Jump to content


- - - - -

Oyster report


This topic has been archived. This means that you cannot reply to this topic.
30 replies to this topic

#1

  • Guests
  • 0 posts

Posted 09 June 2004 - 02:30 PM

Konnichi-wa folks, :)

I'm back from Japan, where my conference presentation was a big success. Even Burt Kaliski himself found it very interesting and told me that he was amazed how much cryptology there was in the computer virus field. (If you know anything about modern cryptology, you know who Dr. Burt Kaliski is. If you still don't have a clue - get one from Google. :)) My paper, in PDF format, can be downloaded from there. That site won't have it indefinitely, though - they told me that the presentations will be taken off-line by the end of August. I went sight-seeing in Tokyo and took some photos; when I have the time to make a Web page with them, I'll post the URL. There were some interesting things, including an electronic toilet seat, which will probably be of particular interest to this site. :lol:

Anyway - I'm back but still horrendously busy, because our company is undergoing a major rewrite of our product. I have so many things to finish before mid-July, when I'm leaving for my annual vacation, that my head is spinning... So, forgive me if I'm not able to post here much.

#2

  • Guests
  • 0 posts

Posted 09 June 2004 - 02:31 PM

OK, about this week's Oyster presentation. He started with something unusual - the weekly chart of coffee futures since 1998. (He said "indices are boring right now".) Unfortunately, I couldn't find a site that would provide such a chart, so I can't post it here.

The chart showed a bubble-like peak in 1998, followed by a severe decline, a rounded bottom, and a rally recently. He said that the 40-week EMA is crossing above the 200-week one and it seems that the coffee futures have entered a major bull market. Unfortunately, I am utterly unfamiliar with this market and didn't remember his price targets. He did warn, however, that this is a very speculative market (coffee futures in general, I mean) and one shouldn't rush in it carelessly.

#3

  • Guests
  • 0 posts

Posted 09 June 2004 - 02:31 PM

Next came a chart of the euro, with his Elliott Wave count, a seasonal cycle (which I cannot reproduce) and its inversion. He said that according to the cycle, the euro should rally here. However, given that it had dipped below critical support of 1.1930 in the past, and that it isn't rallying strongly, he expects that the cycle has inverted here (he said that inversions are often observed in this timeframe - whatever that means) and that we'll see new lows instead - which is suggested by the Elliott Wave count, too.

He added that the price must get above 1.25 for the bull move to continue. That if we have another leg down, the price will probably get to the 1.12-1.17 area.

Attached Images

  • xeu.gif


#4

  • Guests
  • 0 posts

Posted 09 June 2004 - 02:31 PM

Finally, came a chart of gold - again with straight and inverted seasonal cycles and his Elliott Wave count. He said "it's the same as the euro". That since in the past gold had dipped below the critical 375 support, it is likely that the cycle has inverted and it will have another leg down. That 388 remains the critical pivot - if the price falls below that (it just did this morning), then 375 will be tested and, if broken, we'll see 340 or maybe even 320. That the price must move above 400 and stay there, if we're about to have another bull move.

Personally, I agree that we're going to see a re-test of the recent lows and maybe even make marginally lower lows. I am not so certain, however, that we're going down to 340, let alone 320. I think that the price will remain in a broad trading range (370-400) for the next few months.

Attached Images

  • gold.gif


#5

  • Guests
  • 0 posts

Posted 09 June 2004 - 02:33 PM

That's it, folks. He didn't comment on the indices, so I would like to add some thoughts of my own about them. Basically, I expect a minor correction (e.g., to SPX 1120) to relieve the short-term overbought condition, followed by a strong rally. I expect the January high to be at least tested - and possibly surpassed. :(

Sorry about the bad news but just too many things point to such a scenario:
  • The Fed is pumping like mad. Recently the M3 money supply has increased by an astonishing rate - I haven't seen them increase it by so much even at major crisises!
  • The 21-dma of the Put/Call ratio is giving the mother of all Buy signals - turning down from stratospheric highs; it has never been so high for its whole history!
  • The sentiment is predominantly bearish. I'm not talking about this board - I'm talking about such things like the AAII bull/bear ratio. It has fallen as low as it hasn't been in a long, long time. (Although, admittedly, it has stayed way too high for an astonishing length of time.)
  • The Eliades New TRIN made a deep bottom similar to the one it has made at major market lows (think September 2001 and August 2002).
  • The NYSE Members Buy/Sell ratio had an incredible spike.
  • Downtrend breakouts out of bull flags and falling wedges on all the major indices.
  • It's an election year. (Yes, yes, I know...)
Regards,
Vesselin

#6 stanley

stanley

    Bachelor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 512 posts

Posted 09 June 2004 - 03:10 PM

Dr Bon,

nice humor .. .and many tanks

#7

  • Guests
  • 0 posts

Posted 09 June 2004 - 05:33 PM

Konnichi-wa folks, :)

I'm back from Japan, where my conference presentation was a big success. Even Burt Kaliski himself found it very interesting and told me that he was amazed how much cryptology there was in the computer virus field. (If you know anything about modern cryptology, you know who Dr. Burt Kaliski is. If you still don't have a clue - get one from Google. :)) My paper, in PDF format, can be downloaded from there. That site won't have it indefinitely, though - they told me that the presentations will be taken off-line by the end of August. I went sight-seeing in Tokyo and took some photos; when I have the time to make a Web page with them, I'll post the URL. There were some interesting things, including an electronic toilet seat, which will probably be of particular interest to this site. :lol:

Anyway - I'm back but still horrendously busy, because our company is undergoing a major rewrite of our product. I have so many things to finish before mid-July, when I'm leaving for my annual vacation, that my head is spinning... So, forgive me if I'm not able to post here much.

Welcome back Vess......

Does each virus have its own specific algorithm for encryption?

#8 machinehead

machinehead

    Dean of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 13,180 posts

Posted 09 June 2004 - 06:02 PM

OK, about this week's Oyster presentation. He started with something unusual - the weekly chart of coffee futures since 1998. (He said "indices are boring right now".) Unfortunately, I couldn't find a site that would provide such a chart, so I can't post it here.

The chart showed a bubble-like peak in 1998, followed by a severe decline, a rounded bottom, and a rally recently. He said that the 40-week EMA is crossing above the 200-week one and it seems that the coffee futures have entered a major bull market. Unfortunately, I am utterly unfamiliar with this market and didn't remember his price targets. He did warn, however, that this is a very speculative market (coffee futures in general, I mean) and one shouldn't rush in it carelessly.

Here's a long-term PDF chart of the coffee future since 1974:

http://www.mrci.com/pdf/kc.pdf

Coffee bottomed out at a miserable 41.5 cents/lb in late 2001. Today it's double that level. There's minor resistance (from 1999) at $1.40/lb. But on five occasions in the past, coffee has spiked to over $2.50/lb.

Brazil is the largest coffee producer. Coffee is grown in the Brazilian highlands, which are subject to occasional freezing weather -- about once every five years. About half the freezes occur in July, with the other half distributed between June and August.

Temperatures got down to 6 degrees C. in Brazil's coffee regions on the weekend of May 30th, which is still early in the season there, and raised the possibility of a cold winter.

The macro issue in the world coffee market is that there has been vast overproduction from new entrants such as Vietnam, which also has tropical highlands that are conducive to coffee trees. But the disastrously low prices of the past few years may have resulted in some coffee plantations deciding to cease production. Central America has been hit very hard by low prices, as have some African producers such as Uganda.

Maybe that is finally changing. A case can be made that the coffee surplus is easing. A freeze in Brazil would be icing on the cake.

I share Oyster's bullishness. But as he warned, the coffee contract is drastically volatile, in the same league as pork bellies. Don't even think of trading it on minimum margin.
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#9 SevenOfEleven

SevenOfEleven

    Assistant Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,365 posts

Posted 09 June 2004 - 08:22 PM

Konnichi-wa folks, :)

Arigatou Doc Vess.

-Seven

#10 Hiding Bear

Hiding Bear

    Associate Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,517 posts

Posted 09 June 2004 - 10:02 PM

Thanks Mr. B!

Coffee? Trading coffee futures is beyond the scope of mere mortals like myself.
I am a little disconcerted that Oyster appears to be backing away from his long-term strong Euro predictions, which of course means my gold related positions will do bad.

One comment - I don't think we will see a follow through on the strong M3 money growth. I would not be surprised if you actually see some weekly declines coming up soon.

#11 Bearman

Bearman

    Dean of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 14,811 posts

Posted 09 June 2004 - 10:24 PM

TANKS for the update!

#12 Butterfield 8

Butterfield 8

    Master of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 1,740 posts

Posted 09 June 2004 - 11:02 PM

Dr B - Many thanks for taking time out of your demanding day to keep us informed.

#13 Oyster

Oyster

    Master of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 1,622 posts

Posted 10 June 2004 - 01:54 AM

Good morning folks. Mr B. has so kindly kept you informed the past months of my rantings. He is unable to reproduce my cycles so I will post them now. Also I have to add the I mentioned Euro breaking 1.2150 would probably mean that cycles are inverting. I tried to put forward yesterday on Crapvision that the cycles which have done us well the past year on Gold/Gold stocks (130% up from March to 2004 and since -35% and rally) are probably inverting meaning that the trend will continue lower. My subscribers were selling the Gold stocks and Gold on the rally recently and ditto for Euro.....with the break of 1.2150.

View Chart
http://avid.investsy...A0-FXXDaily.gif

Edited by DrStool, 11 June 2004 - 09:09 AM.


#14 Oyster

Oyster

    Master of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 1,622 posts

Posted 10 June 2004 - 01:55 AM

View Chart

Edited by DrStool, 11 June 2004 - 09:10 AM.


#15 Oyster

Oyster

    Master of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 1,622 posts

Posted 10 June 2004 - 01:57 AM

View Chart

Edited by DrStool, 11 June 2004 - 09:11 AM.






Stock market portfolio giving you the runs? See Dr. Stool.

Take a subscribatory!
Download 
The Anals of Stock Proctology now!



The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board
Stool's Gold- Gold and Precious Metals Forum
Look Out Below Message Board

Support your local Stool Board.


The Al E. Greenspeuman designer line at Stoolmart. Get yours today! Click here now!
Get Mugged!


Dr. Stool's
Book Search

Enter title, author, or keyword
Just books
All Products





Old Stool Depository

Live Steaming Pile Chart