There have been 25 items by SiP (Search limited from 21-November 16)
1. Did they increase the debt limit?
2. Will there be a huge money supply this quarter?
Or more simply - it the TBAC estimation and recommendation still valid?
If yes then we should at least sell stocks and start building shorts.
Do I get correctly that if they agree to 3month debt ceiling agreement, there wont be any large UST supply in Q4?
DId this happen in the past that TBAC decision was overwritten by politics?
Trump Sides With Democrats on Interim Debt-Limit Fix, Harvey Aid
House Crazies Angry At Trump’s Debt Ceiling Deal, Threaten Paul Ryan
Regarding 3mths debt ceiling extension I cant find any number. only couple bln state aid for Harvey.
Lee: "Yeah, but no way Treasury goes back to $400 billion cash. "
During the October – December 2017 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $501 billion in net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-December cash balance of $360 billion."
Sure but that was a very close call. In Q4 2017 there is gonna be huge supply of UST goovies.
"As you'll see, that is critical to making your own money when the Fed makes a move."
Is this the last sentence in article or there will be a follow up or maybe I need to sign up for newsletter to read rest of it?
BTW always pleasure to read your work.
Good read from liquidity point of view.
FX: Will dollar scarcity re-emerge in Q4?
weaker dollar is the effect of debt ceiling (no supply of debt). Dollar should get stronger at the end of 2017
Canada housing bubble
Same bubble in
The question is why? Maybe due to rising tensions, war rhetoric people want to buy house or condo is safe places?
I know the usual suspects: foreign Investment (like for 1 mln usd you get visa or stacking cash in safe place), immigration (i dont think its the main impact) and of course low rates (hunt for yield).
The question is when it will end?
If this end when rates rise then we will know whos fault it was. But if not? In US rates are rising slowly and prices keep rising.
I dont think its MBS problem this time.
Very interesting mania
Whats your view?
Hmmm take a look at SIMON PROPERTY GROUP
one of the largest and most popular retail-focused real estate investment trusts (REITs) in the market.
Simon Property Group invests in mall properties, including those under the Premium Outlets and The Mills brand names. Simon owns or has an ownership interest in 229 properties with about 190 million square feet, and is the largest publicly traded U.S. REIT.
additionally - they dont like interest rise, as usual.
Could be a canary in the coal mine.
THis is funny. I read about peurto rico bond problems everyday, like with crash in china. I hear those stories for past 5-7 years. amazing. Does anyone of you read more about greece? same thing for me.
You really think from fundamental perspective that there is scope for much higher oil prices? 60-70 on WTI yes but not more due to shale gas /oil revolution. US crude production is now a key thing to watch and # of oil rigs is growing again.
From "inflation" or reflation perspective - somewhere near mid 2017 we should be heading again towards deflation..... base effect would gone, same from china perspective. This reflation trade should die this year.
How many more waves you got in your sleeves?!
How do you get 2800 on SPX?
From eg megaphone pattern perspective (650/700 till 1600) we get 2500. From wave perspective we get 2390-2440 etc.
2400 is now my long term target based on waves.
This is amazing.
This is the 3rd longest bull market in history!
I remember start of it, TJ calls and many good traders here like I am Madness, Fxfoxx, jimi, Pretzel or famous K Wave.
The bears must be battered and tired. 92 months!
March 2017 would mark 2nd longest bull and july 2017 as longest bull in american capital market history. Amazing. We truly lives in historic times!
In Q1 2017 we should get some correction in equities (down), bonds (prices up, yield down), dollar (down).
Inauguration day (20th jan 2017) should mark the moment:
All the best in 2017 Stoolies
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