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#927710 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Fussy fiddling

Posted by Morpheus on 29 October 2017 - 10:46 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

I don't really see the trend slowing on either weekly log charts of SP and Dow, most IT oscillators I use are overbought but not weakening or diverging.  Dow is at top of its uptrend channel however and SP in the middle.  Since the early '16 low you probably know a lot of the measures of market internals have been lousy and getting much worse along with record low volatility and record highs in sentiment indicators.  To me this feels a lot like '99 again, we have had another lengthy expansion like under Clinton, it just didn't feel quite the same since we had to climb out of such a big hole but Trumptimism's irrational exhuberance is now on full display!   

Attached Thumbnails

  • DJIlog10.28.17.jpg
  • SPXlog10.28.2017.jpg



#927708 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Fussy fiddling

Posted by Morpheus on 28 October 2017 - 01:20 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

There is a 5-wave bearish wedge in SP since 2009 low that is completing.   A final blow off vertically out of the wedge is not uncommon, we could see something pretty spectacular here by years end, likely a success in tax reform would be attributed as the cause.  If this plays out EW says a return to the wedge origin occurs rapidly meaning a "Super crash"  starting in 2018 

Attached Thumbnails

  • SPX10.28.17Wedge.jpg



#927707 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Fussy fiddling

Posted by Morpheus on 28 October 2017 - 01:08 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

CAT is in Category 2

Attached Thumbnails

  • CAT10.27.2017.jpg
  • MMM10.27.2017.jpg
  • WMT10.28.2017.jpg
  • BA10.28.2017.jpg



#927706 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Fussy fiddling

Posted by Morpheus on 28 October 2017 - 12:47 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Looking at the Dow components I see most in two categories:

 

1) Since 2009 low have formed steady parabolic uptrends :MMM, HD,MSFT,UNH,V,JNJ, JPM   [GS, IBM,NKE along with the    biotechs also but they broke down in 2015] 

2) Late Rally Gang with sloppy uptrends since 2009 but in early 2016 took off (many in smaller parabolas now):AXP, APPL,CAT,CSCO,DWDP,MCD,PG, WMT,CHV

 

Here are 3 charts: MSFT and UNH from group 1  along with the BTK biotech parabola that busted in 2015, now wedging up to a second TOP.  My point is these parabolic trends always end as they approach a vertical trajectory with a  distinct blow off which is what I believe we are experiencing now.

Attached Thumbnails

  • MSFT10.28.17.jpg
  • UNH10.28.17.jpg
  • BTK10.28.17.jpg
  • V10.28.2017.jpg



#925194 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Ubiquitous undulations

Posted by Morpheus on 13 December 2016 - 04:33 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Blown through top Bolli Band on 20,50, 200 daily & 20,50 weekly getting close to 200 weekly BB @ 2306. Long SPY since Nov 14 but on first daily reversal going to sell half!

Seems almost unanimous out there the expectation is for this to continue into Jan,makes me nervous? 

Attached Thumbnails

  • SPWeeklyBB12.13.2016.jpg



#927049 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Natty notions

Posted by Morpheus on 07 August 2017 - 10:37 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Hussman  has great article today on the pervasive signs of this bubble.  How much longer can the Fed continue this madness?  They are running out of excuses.

Attached Thumbnails

  • SPpricetgorevenuebubble8.7.2017a.png



#927822 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Reckless review

Posted by Morpheus on 09 November 2017 - 12:12 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Biotech Index testing some significant support here. In past a pretty good early indicator of risk on/risk off transitions.  They were the first thing to break down when the 2012-2015 wave up ended.  Worth keeping an eye on.

Attached Thumbnails

  • BTK11.9.171.jpg



#927743 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Impassive infiltration

Posted by Morpheus on 01 November 2017 - 05:27 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Bubble Chart of the day

Attached Thumbnails

  • Bitcoin11.1.2017.jpg





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