NYSE... The sell off took competitor Merck (MRK 31.59 -0.20), another Dow component, down with it, and kept buyers reluctant to hold stocks heading into the weekend... A 7% decline in drug maker AstraZeneca (AZN 37.12 -3.09), after its lung cancer drug Iressa failed to show significant survival benefits in patients, didn't help matters either as the drug sector (-3.0%) got hammered... Quadruple witching options expiration activity also prompted strong market activity across the indices, as volumes on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq topped 1.0 bln shares by noon and traded more than 4.8 bln shares combined... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted December 17, 2004 Report Share Posted December 17, 2004 Feb Gold 442.90 +4.70 today not bad but nothing to get too excited about yet just sold some more naked April puts buy stops 446, 451, 461, 471, 481 I'll be notified as they're hit whenever <{POST_SNAPBACK}> At the end of 1979, in the mutual fund rankings, gold-oriented funds were No. 1 for: - the past quarter - the past year - the past 5 years - the past 10 years - the past 15 years Let's see ... 2001 plus 15 years ... equals 2016. * checks watch * Yeah ... we still got time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dozer Posted December 17, 2004 Report Share Posted December 17, 2004 shorty... h20, tanks for the chart. While all the signs are ringing the down-alarms, I have to notice on that chart that it broke up out of a flat-top around July, and also broke out of "somewhat of a top" around the April line. So even though this last big runup in October was off a bottom, it -can- and -does- blow up out of the end of a flat top. I have given up practically all overnight holdings, let alone anything longer. This has vastly reduced the stress in my trading Now, I don't give a damn HOW they manipulate it, up or down. I make money on the moves themselves. Today, I did my usual boring thing with CAT falling off a cliff in the morning. I wanted to follow it up too, but with the expectation of a down-day, I chickened out. Too bad, cuz it retraced almost all the way back up. Machine: good report on the commods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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