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#929856 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Windblown wishes

Posted by Morpheus on 19 March 2018 - 12:17 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

So far looks like this could be the real deal, short using DOG executed at 24,790 on Dow!  Stop the same.




#929936 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Billowy bravado

Posted by Morpheus on 22 March 2018 - 02:11 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Biotechs in a choppy B-wave channel working upwards for 2 years after a parabolic 5 wave bull market exhausted and the first bear market wave A going down into the wave 4 price area and testing the exact 50% retracement level.  Very B-wave like action here, choppy and channeling.  Before the next big wave down © this needs to go back to the bottom of the channel.  Looks like already they may be on their way. Worth keeping an eye on that lower channel trend line and how the other indices patterns are positioned! 

Attached Thumbnails

  • IBB3.21.18A.jpg



#930280 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Listless leaching

Posted by Morpheus on 06 April 2018 - 02:27 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Biotechs have been consolidating below their 200DMA already and it looks like we are finally going to leave behind that support band and the 3 year B-wave channel up.  Still leading the Dow,NDX.SP today in loss. Watching closely for them to help guide the bear downward!  Been playing BIS today as usual.

Attached Thumbnails

  • IBB4.6.18B.jpg



#928784 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Inevitable inertia

Posted by Morpheus on 31 January 2018 - 11:03 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Not ready to fill these gaps yet?

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  • SPXgaps1.31.18.jpg



#929800 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Vestigal verdigris

Posted by Morpheus on 16 March 2018 - 10:46 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Now if that ain't one big beautiful coil !!  Bets on which way it breaks??

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  • Dowcoil2.16.18.jpg



#929916 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Aimless abstraction

Posted by Morpheus on 21 March 2018 - 12:42 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Failure to launch!  Stopped out even at Dow 24,780.  Appears wave d extended itself and dropped the lower trendline of the triangle so it is not as pretty but it still is intact for a future potential pattern trade.  I didn't like that the original e-wave was so short in time and price.  E-waves typically are long, choppy and often consolidate pricewise in the half of the triangle they are going to eventually break through.  Most of the other indices were not positioned in patterns with important support to break through so I am not surprised by this outcome. It was a low risk short set up.  I think this market has a more work to do before any big move. I see corrective patterns still unfolding so there is good reason to believe we are in topping process that will eventually break down.  Good Luck Out there.  Madness you continue to amaze me with your trading!  Now out to go bicycling and drone flying!!

Attached Thumbnails

  • Dow3.21.18A.jpg



#929803 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Vestigal verdigris

Posted by Morpheus on 16 March 2018 - 12:02 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Really pouring over the charts today.  Energy sector looks sickly, XOM ready to get dumped like Tillerson.  The momo stocks FANG,NDX,COMP,BTK, etc at marginal new highs but everything else is well below early Feb highs including BKX as well as most foreign markets.  I am with Doc, this looks like it is the grand finale luring in the last of the suckers.  Watching the VIX dry up and how the DOW pattern unfolds on smaller timeframes at the end of this thing and expect boring week coming up, not quite ripe. Should offer very juicy trading when it does make the break! 

Attached Thumbnails

  • VIX2.16.18.jpg



#929816 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Vestigal verdigris

Posted by Morpheus on 16 March 2018 - 06:13 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

We could see the start of a substantial sell off Monday, probably.  (one slightly more degree of positive than maybe) :lol:

I can't help but notice the Dow is a textbook Elliott contracting triangle  The common move out is equal to the base (wave a ) and that would take us right to the upper channel trendline of the entire bull market from 2009 on monthly semi-log chart.  A non-limiting feature in this triangle indicates it has a good likelihood of going further. Each wave is in precise Fibonacci ratio to the base wave a:  b=.68a, c=.50a d=.38a.  You don't see them with such perfect fractal symmetry very often. The bad news is with a triangle in this position the complete move down can only be seen as much larger degree A, not as bearish if it were a Wave 3 with massive impulsive structure.  But first things first.  I will be using that bottom trendline of the triangle to trigger a short position trade.  I am comfortably retired and not privy to daytrading especially when the weather is nice out but sometimes I like to play the biotechs intraday when the market has got a solid intermediate trend going.  Good luck trading everyone.  I am becoming much more concerned about the escalating chaos within our White House than the markets.  I have never witnessed anything like this in my lifetime and I have lived through an awful lot of shit!

Attached Thumbnails

  • DowcoilB.2.16.18.jpg



#928454 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Unfettered uniformity

Posted by Morpheus on 16 January 2018 - 11:13 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Dow monthly...look at that Bollinger Band blow out compared to the last two tops :blink:  Just a typical mean reversion takes us back to @ 21,000!

Attached Thumbnails

  • DOWmonthly1.16.18.jpg



#927710 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Fussy fiddling

Posted by Morpheus on 29 October 2017 - 10:46 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

I don't really see the trend slowing on either weekly log charts of SP and Dow, most IT oscillators I use are overbought but not weakening or diverging.  Dow is at top of its uptrend channel however and SP in the middle.  Since the early '16 low you probably know a lot of the measures of market internals have been lousy and getting much worse along with record low volatility and record highs in sentiment indicators.  To me this feels a lot like '99 again, we have had another lengthy expansion like under Clinton, it just didn't feel quite the same since we had to climb out of such a big hole but Trumptimism's irrational exhuberance is now on full display!   

Attached Thumbnails

  • DJIlog10.28.17.jpg
  • SPXlog10.28.2017.jpg



#927707 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Fussy fiddling

Posted by Morpheus on 28 October 2017 - 01:08 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

CAT is in Category 2

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  • CAT10.27.2017.jpg
  • MMM10.27.2017.jpg
  • WMT10.28.2017.jpg
  • BA10.28.2017.jpg



#927708 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Fussy fiddling

Posted by Morpheus on 28 October 2017 - 01:20 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

There is a 5-wave bearish wedge in SP since 2009 low that is completing.   A final blow off vertically out of the wedge is not uncommon, we could see something pretty spectacular here by years end, likely a success in tax reform would be attributed as the cause.  If this plays out EW says a return to the wedge origin occurs rapidly meaning a "Super crash"  starting in 2018 

Attached Thumbnails

  • SPX10.28.17Wedge.jpg



#927706 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Fussy fiddling

Posted by Morpheus on 28 October 2017 - 12:47 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Looking at the Dow components I see most in two categories:

 

1) Since 2009 low have formed steady parabolic uptrends :MMM, HD,MSFT,UNH,V,JNJ, JPM   [GS, IBM,NKE along with the    biotechs also but they broke down in 2015] 

2) Late Rally Gang with sloppy uptrends since 2009 but in early 2016 took off (many in smaller parabolas now):AXP, APPL,CAT,CSCO,DWDP,MCD,PG, WMT,CHV

 

Here are 3 charts: MSFT and UNH from group 1  along with the BTK biotech parabola that busted in 2015, now wedging up to a second TOP.  My point is these parabolic trends always end as they approach a vertical trajectory with a  distinct blow off which is what I believe we are experiencing now.

Attached Thumbnails

  • MSFT10.28.17.jpg
  • UNH10.28.17.jpg
  • BTK10.28.17.jpg
  • V10.28.2017.jpg



#929999 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Clinical collapse

Posted by Morpheus on 23 March 2018 - 03:40 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Tightened up stop  I'm happy with it right here for my first scalp of the year! 




#930003 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Clinical collapse

Posted by Morpheus on 23 March 2018 - 04:10 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

IBB is pretty much tracking QQQ so far too, but when we get to the supercrash, and the biotechs break the bottom of that gigantic channel up since 2015 I expect them to outperform as they did in wave A down!  I wish things were always as clean and easy as this trendline support break on IBB today!

Attached Thumbnails

  • BIS3.23.18.jpg



#929996 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Clinical collapse

Posted by Morpheus on 23 March 2018 - 02:54 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Shorted using BIS, had one big consolidation since open and broke down!

 BIS = 2X inverse IBB




#929991 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Clinical collapse

Posted by Morpheus on 23 March 2018 - 11:17 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

I missed the train yesterday, helping my brother with some projects. Here is a chart of WTIC to ponder while we wait to see which way this breaks today.  The 14-16 collapse, a nice 5 wave down has retraced to .50 with an A-B-C up. So far it is holding here.  The XLE has diverged recently from following crude closely and has plummeted the past few weeks, it was one of the bigger losers yesterday.   

Attached Thumbnails

  • WTIC3.20.2018A.jpg



#929994 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Clinical collapse

Posted by Morpheus on 23 March 2018 - 01:13 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Unfortunately I can't get the quote function to work on my system and that is why you don't see me use it.  Anyhow glad I am of some use here zero-v!   Jorma my sister is remodeling her bathroom and she is installing a toilet from Kohler that indeed is wifi connected, don't know if apple has an i-Crap yet  :lol: 




#930057 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Fragile friction

Posted by Morpheus on 28 March 2018 - 03:28 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Stopped me out! Off to a bike ride with my GF at 2:30 anyhow. Boring day, hopefully we see those lows go tomorrow!

See ya all tomorrow




#930053 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Fragile friction

Posted by Morpheus on 28 March 2018 - 03:05 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Shorted the triangle break here, see what happens...

Attached Thumbnails

  • SPX3.28.18.jpg



#927049 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Natty notions

Posted by Morpheus on 07 August 2017 - 10:37 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Hussman  has great article today on the pervasive signs of this bubble.  How much longer can the Fed continue this madness?  They are running out of excuses.

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  • SPpricetgorevenuebubble8.7.2017a.png



#927822 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Reckless review

Posted by Morpheus on 09 November 2017 - 12:12 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Biotech Index testing some significant support here. In past a pretty good early indicator of risk on/risk off transitions.  They were the first thing to break down when the 2012-2015 wave up ended.  Worth keeping an eye on.

Attached Thumbnails

  • BTK11.9.171.jpg



#927743 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Impassive infiltration

Posted by Morpheus on 01 November 2017 - 05:27 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Bubble Chart of the day

Attached Thumbnails

  • Bitcoin11.1.2017.jpg





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