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#930140 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Greasy grind

Posted by fxfox on 02 April 2018 - 04:16 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

The 200 dma is saved again!


Yep, but as someone very wise once said: The more often sup is being tested, the weaker it becomes. 😉



#930126 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Greasy grind

Posted by fxfox on 02 April 2018 - 02:20 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Hi

Finally the fox arrived at the henhouse again

Good to see Madness, one of the best traders on earth!

Doc,

tremendous work from you! Once again you did beware folks from damage, as in 2000–2003 and 2008/09. I like your new stuff, that suremoney thing. Im completely flat since March.



#930138 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Greasy grind

Posted by fxfox on 02 April 2018 - 04:03 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Todays market close headline:
„Fox enters henhouse too early — Market rebounces“



#930132 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Greasy grind

Posted by fxfox on 02 April 2018 - 03:21 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Uh oh! The bottom must be in! :lol: :lol: :lol:


Yeah, think last time I checked in was in Feb 2016 😁



#930127 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Greasy grind

Posted by fxfox on 02 April 2018 - 02:26 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Somehow I couldnt add smilies to my first post. I think now that works:
😎😁😇✌🏻



#930131 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Greasy grind

Posted by fxfox on 02 April 2018 - 03:19 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Welcome back!
Where you been?

Thank you 🙂

Well, I became a runner at Drexel Burnham then the SEC went after me and well what shoul I say: Here I am 😁



#930384 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Nit-picking nibbles

Posted by fxfox on 10 April 2018 - 03:34 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Rome wasnt built in a day.

Bears have to be patient. Bulls arent a species which give up at the first punch in the face.



#930356 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Nit-picking nibbles

Posted by fxfox on 10 April 2018 - 11:56 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

S&P cash needs a close above 2678 to get anything real going to the upside.

 

Problem for bears: The bottom around the 200 daily SMA looks quite nice for the bulls.




#930385 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Nit-picking nibbles

Posted by fxfox on 10 April 2018 - 03:40 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Price behaviour is really crazy and this since WEEKS. Can not remember having seen such ultra volatile intraday moves for such a long timeframe EVER before. Think Sep 2008 was similar.



#930283 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Listless leaching

Posted by fxfox on 06 April 2018 - 02:55 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

5 day cycle projection 2560-65.

Ya talkin sooo dirty Doc! 😂



#930194 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Itchy indiscretions

Posted by fxfox on 04 April 2018 - 01:17 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Thing is: FED will not postpone the "normalization" progrmme just because the 200 day gets penetrated from above and some AMOK LONGS try to defend it at any cost. :lol: 




#930725 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion- Involuntary interactions

Posted by fxfox on 07 May 2018 - 09:34 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

That means no new cash in the prmiary Dealers accounts? So less chance they can prop up stocks?




#930752 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion- Involuntary interactions

Posted by fxfox on 07 May 2018 - 04:34 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Maybe there is a god.

Yeah, the „Lord of the shorts“ 😂
I really hope that you are right with your analysis. Personally for you cause your doing your job with an extraordinary kind of passion and that alone would deserve to be correct in your analysis.

Thing is: Im not so sure anymore that you will be right. I mean logically you should be. All your arguments and points are very well thought thru. I somehow have the feeling that we miss something. I dont know what it is, but it simply feels as if there is always enough money from somewhere if needed.

I still think the answer has sonethibg to do with the ECB. But I dont know what. Could also be that is some kind of macro-political thing: Arabs, oil, Russia, China... what do I know.

Something simply doesnt fit. Thats all I know.



#930727 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion- Involuntary interactions

Posted by fxfox on 07 May 2018 - 10:15 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

DAX few points away from hitting 13k, already above the 62 fibo. 1200 points above the Feb low now.

 

Eat my Pants.




#930792 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Magnanimous melee

Posted by fxfox on 10 May 2018 - 01:03 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Funny you mention this Jorma and mes been formulating along these lines.

Crazy to think but very plausible I think the US stock market has been deemed a National Security Risk.

I have a strong sense that there is an unlimited fund setup that for National Security concerns is hidden from the public.

This fund is used by a network of banks covert to absorb/buy Stock index and short volatility at critical Market moments.

Doc's analysis is spot on and *if* we do not turn hard to the downside on the avalanche of supply over the next several months time frame then the markets are fixed (hard to believe :) ) and not sure there is any event that would or could trigger a true Bear.

Good points. If there is such a fund or not I don‘t know, but what I‘m 100% sure about: The big CB‘s and other mega financial institutions ( which are combined THE MARKET) have decided in the aftermath of 2008 that something like that should never ever happen again. At any cost. Everything which could bring us near a Lehman type event has to be avoided. There are so many complicated issues, it is impossible to regard them all. Also back in the early 70s the US stock was more or less a domestic stock market. Today it is the playground of GLOBAL available liquidity. So in the 70s there was one tax law which did matter, the US one. Nowadays the market is impacted by dozens of different tax laws. And so on and on.



#930795 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Magnanimous melee

Posted by fxfox on 10 May 2018 - 02:34 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

You mention the playground of GLOBAL available liquidity

and I think of what has happened to Major sports Leagues/teams, but mostly
European Football (soccer) and to another extent, International Football/FIFA/EUFA

Big Teams are being bought as "assets" by big money-Wealth Funds/international multi-billionaires

who then will/can buy everything related (copy rights, real estate, youth players, etc....)

Players are moved around and sold like commodities, at higher and higher prices
to those who can/will pay it.

Yes correct. Good to see in the english Premier Lesgue and even better at Paris St Germain sponsored by a mega billionaire from Qatar wirh record transfer of Neymar. Also good example is China. They founded a new League a few years ago and since then pay asteonomic saleries for old european middle class players. Thats what the NASL did in the 70s, Cosmos were the exception cause they had at least Pele and Beckenbauer, the other teams were packed with second devision players from Italy, Scotland and whatnot. A few years later the NASL went bust. Thing is: China has now become a „player“ in international football. There was no China in the 70s, wherher in stocks, nor in football.



#930798 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Magnanimous melee

Posted by fxfox on 10 May 2018 - 03:38 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Fed counterfeiting = Instant wealth out of thin air for some = Productivity theft for the rest = Financial crime of all time = Public hangings

Will never happen in the US. Remember Hoover sending the mafia in the 30s to kill the union workers. There will never be a strong enough left wing movement in the US. Every time there is a chance true left wingers could really come to power they get destroyed by the propaganda machinery of the ruling elite. To sell leftys to the public as idiots is just part of the game.



#930791 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Magnanimous melee

Posted by fxfox on 10 May 2018 - 12:43 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Valid arguments Jorma. Doc‘s makes perfect sense, but i‘m simply not sure if it is possible to consider every source there possibly is. It would be just to easy to check the Fed‘s or Treasuries website, pull sone data and than make a forecast of comming price action in stocks, which would always be correct.

I‘m sure that those quick and large drops are engineered at will. We got them for example in 11, 14, 16 and this year. Every time all momentum players get kicked out. Basically every trader is a momentum player, cause finally every trading system is based on price monentum. So all those systems get effed up. The goal seems to be to reward only buy and holders. As if the powers that be would say:“This is our playground not yours!“ They simply don‘t wanna habe market timers on their turf.



#930788 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Magnanimous melee

Posted by fxfox on 10 May 2018 - 11:59 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Yes Doc, because it would mean we would start to make higher highs. It would be a total catastrophe.



#930804 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Magnanimous melee

Posted by fxfox on 10 May 2018 - 05:01 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

I love the market will never go down theories. Reminds me of back in the day when I "fired" Windysrf.

Around that time you also fired K-Wave Rider, who was probsbly one of the best traders who have ever appeared at the stool.



#930787 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Magnanimous melee

Posted by fxfox on 10 May 2018 - 11:56 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Let‘s face it: None of Dow, SnP or NDX ever closed below the 200 in 2018, yet folks were foaming at the mouth bearish. Why? Because short term bills rise like berserk since early 16? Yes they do, but look were the major indeces were in early 16 and where they are now and espacially where they were at the end of 17.

Yes it is somewhat sick, but isnt market history full of sick events/times/ocassions? The 80s/90s tech bubble was completely insane for example, yet it lasted much longer than anyone thought.

Haven‘t we said in the past that our final arbiter is price? So why didn‘t we stick to that? Price never gave the go to feriously bearish in 2018. it said:“Caution!“ it didn‘t say:“Sell everything, right here right now“.



#930805 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Magnanimous melee

Posted by fxfox on 10 May 2018 - 05:03 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board


My fellow bears!

Do I look worried?

I'm not worried about anything.

I've seen the promised land. I may not get there with you. But I want you to know tonight, that we, as a people, will get to the promised land!

Jimmy Carter?



#930159 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Hummocky hot bed

Posted by fxfox on 03 April 2018 - 01:43 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Pretty rare for the 200 day to be broken on the first try. Usually takes at least 3 attacks. 
 

Espacially not if it converges with a former important low like the one form early Feb. Thats double sup.

Best setups are those with tripple sup/res. When you have for example a major fibo, a trendline and a important swing low/high at almost the exact same price level, than it is more or less mpossible for price to move beyond that tripple sup/res at the FIRST try,



#930404 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Ornamental ossification

Posted by fxfox on 11 April 2018 - 11:21 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Gold looks promissing. A monthly close above the 2015 swing high and I will go full tits long the Juniors.




#930491 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Soft sizzles

Posted by fxfox on 17 April 2018 - 09:16 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

My ass, another few days like this and we gonna make new ATH's. <_<

 

The whole concept of a new roaring bear is based on the conception that the FED will go tighter and tighter and tighter. What if they dont gonna as tight as one may think? Who would have thaught in - let's say 1993 or 2004 or even 2007 - that there would ever be something like QE?

 

QE was the birth control pill of our time. It wingohockingmoyamensinged up every prognosis. Go and ask a statistician about his population prognosis 20 years into the future BEFORE and AFTER the anti baby pill. So right now we think that the FED and later the ECB will drain and drain and drain... till what? Till S&P is at 975 again? Or would 1600 be enough? Extrapolation doesnt work that well all the time. There are more black swans looming around the Corner as one may think and not every one is in favour of da bears.






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