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#925639 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Sabotaged serenity

Posted by I_Am_Madness on 14 February 2017 - 02:56 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

It's been a while folks.  Hope everyone is doing well. 

I see a nice opportunity here.

 

This latest move off of the TRUMP election low ranks up there with the past post QE grinds.

This is day 3 above the BB.  I expect a quick move back to 2290 on SPX soon.

 

I got short ES at 2332 with a full position with a 10 point stop.  Looking for a move back to 2290.

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  • SPX.jpg



#925640 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Sabotaged serenity

Posted by I_Am_Madness on 14 February 2017 - 03:03 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

This type of move with breath smelling like a rotten rodent is definitely a red flag in my book.

 

No one makes money being confident.  You make money controlling fear.

 

Trade Safe.




#925642 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Sabotaged serenity

Posted by I_Am_Madness on 14 February 2017 - 03:14 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

glad to see you back madness

 

7 months is a long time

 

hope you are well

 

All is well.

Family and business obligations have eaten what little time i have these days. 

 

Just like last year when everyone was selling and calling the end is near, we're going to be asking ourselves...

 

"WHY DIDN'T I SELL!!...."




#925644 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Sabotaged serenity

Posted by I_Am_Madness on 14 February 2017 - 03:44 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Welcome IAM!

 

Thanks!




#925646 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Sabotaged serenity

Posted by I_Am_Madness on 14 February 2017 - 04:12 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

 

I think we'll get a nerve racking correction sometime this year but it will find it's footing for the march to 2800 S&P in 2018....

Attached Thumbnails

  • SPX.jpg



#925649 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Sabotaged serenity

Posted by I_Am_Madness on 14 February 2017 - 04:38 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

How do you get 2800 on SPX?

 

From eg megaphone pattern perspective (650/700 till 1600) we get 2500. From wave perspective we get 2390-2440 etc. 

2400 is now my long term target based on waves. 

 

First wave coming off of the great financial depression lows (666) was about 800 points.

2nd wave coming off of the 2011 low (1100) was about 1,000 points.

3rd wave coming off of the 2016 low (1800) will probably be between 800-1000 points giving me the target of 2800.  That was my projection from the summer of 2016...think that was one of my last post before my little hiatus.   ;)




#925651 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Sabotaged serenity

Posted by I_Am_Madness on 14 February 2017 - 04:45 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

I am still holding a bunch of long energy positions from the lows in 2016.

When the oil sector joins this final wave of madness in 2018, that's the time to unload everything.

 

In the mean time, play the small intermediate trends.




#925652 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Sabotaged serenity

Posted by I_Am_Madness on 14 February 2017 - 04:46 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

How many more waves you got in your sleeves?!  :blink:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:

 

I see 2 completions and a 3rd ongoing coming off of 666.   ;)  




#925656 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Sabotaged serenity

Posted by I_Am_Madness on 14 February 2017 - 04:56 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

You really think from fundamental perspective that there is scope for much higher oil prices? 60-70 on WTI yes but not more due to shale gas /oil revolution. US crude production is now a key thing to watch and # of oil rigs is growing again.

 

From "inflation" or reflation perspective - somewhere near mid 2017 we should be heading again towards deflation..... base effect would gone, same from china perspective. This reflation trade should die this year.

 

US Shale rigs still got plenty of room to go.  It's currently at 800.  The peak was 2,000.  Oil consolidating here in the 50s for some time. 

And in regards to "fundamentals"...i don't know anyone that makes money from it.

 

Ask the folks that were shorting oil in early 2016 based on "fundamentals" how that went.




#925657 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Sabotaged serenity

Posted by I_Am_Madness on 14 February 2017 - 04:57 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Meant I have been very disconnected!

 

Don't we all want to be disconnected sometime with what's going on in this world? :lol:




#925659 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Sabotaged serenity

Posted by I_Am_Madness on 14 February 2017 - 06:36 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Good to see you, Madness. 

 

Well, it's nearly midnight here in Greece. Bedtime for Bozo. 2 more days here in Crete, then on to Palma de Mallorca. 

 

I will really miss the food here. It's insanely good everywhere and unbelievably cheap. It's a shame the Greeks didn't do paying taxes and government finance as well as they have figured out cooking. The country would be rich. 

 

Americans should come here for a few weeks, hang out and spend your US dollars. 

 

Temporary rentals are insanely cheap too. We had penthouses, literally, in both Athens and Chania, Crete. Plenty of space, modern, convenient, and spectacular views. Total rent for the month $1,700. 

 

OK, not penthouses like in Manhattan, but penthouses, nevertheless. Top floor, terrace, view, etc. 

 

Oh boy, living like a king out there and enjoying it!

It's nice to see you kick back and enjoy life over the past few years.  Life is more than just numbers, trend lines and candlesticks.   :D  

 

Stay focus on happiness.




#925669 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Tally-ho tango

Posted by I_Am_Madness on 15 February 2017 - 12:32 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Day 4 above the band.

I've just added another batch of ES short here at 2342 to take my avg to 2336. 

 

Vix up a solid 10%...

 

Trade safe.




#925673 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Tally-ho tango

Posted by I_Am_Madness on 15 February 2017 - 12:41 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Took a day trip to Heraklion today. Breathtaking coastal and mountain scenery

 

Pics?  Please share.

Make us jelly.




#925686 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Tally-ho tango

Posted by I_Am_Madness on 15 February 2017 - 02:39 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Some pretty amazing stuff doc.




#925687 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Tally-ho tango

Posted by I_Am_Madness on 15 February 2017 - 02:46 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Slomo meltup. 

 

I'm reading all these blogs out there and i noticed that trader behaviors never changes.

Some folks fade the move too early and are trapped.

Some folks buy the "it's different this time" BS and goes balls to the walls long.

 

Place your bets.  Day 4 above the BB and rising with the VIX.  




#925689 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Tally-ho tango

Posted by I_Am_Madness on 15 February 2017 - 04:14 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Picked up UVXY at 19.26.




#925692 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Tally-ho tango

Posted by I_Am_Madness on 15 February 2017 - 04:47 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Picked up UVXY at 19.26.

 

Sold at 19.75 for +.49.

Hanging on to a boatload of ES shorts.

 

Trade safe.




#925693 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Tally-ho tango

Posted by I_Am_Madness on 15 February 2017 - 04:54 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

This is as extreme as it gets on the BB for an index.

 

Attached Thumbnails

  • SPX.jpg



#925701 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Unhinged unity

Posted by I_Am_Madness on 16 February 2017 - 10:52 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Let's see if we get that mean reversion trade today.

Back inside the BB.

 

Trade safe.

 

Should had held those UVXY.  It's up another 5%!!!




#925703 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Unhinged unity

Posted by I_Am_Madness on 16 February 2017 - 12:17 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Covered the  ES 2342 short position at 2338 for +4.

Holding the 2332 short which now has an avg of 2336....

 

It ain't going to go straight down...going to play the wiggle a bit.

 

Trade safe.




#925704 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Unhinged unity

Posted by I_Am_Madness on 16 February 2017 - 12:19 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

I think we get a retest of the highs tomorrow or Monday.

 

Looking for a move to 2300 next week.

Attached Thumbnails

  • SPX.jpg



#925705 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Unhinged unity

Posted by I_Am_Madness on 16 February 2017 - 12:39 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

A premium explosion on the options market.




#925706 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Unhinged unity

Posted by I_Am_Madness on 16 February 2017 - 01:42 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Added more ES short at 2344.  Taking avg to 2340.

 

Trade safe.




#925712 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Unhinged unity

Posted by I_Am_Madness on 16 February 2017 - 04:33 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

There were sheep crossing the road.

 

I think it's the same sheep buying today in the stock market.




#925713 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Unhinged unity

Posted by I_Am_Madness on 16 February 2017 - 04:33 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Will always be able to this one at a lower price.  Look for upper 18's shortly....best time to go long for more than a day or so and there have only been a handful over the past many years is when you look at the futures curve on the VIX and it is compressed/coiled with no more than a 5% premium for 3 months or so.  Best time is backwardation.

 

Big move since yesterday afternoon.

Let's see if it pulls back.






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