Direwolf Posted February 21, 2003 Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 squak box reporting BRIDGE in NYC on fire.....explosion......more coming.... dw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted February 21, 2003 Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 You're the better technician, Dr. B. Something that would let us compare. I'm inclined towards Oyster's thesis, that this spike represents the beginning of the recognition wave, which, like a spiking CPC, could be very bearish in the short term, pointing to the beginning of The Big Slide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slothrop Posted February 21, 2003 Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 Agree with VB that we have unfinished upside bidniz...around 860, maybe 870 S&P. We filled the 835 gap this am and now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 21, 2003 Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 Oyster's point (that this might be the beginning of the recognition phase) is a good one, as usual. Greg, here's a comparison chart; I hope it is of any use. Have to run now; duty calls (my real job, that is). Regards, Vesselin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackbelt Posted February 21, 2003 Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 Agree with VB that we have unfinished upside bidniz...around 860, maybe 870 S&P. We filled the 835 gap this am and now... 858 is 360 degrees from the 806 low. The problem is the date. 2/18/03 was the most important date of the month. Then comes 2/21/03 (today). and then we are looking at early March... Currently I don't see how we can go to 858, although it's possible. It has to happen either today or Monday My $.02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted February 21, 2003 Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 Beautiful, Dr. B. Thank you! Welcome, Blackbelt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 21, 2003 Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 AAII Bear/Bull ratio, weekly chart. A move above the upper horizontal line is a Buy signal. You can't see it on such a small chart, but a spike above that line predicted the recent bounce. Regards, Vesselin Vesselin, Where do you get this data? It is different than this: Investor Sentiment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackbelt Posted February 21, 2003 Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 Hi Greg, I can't post a chart at this moment due to too much data on it, but today at 14:30 +/-1 hour is a "good" turn. It's the measurement from the 12/2/02(H) to 1/13/03(H) projected forward one time. "Usually" these get to be "good" turns Since we have a daily turn as well (2/21/03) we need to keep our eyes open around that time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted February 21, 2003 Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 Should prove interesting, BB, particularly given the opex forces at work today. I'm expecting QQQ 25 to hold, or very close to it. Note that many optionholders will not exercise if the difference between the price paid for the contract is insignificant relative to the closing price... so they can afford to miss maxpain by a few cents. One would expect price to remain pinned today, but then there are yours and others' timings, astros, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackbelt Posted February 21, 2003 Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 Here is the current position of the SPX using a 240m chart. Geomertically, the 806 low happened in a good support area. The rally since there is "too small" and out of proportion to the previous swings... The key here is to be able to identify which was the "real low". Was it the one on 2/13 or the real low came on 1/27 (circled date) and since then we are in a "corrective" move? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 21, 2003 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 Sentiment follows the trend. Analyze price. Not sentiment. Price determines sentiment, not vice versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richmtn Posted February 21, 2003 Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 No arguement with Doc on that. I'm with Duke re questioning the numbers. My impression over recent weeks is that those guys are still bullish with few bears. I'm a little concerned about bull flags on shorter timeframes. Longer term I'm a kodiak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sniff Posted February 21, 2003 Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 good to see TA posters here. I lean this direction so may post some here... While the markets flop around, trying to hammer out at bottom? I have been chasing the momentum stocks around. You know, the ones with parabolic swings. So you find a nice juicy short, running wildly into short term resistence.... Oh, boy, you jump in hoping to make a killing, then Oh sh*t... it keeps on going up....So, as Doc and maybe others? Often say. check the longer timeframes/cycles.... Eyes left for previous resistence and gaps on the longer timeframes for possible stopping points... BB, good to see you here. I am doing a lot with gartley, butterflys and fibs.... spent some time over at Larry Pesavento's site.. hopefully learned a bit., wouldn't mind seeing some Gartley posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BurnInHellMF Posted February 21, 2003 Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 AAII Bear/Bull ratio, weekly chart. A move above the upper horizontal line is a Buy signal. You can't see it on such a small chart, but a spike above that line predicted the recent bounce. Regards, Vesselin Vesselin, Where do you get this data? It is different than this: Investor Sentiment You're looking at the investors intelligence (IIAS). V is charting the AAII. Personally, I think the IIAS is the more reliable indicator. Keep in mind the AAII is not computed the way it used to be so making historical comparisons may not be appropriate. BTW, V, what is with the big secret on how you got the AAII to chart from stockcharts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slothrop Posted February 21, 2003 Report Share Posted February 21, 2003 Classic ABC corrective pattern. From the 2/17 lows we've seen the A and the B completed this am and now we're on our way to the final corrective up before the historic sell-off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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