Monthly Digger - September 2009

[anjing bau]

FA guy says buy

TA guy says SHORT

the majority says long...90+ % bullish

 

this dog says .....

triple top on waning momentum on the weekly/daily...W's flying around all over the place..... 3 distribution days in quick succession...break the recent swing @ 96.85 on more than 22 million sets up an ABCD down.... and will IMO confirm the CIT..... I see 86.83 followed by 77.09.... of course to take out these levels were going to need some decent juice on the downside.....

 

if the Skanks/yanks don't want to strengthen their currency then lets help them.....everyone issue soverign debt in USD.... now that would put a bid under bucky

[traderfromhell]

Assume a low of $780 spot Gold. Dealer wants $830 for a Gold Eagle. Assume investor bot all his physical Gold at $325. Assume a profit of $700 per coin. 28% tax bracket. I would not sell physical.

[traderfromhell]

TCG ain't that the get right sit tight guy with the straw hat?

[Charmin]

FA guy says buy

TA guy says SHORT

the majority says long...90+ % bullish

 

this dog says .....

triple top on waning momentum on the weekly/daily...W's flying around all over the place..... 3 distribution days in quick succession...break the recent swing @ 96.85 on more than 22 million sets up an ABCD down.... and will IMO confirm the CIT..... I see 86.83 followed by 77.09.... of course to take out these levels were going to need some decent juice on the downside.....

 

if the Skanks/yanks don't want to strengthen their currency then lets help them.....everyone issue soverign debt in USD.... now that would put a bid under bucky

 

OMG the dog is Baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaak????

 

Let's all vote for deflation, cuz that would be the only way we'd probably have gold below 800 again.

[Ageka]

I decided to keep my physical

With a 75 % deflation it will be facevalue after all

 

[Whadda I Do Whadda I Do]

.....wonder how TCG will be able to afford to get back to the States.

[dharma]

i read this post on another board, and i found it interesting, so i am posting it here

jake bernstein take on seasonals:

 

If you have been a subscriber to one of my services, a seminar or webinar attendee, or a mentoring

student then you know that one of the 5 major market tools I use is seasonality. I have been

researching, using, teaching and writing about seasonals since the early 1970’s. I believe that I

have the most through and well researched seasonal information in the stock and commodity

markets. In spite of the fact that seasonals as I use them are 100% objective, clear, specific and

well researched. Despite all of the above there are still traders out there who have no idea that

seasonality exists. Furthermore, some of the regulatory agencies in futures have, for many

years, been on record as claiming that seasonal factors are taken into consideration before the

fact and that their effect is therefore minimized because “everyone” knows them. When I consider

such points of view I have to sit back and restrain my desire to scream. Why? For one

thing, the claim that “everyone knows” about seasonals is utter nonsense and just plain untrue.

The fact that many people know something doesn’t mean they know how to implement it or that

they will do it correctly. But more importantly there are literally hundreds of seasonals that have

been highly accurate for many years despite the fact that they have been known by many traders.

The Gold Seasonal

For a number of weeks I have been telling you about the coming seasonal in gold futures. I advised

you that the period of time from 15 September through 25 September has historically been

one during which gold prices tend to rise and often sharply. I published the seasonal chart on the

front page of this newsletter. I wrote about it in my COT Weekly newsletter. I talked about it on

my weekly Commodity TV interview. I wrote about it and talked about it on my weekly Yorba.tv

interview. I talked about it on my weekly WallSt.net interview. I taught the seasonal trade to my

mentoring students. We all knew in clear and objective terms ahead of time that the tendency

was not 100% correct but we knew the risks and the odds and the pattern. We knew our exit

strategy both from the stop loss standpoint and the profitable outcome. Admittedly we did not

know the extent to which the market would move. We did not know that gold would have its largest

one day percentage gain in history but we DID KNOW that during this time of the year there

have been crises in the past that pushed gold sharply higher.

dharma

[Whadda I Do Whadda I Do]

[Gold Majestic]

D-man...got your pm's, just checking into the forum before I head abroad...

 

Bear. I'm personally shorting gold here with 400% leverage...and telling you in advance.

 

When the trade is this crowded...I'm a cheerin for - Da' Bears...

 

Take it easy and I'll see you all in January-February-March...

 

Get it...

 

The CoinGuy

 

P.S. Yes. I sold my core and my physical held since 2001.

 

As we continue to witness, this secular Bull Market in Gold / Gold Stocks will carry as few on board as possible. As we so often observe from the “Charts Tell All / Fundamentals Useless” shorts, they provide no grounds for their position other than the Commercials "Net Short" data or the US Peso Bear trade "over-crowded" mantra. Unfortunately, they're the first to get “bucked off” this secular Bull in Gold / Gold Stocks selling/shorting at historic bottoms.

 

I believe the overwhelming amount of “Confusion and Ignorance based Fear” last Winter ’08 shook the very core of these former Bulls now Turned Bears. It’s very sad that they’ve missed such a HUGE advance from historic Oct '08 low and are still, even now jumping from the frying pan (after selling at last winter’s bottom), into the fire, (shorting Gold / Gold stocks at the exact wrong time).

 

Again, anyone without an appreciation for understanding what makes these markets tick, will continue making such historically bad investment decisions.

 

We have much further to go in this cycle, 2015 and beyond.

[Ageka]

It is easy to leave the market with 10 million ; you only have to enter it with 100 million

 

I hope he owns that foundation if not he is going to be fired the next 15 months If yes he is going to lose a lot of junk

paper . Could this be disinformation at its finest ? Me I believe so

[Gold Majestic]

I find it rather amusing when I keep reading that everyone is supposedly "Bullish" on Gold and "Bearish" on the USD.

I keep finding the opposite!

 

Gold / Gold Stocks?

NEM / AEM? Extremely hard to borrow at two of the brokers I have accounts with (Schwab/TD Ameritrade, and same at Fidelity as well.) And GLD/GDX? NOT borrowable at all.

 

No, from my viewpoint it's definitely the Gold Bears that are in the "Crowded Trade."

 

And I agree with Hulbert on that score (already posted before):

What's it going to take?

Commentary: No indication of when gold skeptics will become gold bulls

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-are-t...-08?siteid=nbkh

 

As for COTS?

 

IMO, there's WAY too much BEARISH company at a time of such LITTLE BULLISH SENTIMENT among the investing public, especially when compared to the last time gold reached the $1,000 level. And all these Bears keep citing the same reason, "The Commercial Net Short" position.

 

As a couple of us have continued to explain over the many years, the Commercials have been “Net Short” Gold the entire move in the secular Bull market in Gold since 2001 and “NET WRONG” the ENTIRE move as well! Granted from time to time, they do mark tops and bottoms give or take a few weeks or months, but still “NET WRONG!”

 

But more importantly, extreme net short positions have not always marked tops in gold.

 

For instance, most recently from the week of Oct 16 ’07 to March 18 ’08. The Commercial Net Short position remained at approx. -240,000 contracts while the price of gold ROSE from $750 to $1,033!!! THE COMMERCIAL NET SHORT POSITION FAILED TO MARK A TOP DURING THIS PERIOD OF TIME, THUS WRONG AGAIN!

 

From 01/03/06 to 03/14/06, Commercial Net Shorts ranged from -190,000 to -128,000 while Gold ROSE fro $500-$575! Again, wrong!

 

From mid '05 to May 2006, Gold went from $436 to $730 while the commercials were forced to cover, again WRONG!

 

A few facts deserve being highlighted here. The largest moves in Gold / Gold Stocks over this secular Bull market have occurred from the Commercial "Net Short” Failures in which they were FORCED TO COVER.

 

Without spending time going into detail, suffice to say that the dynamics of those comprising the Commercials have changed substantially. There used to be a large percentage of Gold Producer "hedgers," but now only remain the investment banks that were bailed out last year. And now we have the Chinese, Indians, Middle Easterners Russians, etc that are buyers in size and are vying for supply at a time when Commercial Shorts are stressed to come up with enough available physical gold to meet their demand.

 

Gold’s trading elasticity is widening, meaning daily price swings are much more common and formidable. Gold can rally $20 these days much faster than in the past. Once $1,000 Gold is behind us, the trading ranges will widen further. When Gold begins its big move, some commercials not able to take the heat will be forced to cover. Today, a HUGE NET SHORT position signals just more "Fuel for the Rocket Launch" destined to come eventually.

[traderfromhell]

I won't be taken out of longs because I use no leverage anymore. The chart of tangibles versus paper is right on. This is clearly the age of tangible assets. I think you can draw a parallel between the Crash of 1987 to the 2008 move down in Gold from 1033-680. We have a loong ways to go in Gold and Silver. As for the massive short position in COT if this market doesn't correct hard down soon we will see a massive spike north. Just my 2 cents.

[Gold Majestic]

Now if the Bears are really so desperate to short something, try the MOST OVER CROWED TRADE ON THE PLANET (NEXT TO THE US PESO LONGS), the Bond market.

 

However, I find it much wiser/safer to stick with the Inflation/Debasement Beneficiaries as a couple of us know what the Bond Market is susceptible to, Bernanke's "Euphemized/Eulogized-By Any Other Name" Monetization to keep shorts on their toes.

 

Note Hulbert's article below regarding "sentiment" in the Bond market. His contrarian expectation of lower bond prices and higher long-term yields certainly fits with the lower US Peso and MORE inflationary environment that a very few of us are expecting.

 

Bond bullishness

Commentary: Bond timers more exuberant than any time since March 2001

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bond-time...-15?siteid=nbkh

[Gold Majestic]

I won't be taken out of longs because I use no leverage anymore. The chart of tangibles versus paper is right on. This is clearly the age of tangible assets. I think you can draw a parallel between the Crash of 1987 to the 2008 move down in Gold from 1033-680. We have a loong ways to go in Gold and Silver. As for the massive short position in COT if this market doesn't correct hard down soon we will see a massive spike north. Just my 2 cents.

 

"As for the massive short position in COT if this market doesn't correct hard down soon we will see a massive spike north."

 

Exactly, my thoughts as well.

[Gold Majestic]

It is easy to leave the market with 10 million ; you only have to enter it with 100 million

 

I hope he owns that foundation if not he is going to be fired the next 15 months If yes he is going to lose a lot of junk

paper . Could this be disinformation at its finest ? Me I believe so

 

Yes agree, the quickest way to make a small fortune? Start with a large one and get short gold!