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#927636 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Anaemic ascents

Posted by SiP on 20 October 2017 - 01:55 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Hi

1. Did they increase the debt limit?
2. Will there be a huge money supply this quarter?

Or more simply - it the TBAC estimation and recommendation still valid?

If yes then we should at least sell stocks and start building shorts.



#927308 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Quickened qualms

Posted by SiP on 08 September 2017 - 03:16 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

I cross my finger for FL.

---
House passes, sends to Trump, bill on disaster aid and temporarily raising debt limit and funding government
--



#927295 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Perennial palaver

Posted by SiP on 07 September 2017 - 07:12 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Do I get correctly that if they agree  to 3month debt ceiling agreement, there wont be any large UST supply in Q4?

 

DId this happen in the past that TBAC decision was overwritten by politics?

Trump Sides With Democrats on Interim Debt-Limit Fix, Harvey Aid

https://www.bloomber...-term-debt-deal

 

House Crazies Angry At Trump’s Debt Ceiling Deal, Threaten Paul Ryan

http://nymag.com/dai...-paul-ryan.html

 

Regarding 3mths debt ceiling extension I cant find any number. only couple bln state aid for Harvey.




#927151 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Virtual vanity

Posted by SiP on 17 August 2017 - 02:39 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

2430 is a place  to watch on sp500

2092338.jpeg

http://www.bankfotek.pl/view/2092338

2092338

2092338




#927115 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion- Rapid retraction

Posted by SiP on 12 August 2017 - 10:22 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Lee: "Yeah, but no way Treasury goes back to $400 billion cash. "

 

TBAC:"

During the October – December 2017 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $501 billion in net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-December cash balance of $360 billion."

 

 

Sure but that was a very close call. In Q4 2017 there is gonna be huge supply of UST goovies.




#927112 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion- Rapid retraction

Posted by SiP on 11 August 2017 - 02:29 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

"As you'll see, that is critical to making your own money when the Fed makes a move."

 

Is this the last sentence in article or there will be a follow up or maybe I need to sign up for newsletter to read rest of it?

 

BTW always pleasure to read your work.




#927111 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion- Rapid retraction

Posted by SiP on 11 August 2017 - 02:21 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

there were 13 1% falls in SP500 since 2009. In 10 out of 13 cases the next day (today) was up. So its normal. Will see whats next week will show




#927052 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Natty notions

Posted by SiP on 07 August 2017 - 01:53 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Good read from liquidity point of view.

FX: Will dollar scarcity re-emerge in Q4?

https://nexus.nordea...re-emerge-in-q4

 

weaker dollar is the effect of debt ceiling (no supply of debt). Dollar should get stronger at the end of 2017




#926233 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Wheezy waltz

Posted by SiP on 23 April 2017 - 03:53 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Le pen and macron in second round

Bullish
We should see Eurusd 1.09 at the open.
Risk on week.



#926232 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Wheezy waltz

Posted by SiP on 22 April 2017 - 11:51 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Welcome back reflation trade?

http://stojeipatrze....tion-trade.html



#926148 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Nonsensical noodles

Posted by SiP on 10 April 2017 - 01:20 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

In 10 years you will telling people how good it was in the old days, just after your self driving car gets hacked and you end up in Baltimore.


Hahahhaha so true



#926139 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Nonsensical noodles

Posted by SiP on 10 April 2017 - 02:03 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Thanks Rationalize.
Amazing stupidity. They should cancel tax breaks and add tax on foreign investment in RE (llike canadians did last year - 15%tax on home if you dont live in it).



#926131 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Murky miasma

Posted by SiP on 09 April 2017 - 05:00 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Canada housing bubble
http://www.macleans....er-real-estate/

Same bubble in
Norway
Swiss
Australia
New zealand
Netherlands

The question is why? Maybe due to rising tensions, war rhetoric people want to buy house or condo is safe places?

I know the usual suspects: foreign Investment (like for 1 mln usd you get visa or stacking cash in safe place), immigration (i dont think its the main impact) and of course low rates (hunt for yield).

The question is when it will end?
If this end when rates rise then we will know whos fault it was. But if not? In US rates are rising slowly and prices keep rising.

I dont think its MBS problem this time.

Very interesting mania

Whats your view?



#926029 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Cantilevered collateral

Posted by SiP on 27 March 2017 - 01:46 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Gold - resistance

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#926028 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Cantilevered collateral

Posted by SiP on 27 March 2017 - 01:45 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Dollar on support

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#926012 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Burpy bounce

Posted by SiP on 26 March 2017 - 07:20 AM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Hmmm take a look at SIMON PROPERTY GROUP

one of the largest and most popular retail-focused real estate investment trusts (REITs) in the market. 

 

Simon Property Group invests in mall properties, including those under the Premium Outlets and The Mills brand names. Simon owns or has an ownership interest in 229 properties with about 190 million square feet, and is the largest publicly traded U.S. REIT.

 

 

?s=spg.us&c=3y&t=c&a=lg

 

https://stooq.com/q/...3y&t=c&a=lg&b=0

 

additionally - they dont like interest rise, as usual.

 

Could be a canary in the coal mine.




#925985 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Whacked waffling

Posted by SiP on 22 March 2017 - 02:03 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

WHAT ARE PUERTO RICO BONDS REALLY WORTH

 

Well you could say they are worth the market price 65 cents in the dollar

This is their market reality price.

 

Or you could try and determine the actual real reality price of the bonds i.e the discounted current market value of the actual cash flows that will be recieved in the future on these bonds.

 

But how do you determine this ....its impossible right?????

This information is simply not known.

 

Well the market is estimating these cash flows to come up with the current market prices.

But what if there is a better way....an alternative that is closer to the truth....to reality.

 

I suggest using an estimation of "capacity to pay" as an alternative measure.

 

Under this scenario as evidenced by the financial control boards usefully provided budget

The bonds are worth 30-40 cents on the dollar.

Considerably less than their current market prices.

 

Where is the Puerto RIco Bond Short EFT when you need it???

 

 

THis is funny. I read about peurto rico bond problems everyday, like with crash in china. I hear those stories for past 5-7 years. amazing. Does anyone of you read more about greece? same thing for me.




#925984 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Whacked waffling

Posted by SiP on 22 March 2017 - 01:59 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Doc,

I see you travel a lot via europe. Whats you favorite spot to work? Where is the best balance between prices and possibilities?




#925655 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Sabotaged serenity

Posted by SiP on 14 February 2017 - 04:50 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

I am still holding a bunch of long energy positions from the lows in 2016.

When the oil sector joins this final wave of madness in 2018, that's the time to unload everything.

 

In the mean time, play the small intermediate trends.

 

You really think from fundamental perspective that there is scope for much higher oil prices? 60-70 on WTI yes but not more due to shale gas /oil revolution. US crude production is now a key thing to watch and # of oil rigs is growing again.

 

From "inflation" or reflation perspective - somewhere near mid 2017 we should be heading again towards deflation..... base effect would gone, same from china perspective. This reflation trade should die this year.




#925650 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Sabotaged serenity

Posted by SiP on 14 February 2017 - 04:44 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

First wave coming off of the great financial depression lows (666) was about 800 points.

2nd wave coming off of the 2011 low (1100) was about 1,000 points.

3rd wave coming off of the 2016 low (1800) will probably be between 800-1000 points giving me the target of 2800.  That was my projection from the summer of 2016...think that was one of my last post before my little hiatus.   ;)

 

How many more waves you got in your sleeves?!  :blink:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:




#925648 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Sabotaged serenity

Posted by SiP on 14 February 2017 - 04:36 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

CRB commodidity index is interesting. Still cant cross rubicon which is 200

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#925647 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Sabotaged serenity

Posted by SiP on 14 February 2017 - 04:32 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

I think we'll get a nerve racking correction sometime this year but it will find it's footing for the march to 2800 S&P in 2018....

How do you get 2800 on SPX?

 

From eg megaphone pattern perspective (650/700 till 1600) we get 2500. From wave perspective we get 2390-2440 etc. 

2400 is now my long term target based on waves. 




#925645 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Sabotaged serenity

Posted by SiP on 14 February 2017 - 03:57 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

GS vision since 22nd dec 2016

http://bankfotek.pl/view/2058529

 

<a href='http://bankfotek.pl/view/2058529'><img src='http://bankfotek.pl/thumb/2058529.jpeg'></a>




#925643 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Sabotaged serenity

Posted by SiP on 14 February 2017 - 03:39 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

Welcome IAM!




#925354 World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Ongoing oblivion

Posted by SiP on 06 January 2017 - 05:08 PM in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

This is amazing.

 

This is the 3rd longest bull market in history!

 

I remember start of it, TJ calls and many good traders here like I am Madness, Fxfoxx, jimi, Pretzel or famous K Wave.

 

The bears must be battered and tired. 92 months!

bear.JPG

 

 

March 2017 would mark 2nd longest bull and july 2017 as longest bull in american capital market history. Amazing. We truly lives in historic times!

bull.JPG

 

 

In Q1 2017 we should get some correction in equities (down), bonds (prices up, yield down), dollar (down). 

Inauguration day (20th jan 2017) should mark the moment:

sezonowosc.PNG

 

 

All the best in 2017 Stoolies

Swordfish, SIP






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