DrStool Posted February 21, 2003 Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 I hope some students show up today. Would hate to close the library before it got off the ground, but if there's no demand, c'est la vie. Remember, charts and TA discussion only in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 21, 2003 Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 I show up every day, Doc - it's just that I don't like to post when I don't have anything worthwhile to say. Now, is it me or does this look like a mini-bull flag with an implied upside target right at the upper downsloping line? Regards, Vesselin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oyster Posted February 21, 2003 Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 Doc...I am posting everything in intraday....what suits best? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclist Posted February 21, 2003 Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 Is there a way to post to both boards simultaneously. Obvious, the people in intraday want the information as well as the folks here. It's just that the folks here want ONLY the TA. Oyster, I hope you continuew to post intraday as well. Regards.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BusKow Posted February 21, 2003 Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 Dr. B, Market timer Tim Ord is aligned w/your thinking. His target is the mid point of the gap. He feels if we get through there w/volume (part of his system is comparative volume at swing points) that 1500 is possible. This from interview at Market Views, where his chart is shown. Most Exulted Doctor S, I come by regularly also, but only as a student of swing trading technique. I sadly thus far, only aspire to a skill level worthy of distribution here... My mindset and bandwidth cannot support day trader's frenzy. I would hope the skilled individuals who regularly post to IDS would support this forum. Perhaps some way could be devised to "echo" their TA-centric posts here. Much like Ms MP did that first night. I would be saddened to see the concept fail and salute you for providing the resources in a factual test of interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted February 21, 2003 Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 Dr. V: Yeah, the bull flag might be in play. Bears need to be careful here. Sentiment turned dramatically worse this week. Still expecting possible retest of Jan. highs. "The percentage of bulls in the membership of the American Association of Independent Investors plunged to the lowest level in the almost 16 years. There were only 21.1% bulls, and the bulls as a percent of the bulls plus bears was just 27% -- also a new low. Similarly, the 8-week average fell to 41%, another new low. The second to lowest numbers were reached in December of 1991 and were followed almost immediately by a 9% rally over the next month. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted February 21, 2003 Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 How recent is that data from AAII, Mark? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted February 21, 2003 Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 Yields not confirming this drop- FVX actually rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 21, 2003 Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 Oyster, it's up to each poster to decide for themselves. I personally prefer less "noise" and would be delighted if you choose to post here - but it's ultimately your choice. Cyclist, alas, it's not possible to "cross-post". For a post to appear in two threads, it has to be posted twice. BusKow, 1500 better not be "possible". If we break above the upper downsloping trendline on the chart I posted, a much larger bull flag gets into play and we'll be going much higher than "only" 1500. :shocked Fortunately, this seems to be a very low-probability scenario to me. Greg, that AAII data is very recent. I just looked at some charts and they are scary! :shocked I'll post a couple of charts in a moment, if you promise me not to ask how I've obtained them But the AAII bulls haven't been that few since 1993! :shocked Even worse is the AAII bear/bull ratio, which hasn't been that high since 1992! Our only hope is that the AAII sentiment roughly follows the market and flaps in the wind with it - so, at best, these values are only a short-term indicator for a bounce - nothing like an indication for an intermediate-term low. Regards, Vesselin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 21, 2003 Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 AAII Bulls - weekly chart. Regards, Vesselin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 21, 2003 Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 AAII Bear/Bull ratio, weekly chart. A move above the upper horizontal line is a Buy signal. You can't see it on such a small chart, but a spike above that line predicted the recent bounce. Regards, Vesselin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 21, 2003 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 The AAII data is troublesome, but price rules. I will be watching the cycle paths closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted February 21, 2003 Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 Hopefully that covers the bounce we've just had, but the key word is "hope". Damn, this could change things for me here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted February 21, 2003 Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 Yet the put to call ratios are still low. Any way to compare put to call ratios with the AAII data and SPX price? That could tell the whole sentiment story in a nutshell. I wonder where the CPC was at the time of the AAII buy signals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 21, 2003 Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 Greg, it's doable but not easy. Note that since the AAII data is available on a weekly basis only, the CPC and SPX charts will have to be in this timeframe too. What kind of period are you interested in? The raw CPC or some sort of MA of it? Regards, Vesselin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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