30 replies to this topic
Posted 09 June 2004 - 02:30 PM
I'm back from Japan, where my conference presentation was a big success. Even Burt Kaliski himself found it very interesting and told me that he was amazed how much cryptology there was in the computer virus field. (If you know anything about modern cryptology, you know who Dr. Burt Kaliski is. If you still don't have a clue - get one from Google. ) My paper, in PDF format, can be downloaded from there. That site won't have it indefinitely, though - they told me that the presentations will be taken off-line by the end of August. I went sight-seeing in Tokyo and took some photos; when I have the time to make a Web page with them, I'll post the URL. There were some interesting things, including an electronic toilet seat, which will probably be of particular interest to this site.
Anyway - I'm back but still horrendously busy, because our company is undergoing a major rewrite of our product. I have so many things to finish before mid-July, when I'm leaving for my annual vacation, that my head is spinning... So, forgive me if I'm not able to post here much.
Posted 09 June 2004 - 02:31 PM
OK, about this week's Oyster presentation. He started with something unusual - the weekly chart of coffee futures since 1998. (He said "indices are boring right now".) Unfortunately, I couldn't find a site that would provide such a chart, so I can't post it here.
The chart showed a bubble-like peak in 1998, followed by a severe decline, a rounded bottom, and a rally recently. He said that the 40-week EMA is crossing above the 200-week one and it seems that the coffee futures have entered a major bull market. Unfortunately, I am utterly unfamiliar with this market and didn't remember his price targets. He did warn, however, that this is a very speculative market (coffee futures in general, I mean) and one shouldn't rush in it carelessly.
Posted 09 June 2004 - 02:31 PM
Next came a chart of the euro, with his Elliott Wave count, a seasonal cycle (which I cannot reproduce) and its inversion. He said that according to the cycle, the euro should rally here. However, given that it had dipped below critical support of 1.1930 in the past, and that it isn't rallying strongly, he expects that the cycle has inverted here (he said that inversions are often observed in this timeframe - whatever that means) and that we'll see new lows instead - which is suggested by the Elliott Wave count, too.
He added that the price must get above 1.25 for the bull move to continue. That if we have another leg down, the price will probably get to the 1.12-1.17 area.
Posted 09 June 2004 - 02:31 PM
Finally, came a chart of gold - again with straight and inverted seasonal cycles and his Elliott Wave count. He said "it's the same as the euro". That since in the past gold had dipped below the critical 375 support, it is likely that the cycle has inverted and it will have another leg down. That 388 remains the critical pivot - if the price falls below that (it just did this morning), then 375 will be tested and, if broken, we'll see 340 or maybe even 320. That the price must move above 400 and stay there, if we're about to have another bull move.
Personally, I agree that we're going to see a re-test of the recent lows and maybe even make marginally lower lows. I am not so certain, however, that we're going down to 340, let alone 320. I think that the price will remain in a broad trading range (370-400) for the next few months.
Posted 09 June 2004 - 02:33 PM
That's it, folks. He didn't comment on the indices, so I would like to add some thoughts of my own about them. Basically, I expect a minor correction (e.g., to SPX 1120) to relieve the short-term overbought condition, followed by a strong rally. I expect the January high to be at least tested - and possibly surpassed.
Sorry about the bad news but just too many things point to such a scenario:
Posted 09 June 2004 - 05:33 PM
Welcome back Vess......
Does each virus have its own specific algorithm for encryption?
Posted 09 June 2004 - 06:02 PM
Here's a long-term PDF chart of the coffee future since 1974:
Coffee bottomed out at a miserable 41.5 cents/lb in late 2001. Today it's double that level. There's minor resistance (from 1999) at $1.40/lb. But on five occasions in the past, coffee has spiked to over $2.50/lb.
Brazil is the largest coffee producer. Coffee is grown in the Brazilian highlands, which are subject to occasional freezing weather -- about once every five years. About half the freezes occur in July, with the other half distributed between June and August.
Temperatures got down to 6 degrees C. in Brazil's coffee regions on the weekend of May 30th, which is still early in the season there, and raised the possibility of a cold winter.
The macro issue in the world coffee market is that there has been vast overproduction from new entrants such as Vietnam, which also has tropical highlands that are conducive to coffee trees. But the disastrously low prices of the past few years may have resulted in some coffee plantations deciding to cease production. Central America has been hit very hard by low prices, as have some African producers such as Uganda.
Maybe that is finally changing. A case can be made that the coffee surplus is easing. A freeze in Brazil would be icing on the cake.
I share Oyster's bullishness. But as he warned, the coffee contract is drastically volatile, in the same league as pork bellies. Don't even think of trading it on minimum margin.
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."
"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano
"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004
"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan
[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals." - our jickiss
Posted 09 June 2004 - 10:02 PM
Thanks Mr. B!
Coffee? Trading coffee futures is beyond the scope of mere mortals like myself.
I am a little disconcerted that Oyster appears to be backing away from his long-term strong Euro predictions, which of course means my gold related positions will do bad.
One comment - I don't think we will see a follow through on the strong M3 money growth. I would not be surprised if you actually see some weekly declines coming up soon.
Posted 09 June 2004 - 11:02 PM
Dr B - Many thanks for taking time out of your demanding day to keep us informed.
Posted 10 June 2004 - 01:54 AM
Good morning folks. Mr B. has so kindly kept you informed the past months of my rantings. He is unable to reproduce my cycles so I will post them now. Also I have to add the I mentioned Euro breaking 1.2150 would probably mean that cycles are inverting. I tried to put forward yesterday on Crapvision that the cycles which have done us well the past year on Gold/Gold stocks (130% up from March to 2004 and since -35% and rally) are probably inverting meaning that the trend will continue lower. My subscribers were selling the Gold stocks and Gold on the rally recently and ditto for Euro.....with the break of 1.2150.
Edited by DrStool, 11 June 2004 - 09:09 AM.
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