There have been 69 items by fxfox (Search limited from 20-June 17)
Will there be s time when you will give in? Will you throw the towel? I mean, when liqui dries up I wouldnt expect NDX and Small Caps to make new ATH‘s, espacially not them. So when available liqui goes down, that should hurt riskier assets more. Seems like there is still enough liqui available. That is not exactly that what I expected when I thought back in Feb about June...
Around that time you also fired K-Wave Rider, who was probsbly one of the best traders who have ever appeared at the stool.
Will never happen in the US. Remember Hoover sending the mafia in the 30s to kill the union workers. There will never be a strong enough left wing movement in the US. Every time there is a chance true left wingers could really come to power they get destroyed by the propaganda machinery of the ruling elite. To sell leftys to the public as idiots is just part of the game.
Yes correct. Good to see in the english Premier Lesgue and even better at Paris St Germain sponsored by a mega billionaire from Qatar wirh record transfer of Neymar. Also good example is China. They founded a new League a few years ago and since then pay asteonomic saleries for old european middle class players. Thats what the NASL did in the 70s, Cosmos were the exception cause they had at least Pele and Beckenbauer, the other teams were packed with second devision players from Italy, Scotland and whatnot. A few years later the NASL went bust. Thing is: China has now become a „player“ in international football. There was no China in the 70s, wherher in stocks, nor in football.
Good points. If there is such a fund or not I don‘t know, but what I‘m 100% sure about: The big CB‘s and other mega financial institutions ( which are combined THE MARKET) have decided in the aftermath of 2008 that something like that should never ever happen again. At any cost. Everything which could bring us near a Lehman type event has to be avoided. There are so many complicated issues, it is impossible to regard them all. Also back in the early 70s the US stock was more or less a domestic stock market. Today it is the playground of GLOBAL available liquidity. So in the 70s there was one tax law which did matter, the US one. Nowadays the market is impacted by dozens of different tax laws. And so on and on.
Valid arguments Jorma. Doc‘s makes perfect sense, but i‘m simply not sure if it is possible to consider every source there possibly is. It would be just to easy to check the Fed‘s or Treasuries website, pull sone data and than make a forecast of comming price action in stocks, which would always be correct.
I‘m sure that those quick and large drops are engineered at will. We got them for example in 11, 14, 16 and this year. Every time all momentum players get kicked out. Basically every trader is a momentum player, cause finally every trading system is based on price monentum. So all those systems get effed up. The goal seems to be to reward only buy and holders. As if the powers that be would say:“This is our playground not yours!“ They simply don‘t wanna habe market timers on their turf.
Let‘s face it: None of Dow, SnP or NDX ever closed below the 200 in 2018, yet folks were foaming at the mouth bearish. Why? Because short term bills rise like berserk since early 16? Yes they do, but look were the major indeces were in early 16 and where they are now and espacially where they were at the end of 17.
Yes it is somewhat sick, but isnt market history full of sick events/times/ocassions? The 80s/90s tech bubble was completely insane for example, yet it lasted much longer than anyone thought.
Haven‘t we said in the past that our final arbiter is price? So why didn‘t we stick to that? Price never gave the go to feriously bearish in 2018. it said:“Caution!“ it didn‘t say:“Sell everything, right here right now“.
Can‘t let market drop substantially on the day Trump declares retreat from Iran nuclear treaty. Have to create warm and fuzzy feeling.
Yeah, the „Lord of the shorts“ 😂
I really hope that you are right with your analysis. Personally for you cause your doing your job with an extraordinary kind of passion and that alone would deserve to be correct in your analysis.
Thing is: Im not so sure anymore that you will be right. I mean logically you should be. All your arguments and points are very well thought thru. I somehow have the feeling that we miss something. I dont know what it is, but it simply feels as if there is always enough money from somewhere if needed.
I still think the answer has sonethibg to do with the ECB. But I dont know what. Could also be that is some kind of macro-political thing: Arabs, oil, Russia, China... what do I know.
Something simply doesnt fit. Thats all I know.
Yep. Point is: Nobody knows when FED will stop reducing its balance sheet. Bears also not. If they are hardliners, which we do not know, than they would have to accept that cult stocks die. Like Tesla for the example, which is a shit company with completely ridicoulus vehicles. In every bear the cult dies. Will the FED stand the public pressure and let the cult die?
Lets face it: In Germany nobody talks about stocks. Never since the 2009 bottom started something like a broad mania, although german tech stocks went up 5 times or so.
Why should this bull pop? We are not even close to mania type nain street reactions. Last time I was asked about stocks from a taxi driver or a barbor was in early 2000...
A bubble is a bubble when the little man comes to the stock market. Happened last time in 2000. How can a 9 year bull, which of course was not a 9 year bull, pop, if J6P never got sucked in?
NFP worse than expected. Sir Prize. So what with the bear market now? Wasn't it anticipated that data would be good and therefore FED would be forced to raise even more? So now no need to raise? Who feeds the bear instead?
DAX already mmore than 1000 points above the Feb low.... Nikkei dancing to the tune "Mr Lover, Lover... Mr. Boombastic..."
Well, at least todays candle isnt as big as the one in early Feb 😂
Lower highs and higher lows... soon there will be a bomb da bass move. Hopefully down. If not, Doc has to close his business and seek asylum in Papua-New Guinea 😆😁
The most important sentence of the FED statement is the last one:“...the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic Outlook as informed by incomming data.“
This means: Good news will be bad news for stocks, cause with every piece of good data FED will raise more, which will lead to a bear market in stocks.
But first of all the Feb low has to be broken.
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