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anoher Bull flag

 

The only bull flags I see are on some energy related stocks.

 

I remain BEARISH and believe the 4-year cycle top and top of this cyclical bull market that began March 2003 was put in early this March, 2005.

 

HOM on a sell since 3-16-2005 (Long Term SP500 signal)

 

CT is in CASH, I am anticipating the next short signal will be a big gainer.

I also will be taking out some LEAP put options on this next signal.

 

Currently my only trading positions are short the HHH with SL just over 60 and long Rydex Juno RYJUX from 19 (see prior posts).

 

BKX continues to behave extremely poorly and all my bond indicators are on SELL.

Rising rates and stubborn inflationary pressures will continue to strangle the economy.

 

Hank

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We continue to enter a very high crash potential environment.

 

CT is stuck in CASH.

I am a little disappointed again it didn't position us for this drop but it has its reasons and I still look forward to making money on my favorite side of the market, SHORT.

 

I am doing well with my HHH short, so at least I am getting something out of this correct call on the market!

 

Here is the HOM signal chart. I use it to time some money in my 401K with an SP index fund since Hussman's fund is not available in it. Been out since 3-16-05 of course.

 

Hank

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Weekend Update:

 

CT = CASH

HOM = SELL (since 3-16-05)

 

Short term signals still on BUY and we have had a bit of a pop.

 

Still looking for much more downside action soon.

 

BKX still anemic... very critical support not too far down which is going to at least be retested on the next big decline.

 

Short HHH

 

Hank

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The Kondratiev Winter paradigm means that interest rates will not rise dramatically, because the Chinese (and others) will continue to support low interest rate policy, fully understanding the financial costs, in order to build the power of their state. Thus, the economy will not be thrown into recession, sending stocks into a deep bear market, despite burgeoning debt and high oil prices, both of which will likely persist. I do not expect a recession coinciding with the next Kitchin cycle low in 2006, but rather with the next Kitchin cycle low in 2010. As I discussed in my article last month[8], stock valuations according to P/R are not unusually high and advances to considerably higher levels before the next recession in 2008-2010 are to be expected.

 

Michael Alexander

 

 

Mike is one of the few out there I pay much attention to and have read all his books and articles. As usual he gives the most comprehensive and detailed explanations after applying his unparalleled genious as a research scientist to the "dismal science". He is calling for a similar scenario to Glen Neely with this decline into 2006 not being too bad...Neely doesn't see 2002 lows being taken out... but the next bear into 2010 as the BIG ONE.

Mike also feels we are in a long term decoupling of interest rates and commodity inflation.

Anyway I hope some of you find this interesting as it pertains to the ongoing inflation/deflation debate.

 

Hank

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  • 2 weeks later...

CT signal remains in CASH.

HOM on SELL.

 

Short Term indicators very strong now... still must hold off on any more shorting.

 

HHH close to hitting TS for slight profit.

 

Be careful out there for now bears. Almost better to try a few dongs.

But this is only making me more convinced we are seeing a large degree top being put in.

 

 

Bullish HI-5 on NDX:

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Thanks for the update.

 

I see financials, Latin America, and FTSE ready to outperform to the upside. The broad market may still be trying to form a IT bottom and test the downside before going up for the IT (1-2 months). Cannot predict how high it goes - will leave that to the guru's.

 

However, if in the next IT uptrend, the NYA cannot take out the previous high, it will be clear evidence that the 4 yr cycle has topped.

 

I like to look at the NYA as that is the index most institutional traders watch.

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HOM fires off a BUY signal today 5-11-05

 

CT also says go LONG 5-11-05

 

I will be opening a QQQQ LONG position tomorrow at open unless futures are wacked down, then wait for things to settle and enter.

 

 

HOM chart:

 

Last HOM was a profitable short signal or good time to CASH out as I did.

Will be also putting some money into SP index fund using HOM system

tomorrow.

 

I now see a much better likelyhood we are in the final leg of expanding triangle that will take us to that secondary high and final 4-yr cycle top in next month or two.

 

HaNK

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OK, we are LONG at QQQQ = 36.02 as the CT signal went to BUY status this week.

 

So far the trade is letting us breath easy.

We popped above the 50 day SMA and major trendline now, so some hope from a pattern perspective.

 

Market internals continue to improve and I sure would not be shorting here but only feel slightly better being long...actually I am always more comfortable holding short positions...bad news always gets much more dumpage than good news gets boner runs. And now with the increase in volatility and all the sh__ going on in the world anything can bust a long position in a flash.

I haven't had much fun trading last year and so far this one has been almost worse. Very scant signals being generated anymore in my systems and I can't help but think all the program trading and hedge hog activities are responsible.

 

Good Luck out there,

 

Hank

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CT continues on BUY and our QQQQ's in money.

Can't ask for a stronger launch than this, HI-5 large bullish divergence preceeded the buy signal and now has surged massively on this hopefully just the first leg up.

Now through all SMA's 20,50,200...

Upper BB opening up for higher highs...

 

Looks like a big shift in MO-MO may be in the works...gonna go with it... :rolleyes:

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