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spx 1110 or 1010.


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Poll: which target will occur first.

which target will occur first.

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#1 The End

The End

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Posted 13 August 2004 - 07:16 PM

I would love to here why you voted for either target. I voted for 1010.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#2 stained jeans

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Posted 13 August 2004 - 10:29 PM

1000 on September 13 Bradley turn date, based on EW and Fib projections and an inherent bearish streak. :P

#3 TGakaTheBigHurt

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Posted 14 August 2004 - 02:24 PM

Mid Sept. shows up strongly as a low in my work using traditional cycles and the spiral calendar (a cycle of lunar months and fibonacci #s).

Here is the market activity of the past year vs. its F30 spiral counterpart. 26,936 (F30) days ago derrived by taking the square root of the 30th fibonacci# and multiplying by # of days in a lunar month.

Attached Images

  • F30_Comparison.GIF


#4 The End

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Posted 14 August 2004 - 04:56 PM

Tanks Big guy. Good to see you. :)
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#5 machinehead

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Posted 14 August 2004 - 07:48 PM

Remember that silly little saying the borkers came up with in 2001 -- "We got our October crash over with in September" ?

It was so simplistic and self-serving that none of us contrarians could believe it. But it turned out to be true.

My thoughts run along the same lines this year ... adding to what TGaka said.

When Wall Street throws one of its rare "Dancing Bear" costume parties, it doesn't pay to arrive fashionably late.
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#6 TGakaTheBigHurt

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Posted 21 August 2004 - 11:53 AM

I updated the F30 connection below. Looks like that sharp little bounce came right on time. Rally should be over pretty soon and then new lows into September but most likely that will be a time to turn bullish. After the projected drop towards 1000 area in mid Sept, the chart below shows a rally towards Nov 20th and a secondary high to Dec 20th. If the F30 connection continues to play out towards the end of this year, I would not be surprised to see that secondary high in Dec benefit from seasonality and be the higher high. Also note that the projected Sept to Dec rally does not look like all that much on the chart due to scaling issues but during the F30 timeframe it was a 25%+ rally, so a pretty big move from early Autumn to early Winter might be in the cards.

Attached Images

  • F30_Updated.GIF


#7 Grand Poopercycle

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Posted 22 August 2004 - 03:33 PM

The scaling overall seems to have diverged in recent months(looks to
be at a smaller level at present v. expected pattern-?)-should we expect
to continue over both ups 'n downs ahead?

#8 TGakaTheBigHurt

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Posted 22 August 2004 - 10:12 PM

Wouldn't expect much because relationships like this one come and go, meaning they can break down at any time. But if the timing holds up towards the end of the year, then maybe a drop from this week into mid Sept timeframe with a subsequent rally towards Nov and Dec are in the cards. My own take is that the 4 year cycle double bottomed in Oct 02/Mar 03 and it likely is still in an up phase. A normal/historical correction mid way through such an up phase would be in the 10-16% range and perhaps around 38.2% of the SPX 769 to 1163 move.





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