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#928782 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Inevitable inertia

Posted by Jimbo on 31 January 2018 - 10:00 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

RE BITCOIN

 

This is what happens after a blow of top.

 

Not pretty not pretty at all.

 

I think bonds and stocks may follow in 2018.

 

Too much overvaluation and no returns.

 

2018 - the year of downside protection




#930721 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion- Involuntary interactions

Posted by Jimbo on 07 May 2018 - 04:08 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

BERKSHIRE _HATHAWAY - REVERSION TO UNDER THE MEAN

 

When Berkshire was founded way back when tis first ten years of average return was 19

 

Much greater that the S and P return of 2 per cent.

 

Not bad.at all - great out perfromance

 

Unfortunately its last ten years of returns have been 9.

 

Which is less than the 10 per cent for the Sand P

 

Thats right you would have been better of investing your money in an S and P index fund.




#930783 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Magnanimous melee

Posted by Jimbo on 10 May 2018 - 07:22 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

THE LONG SLOW CAPITAL BURN

 

Buy Swisis ten year bonds and give 5% of your capital away over the ten year period..

 

Just owning bonds is giving away your money!!!!

 

Without higher rates????.

 

Bonds are trading below the "Capital Neutrality " level.

 

Prices need to fall further.




#928570 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Aggrieved attrition

Posted by Jimbo on 20 January 2018 - 09:48 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

THE CAPE DOES NOT LIE

 

CAPE of 33 for the S&P

 

Australia much cheaper with CAPE of 18.

 

I am not optimistic for US stocks in 2018,

 

Still optimistic for Australian Stocks.

 

 

The whole tax cut and repatriation of funds for stock buybacks has such a last gasp feel to it. 




#929317 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Affable ambling

Posted by Jimbo on 15 February 2018 - 11:04 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

WARREN B selling out of IBM

 

It took Warren Buffet a while to realise that IBM is history.

 

And IBM is history!!!




#929318 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Affable ambling

Posted by Jimbo on 15 February 2018 - 11:13 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

THE GOVERNMENT PROSECUTION ETF

 

I note that after the Government let up on its regulatory and fines avalanche on Citi Group and Bank of America their share prices doubled in fairly quick order.

 

Will the same happen with Wells Fargo???? which is currently being given the same treatment.

 

Highly probable.

 

There should be an ETF that takes advantage by investing in these sought of companies that are being subjected to the full force of the tender regulatory attentions of the Government!!!!

 

It of course needs a catchy name for marketing purposes.

 

Let me see.....The Tom and Jerry ETF.???? ........the Regulatory Waterboarding ETF?????

 

How about the TORQUEMADA ETF!!!!




#929458 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Honeyed hyperbole

Posted by Jimbo on 27 February 2018 - 08:35 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

AMERICAS TRULY WONDERFUL MORTGAGE MARKET

 

In the USA of A Uncle Sam dresses up as Santa Claus every day of the week for the American Home Buyer

 

He takes away all the risk, hurt and pain with wonderful 30 Year fixed rate mortgages

 

and no need for a deposit....97% financing!!!!!!! .

 

However the risk is not destroyed.....no no no.... it is merely transferred to a BAG HOLDER

 

Who it this BAG HOLDER you might ask????

 

Well through the magic of Freddie and Fannie its the US Taxpayer

 

(Well really right now the holder of US treasuries given the Governments taste for deficit financing).

 

What could go possibly Wrong?????

 

Subprime 2.0 perhaps????

 

Its gets even better

 

Because the banks got so burned in subprime 1.0 they are letting the non bank lenders with no capital take on the task of originating and servicing the loans

 

Isn't  that nice of them

 

No more nasty fines from the government or write downs if all the loans go suddenly south.

 

Well except for the NBL's that is,

 

But by then the Government will just be an unsecured creditor in the Bankruptcy courts.




#930567 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Vapid visuals

Posted by Jimbo on 20 April 2018 - 03:11 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

FANNIE AND SUBPRIME 2.0

 

Fannie now allows lenders to pay for closing costs

 

Cant wait for the 120% housing loan so "Owners" (thats a joke word) can pay off credit card and car loan debts.

 

After all following the logic to its ultimate conclusion why not put the car and credit card loans on the tab, back them with a government guarantee and securatise them as well.

 

Thats the next logical step. 




#926828 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Passive percolation

Posted by Jimbo on 10 July 2017 - 10:04 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

NEW ETF SUGGESTION

 

The Deep State ETF.

 

This ETF shorts all the stocks in the Trump ETF.




#928225 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Fitful fidgeting

Posted by Jimbo on 22 December 2017 - 10:41 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

THE BIG BOND FREE LUNCH 

 

Who says there are no free lunches in financial markets

 

There are plenty of them!!!!!  - Most provided by Governments

 

Take Freddie and Fannie paper

 

Pays almost 1% over treasuries

 

And all guaranteed (OK implied guarantee ) by the US government,

 

All so the us homeowner can get cheap 30 year funding.

 

Why own treasuries when you can own agency paper which is the same thing and pays a higher rate!!!!




#926585 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Mouldering midden

Posted by Jimbo on 07 June 2017 - 11:12 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

GM AND THE EINHORN PLAN

 

Now that I think about it the plan was to borrow more and buy back stock while maintianing the dividend.

 

Replacing the dimes in front of the streamroller with silver dollars to juice the stock.

 

Increasing the market reality price of the stock but at the same time decreasing its actual real reality price,

 

This would turn the stock in to a Coyote Cliff ETF candidate,




#927575 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Squeamish spluttering

Posted by Jimbo on 15 October 2017 - 10:35 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

JIMBO'S STATEMENT OF THE DAY

 

If your going to pick up money in front of the steamroller make sure you pick up double eagles instead of dimes.




#926630 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Rainbow rambling

Posted by Jimbo on 13 June 2017 - 08:19 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

ETF SUGGESTION OF THE DAY

 

THE AMAZON RETAILER SHORT ETF.

 

Full of all the retailers Amazon is crushing right now.

 

Or perhaps a different name - something more sexy for marketing purposes.

 

How about the Amazon Anaconda ETF,




#927164 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Weakening windlass

Posted by Jimbo on 20 August 2017 - 02:18 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

INTRODUCING THE MUNICIPAL SINGLE STATE SHORT ETF

 

Since we have single state municipal bond funds why not have single state municipal bond short ETF's

i.e

The Puerto Rico Bond short ETF

The Illinois Bond short ETF

The Conneticut Bond short ETF

 

I think this will be a growing theme from now on.




#927374 World Stock Markets Trading Discussions - Abstemious acquisitions

Posted by Jimbo on 19 September 2017 - 09:53 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

TREASURIES - THE GIFT THAT KEEPS ON GIVING

 

No not a GIFT to the bond holder - Its a GIFT to the BORROWER the US Government!!!!!!!!!!!

 

At 2% interest with 2% inflation and 0.5 tax you are giving away 5% of you capital whenever you buy a new 10 year bond.

 

And yet people are still buying them all the time!!!!!

 

Bond need to pay 3% to compensate for inflation and tax and that is with a NIL return for the time value of money,

 

Add in a decent 3% return for the time value of money and 10 year bonds should be returning 6%.




#926713 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Creeping catalepsy

Posted by Jimbo on 25 June 2017 - 08:13 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

DEEP STATE MATHEMATICS FOR BEGINNERS

(or why politics matters to stocks)

 

 

Trump Vs Deep State

 

Equals

 

Recap and Release Vs no recap and release

 

Equals

 

Very significant Fannie and Freddie share price increases Vs Worthless Fannie and Freddie shares




#927877 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Wilted wishes

Posted by Jimbo on 15 November 2017 - 08:30 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

AMAZING FACTIOD OF THE DAY

 

That people pay money for TESLA stock

 

Just amazing




#926864 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Sanitized salute

Posted by Jimbo on 13 July 2017 - 08:14 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

ICELAND IS BOOMING

 

So Iceland lets all its banks go broke

So I presume the countiy should be in a permanent economic depresion

But the OECD says the economy is boominjg growth is 7% the fastest  growing economy of all OECD economies!!! 

Thats what happens when you get a decent debt reset,

 

 

Unlike say Grreece

 

No debt reswt there.

It saved its banks and is in a permanent depression.

 

Iceland is having the tourism boom greece should have had,




#926928 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Boxy barricades

Posted by Jimbo on 22 July 2017 - 06:54 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

FANNIE MAE STOCK as A Politicical INDICATOR

 

As I have previously stated you can use the stock price of FANNIE MAE as a fairly good indicator of the Trump Vs Deep State battle.

 

Its been downhill since the election

 

Was November 2016 PEAK TRUMP???




#926929 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Boxy barricades

Posted by Jimbo on 22 July 2017 - 06:59 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

INTRODUCING A NEW ETF

 

First I introduced the Trump ETF

 

Then I introduced the Deep State ETF

 

Now I Introduce the Smart Trump/Deep State Arbitrage ETF

 

This ETF automatically arbitrages (by moving capital) between the Deep State and Trump ETF's depending on whether the news is positive or negative for Trump in any one week.




#926689 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Atrophied acquisitions

Posted by Jimbo on 21 June 2017 - 10:51 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

FREDDIE, FANNIE AND THE DEEP STATE

 

is the Deep State a recap and release sort of guy????

 

I think not,

 

Is President Trump - I still think so

 

So the deep state vs the president is really recap and release vs status quo.

 

I notice that Bill Ackman has loaded up on Fannie and Freddie

 

Late to the party as always

 

He stayed too long at the Valeant Party = stayed long after it had ended  and lost $4 billion.

 

The rule of parties states that you arive early and you depart early!!!!!

 

Sober and still in control of your faculties and capital.,

 

The way to have played Fannie and Freddie was to have loaded up on options in May 2016 and sold when Trump got elected

 

Because the Deep State counter attack could well win!!!

 

In which case Freddie and Fannie stock is worthless.

 

Indeed the Fannie and Freddie stock price is a good way of keeping the score between Trump and the Deep State.

 

If Bill wants a pharma stock try TEVA.






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