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#925973 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Whacked waffling

Posted by Jimbo on 22 March 2017 - 03:56 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

WHAT ARE PUERTO RICO BONDS REALLY WORTH

 

Well you could say they are worth the market price 65 cents in the dollar

This is their market reality price.

 

Or you could try and determine the actual real reality price of the bonds i.e the discounted current market value of the actual cash flows that will be recieved in the future on these bonds.

 

But how do you determine this ....its impossible right?????

This information is simply not known.

 

Well the market is estimating these cash flows to come up with the current market prices.

But what if there is a better way....an alternative that is closer to the truth....to reality.

 

I suggest using an estimation of "capacity to pay" as an alternative measure.

 

Under this scenario as evidenced by the financial control boards usefully provided budget

The bonds are worth 30-40 cents on the dollar.

Considerably less than their current market prices.

 

Where is the Puerto RIco Bond Short EFT when you need it???




#925182 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Ubiquitous undulations

Posted by Jimbo on 13 December 2016 - 02:45 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

THE "TRUMP DUMP"

 

Coming to a stock market near you 

 

In January.




#926828 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Passive percolation

Posted by Jimbo on 10 July 2017 - 10:04 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

NEW ETF SUGGESTION

 

The Deep State ETF.

 

This ETF shorts all the stocks in the Trump ETF.




#926011 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Burpy bounce

Posted by Jimbo on 26 March 2017 - 12:20 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

The interesting case of China Huishan Dairy 

 

So the stock falls 85% in one day - $4 billion wiped out.

 

Carson Bloch says he doesnt know why?

 

Well let me offer a possible explanation why???

 

If you look at the stocks chart you can see fairly clearly that some one was supporting the stocks price since September 2015.

 

Some one has been keeping the stock pumped up since then.

 

Obviously they have run out of money to keep the stock pumped and the market reality price SUDDENLY ADJUSTED to the actual real reality price of the stock. 

 

Was the pumper borrowing the money to keep the price pumped and the lender (possibly a chinese bank) said NO MORE!!!

 

Who sold stock between September 2015 and NOW at the high prices????

 

Whoever did was a winner of the Chinese new world.




#926049 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Disjointed dribbling

Posted by Jimbo on 28 March 2017 - 10:13 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

The interesting case of China Huishan Dairy

 

Im sure whoever sold all the stock of this pump and dump scheme since September 2015 will be buying some nice overvalued houses in Vancouver soon.

Far from the gentle and loving reach of the Chinese government.

And those Chinese lenders left holding the bag.

 

Actually it looks like China would be a happy hunting ground for stocks to put into the COYOTE CLIFF ETF.




#926347 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Middling maceration

Posted by Jimbo on 09 May 2017 - 06:25 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

THE PASSIVE FUND MYTH EXPLODED

 

 

Jeffery Gundlach says passive investing does not exist

 

At the Ira Sohn comnference Jeffery said that passive investing does not exist

 

Jeffery is exactly correct.

 

Index investing is not passive investing  - It is active rule based investing

 

The rule to buy stocks going up in value and sells stocks going down is a MOMENTUM rule.

 

No investment by its very nature can be passive

 

Indeed a large number of active fund managers are MORE PASSIVE in their investment strategies than the misnamed passive index funds.

 

And that (along with their higher management fees)  explains to a great extent why the majority of active fund mangers under perfrorm the misnamed passive but in reality more active index fund managers

 

They stay in stocks which are going no where or are going down while the misnmamed passive but in reality active index fund managers are buying the stocks that are going up.

 

I.e  index funds are in reality momentum funds.

 

But their achiles heel is that they ignore value.

 

One day value will catch up with index funds and it wont be pretty.




#926585 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Mouldering midden

Posted by Jimbo on 07 June 2017 - 11:12 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

GM AND THE EINHORN PLAN

 

Now that I think about it the plan was to borrow more and buy back stock while maintianing the dividend.

 

Replacing the dimes in front of the streamroller with silver dollars to juice the stock.

 

Increasing the market reality price of the stock but at the same time decreasing its actual real reality price,

 

This would turn the stock in to a Coyote Cliff ETF candidate,




#924924 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Steady sang-froid

Posted by Jimbo on 13 November 2016 - 02:10 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

FANNIE AND FREDDIE REDUX

 

MY POST from May 2016

 

TWO NEW SUGGESTED ETF'S

 

The Trump ETF (stuffed with Fannie and Fredie call options expiring after November 2016.)

The Clinton ETF (stuffed with Fannie and Freddie put options expiring after November 2016.)

 

I think there will be a quite a few Fannie and Freddie shareholders who will be contributing to the Trump Presidential campaign.

Just a guess - but its probably a very sound investment.

 

 

 

Fannie and Freddie have now passed the presidential test.

Things unfolding as predicted,

Fannie and Freddie have doubled since the election.

They are the "political" stocks par excellence.




#926085 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Greasy gloss

Posted by Jimbo on 02 April 2017 - 07:48 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

THE STRANGE CASE OF DAVID EINHORN AND GM

 

So after my post on GM David Einhorn jumps in and suggest two classes of stock.

 

Numbers suggest the two stocks will increase market cap by 38 Billion.

This will not happen.

Because while the dividend stock will be worth 20 the capital stock will adjust in value downward by a considerable amount.

My calculations suggest the capital pop of the two stocks together will be 20 Billion not 38 billion.

 

WHY

Because this looks like a tax minimisation exercise where the current non tax deductable "dividend" will now be a tax deductable interest payment by the company to the "shareholder/debtholders" of the dividend stock.

Value will be transferred from the taxpayers (tax saving by GM of $1 billion per annum) to the GM capital stock share holders.

The capitalised value of this value transfer is about $20 billlion.

 

Otherwise the idea holds no value to the shareholders.

 

Indeed this is very similar to the common/preference two class share structure that all the 19th century railroads had.

 

This is just a case of more capital structure arbitrage which I have posted on before. Substituting debt for capital to keep the stock pumped up.

 

Indeed GM has added vast amounts of debt over the past few years - now have 90 billion in debt.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

.




#927575 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Squeamish spluttering

Posted by Jimbo on 15 October 2017 - 10:35 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

JIMBO'S STATEMENT OF THE DAY

 

If your going to pick up money in front of the steamroller make sure you pick up double eagles instead of dimes.




#927164 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Weakening windlass

Posted by Jimbo on 20 August 2017 - 02:18 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

INTRODUCING THE MUNICIPAL SINGLE STATE SHORT ETF

 

Since we have single state municipal bond funds why not have single state municipal bond short ETF's

i.e

The Puerto Rico Bond short ETF

The Illinois Bond short ETF

The Conneticut Bond short ETF

 

I think this will be a growing theme from now on.




#925259 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Determined defrosting

Posted by Jimbo on 21 December 2016 - 02:48 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

CANT WAIT FOR THE TRUMP DUMPO

 

Can smell it comng now!!!!!!

 

This Trump rally is actually the perfect set up for the dumperama.

 

The normal santa rally has been deceptively and deceitfully labelled a Trump rally to give it extra strength and power.

 

Thankyou useful media idiots/shills you have done yourself proud.

 

Sucking in the suckers - weak hands

 

And setting up the perfect "Set Up"  for a good Trump dump in January.

 

Merry xmas everyone




#926630 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Rainbow rambling

Posted by Jimbo on 13 June 2017 - 08:19 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

ETF SUGGESTION OF THE DAY

 

THE AMAZON RETAILER SHORT ETF.

 

Full of all the retailers Amazon is crushing right now.

 

Or perhaps a different name - something more sexy for marketing purposes.

 

How about the Amazon Anaconda ETF,




#927374 World Stock Markets Trading Discussions - Abstemious acquisitions

Posted by Jimbo on 19 September 2017 - 09:53 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

TREASURIES - THE GIFT THAT KEEPS ON GIVING

 

No not a GIFT to the bond holder - Its a GIFT to the BORROWER the US Government!!!!!!!!!!!

 

At 2% interest with 2% inflation and 0.5 tax you are giving away 5% of you capital whenever you buy a new 10 year bond.

 

And yet people are still buying them all the time!!!!!

 

Bond need to pay 3% to compensate for inflation and tax and that is with a NIL return for the time value of money,

 

Add in a decent 3% return for the time value of money and 10 year bonds should be returning 6%.




#926713 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Creeping catalepsy

Posted by Jimbo on 25 June 2017 - 08:13 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

DEEP STATE MATHEMATICS FOR BEGINNERS

(or why politics matters to stocks)

 

 

Trump Vs Deep State

 

Equals

 

Recap and Release Vs no recap and release

 

Equals

 

Very significant Fannie and Freddie share price increases Vs Worthless Fannie and Freddie shares




#926864 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Sanitized salute

Posted by Jimbo on 13 July 2017 - 08:14 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

ICELAND IS BOOMING

 

So Iceland lets all its banks go broke

So I presume the countiy should be in a permanent economic depresion

But the OECD says the economy is boominjg growth is 7% the fastest  growing economy of all OECD economies!!! 

Thats what happens when you get a decent debt reset,

 

 

Unlike say Grreece

 

No debt reswt there.

It saved its banks and is in a permanent depression.

 

Iceland is having the tourism boom greece should have had,




#925902 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Opaque oscillations

Posted by Jimbo on 10 March 2017 - 11:14 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

JIMBO AWARD FOR CAPITAL RAISING
 

Goes to Deutche Bank

 

It will have raised 30 Billion euro in new capital since 2010 but only has a market capitalisation of 26 billion. 

 

Thats capital destruction of a fairly high order. 




#925951 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Tailored tap-dance

Posted by Jimbo on 19 March 2017 - 01:23 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

WHAT IS SEEN AND WHAT IS UNSEEN

 

GM looks awfully cheap at 6 times eanings and 5% dividend yield.

 

Very tempting - Until you see the unseen and hear the two words "PENSION DEFICIT" for whom the stock bells toll.

 

GM has 21 BILLION in unfunded pension liabilities.

 

But it could be even worse. What if the actuarial assumptions under which the current deficit is calculated are too generous and the earnings rate of the pensions funds in the future are lower than the current actuary determined earnings rates.

 

What if the pension deficits in time exceed the current market cap of GM.

 

The generous dividend feels very much like picking up pennies (or is that dimes?) in front of the steam roller.




#924966 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Weighty wallowing

Posted by Jimbo on 17 November 2016 - 09:09 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

THE DEUTSCHE BANK NUMBERS

 

Deutsche bank revenues have fallen by $11 Billion (NIRP Anyone) during the last 3 years but they have only cut operating costs by $3.5 Billion.

 

Thats $7.5 billion of free cash flow that has disappeared.

 

And  the stock followed.




#926287 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Evaporating expectations

Posted by Jimbo on 28 April 2017 - 04:00 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

CANADIAN HOME LENDERS

 

Where is the Canadian home lender short ETF when you need it.




#926054 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Emaciated enzymes

Posted by Jimbo on 28 March 2017 - 10:27 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

NO LOVE IN THE AGE OF OLOV

 

The problem for active fund managers is that all their assets are over leveraged and over valued (OLOV).

For the 2/20 model this means they now make make all their money from the 2 and not the 20.

 

This means they still have nice income but also have lots of disgruntled investors.

This then means the income form the 2 starts to shrink as well as funds are pulled out by investors.

 

So then the hedge funds come back with 1 and 10 to try and keep the funds in the fund.

 

Their entire strategies become focused on retaining funds, and if they fail they close down

 

Because 1 is better than 0 even if its not 2.




#926928 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Boxy barricades

Posted by Jimbo on 22 July 2017 - 06:54 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

FANNIE MAE STOCK as A Politicical INDICATOR

 

As I have previously stated you can use the stock price of FANNIE MAE as a fairly good indicator of the Trump Vs Deep State battle.

 

Its been downhill since the election

 

Was November 2016 PEAK TRUMP???




#926929 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Boxy barricades

Posted by Jimbo on 22 July 2017 - 06:59 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

INTRODUCING A NEW ETF

 

First I introduced the Trump ETF

 

Then I introduced the Deep State ETF

 

Now I Introduce the Smart Trump/Deep State Arbitrage ETF

 

This ETF automatically arbitrages (by moving capital) between the Deep State and Trump ETF's depending on whether the news is positive or negative for Trump in any one week.




#926132 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Murky miasma

Posted by Jimbo on 09 April 2017 - 07:42 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

GM - A COYOTE CLIFF CANDIDATE

 

GM has piled on debt over the last few years

Now 90 Billion.

Also has 21 Billion pension deficit - but with a realsitic earnings rate on the fund it could really be double that - more like 40 Billion.

deficit.

 

Also I note at Yahoo finance that their interest bill is only $571 million in 2016

On a 90 billion debt it should be much larger than that????.




#925063 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Indolent involvement

Posted by Jimbo on 30 November 2016 - 02:22 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

ANOTHER FALSE NARRATIVE EXPLODES

 

So all the headlines said the market was supposed to crash if Trump got elected

 

Instead the market makes new highs

 

The Trump crash is replaced by the Trump rally.

 

But what if the Trump rally is itself a false narrative ripe for destruction????

 

THE REAL NARRATIVE

 

Traders label the normal and predictable Santa Rally as the Trump rally to give it more credibility and authenticity.

 

To be followed by the o so predictable new year dump.

 

(The Trump Dump anyone???)

 

"plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose"






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