Monthly Digger - November 2009

[Charmin]

At some point the 50 bar moving average (red) is going to meet up with price. We could see a price correction down to that or make time moving sideways before the 50 bar meets with price. In the meantime, somebody will get spooked. Some would say the bears took control near term, even though it only closed a hair under the weekly swing low.

 

HUI

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1256959940.png

[bearvest]

HUI:

 

From an Elliott perspective we have,

 

1. overlap of the August highs,

2. a 5 wave structure left on the chart, as a result.

 

Thus, it is clear that an impulse is in. This is also indicated by the intermediate trend---a pattern of higher highs, but lower lows. Normally, wave 4 of the prior impulse up should hold as support.

 

The red count shows a rather "iffy" 5 wave structure. It has retraced slightly more than 50% of the July rally. There is a very long tail on that last red-bodied candle Thus, it appears that the first phase of an abc correction could now be in play and complete.

 

Stochastics and %B (the Bollinger Bands) both indicate a very Dover Sole market with slight positive divergences, consistent with wave A having completed.

 

B waves retrace 38 to 62 % of wave A. They tend to be at the longer end of the Fibonacci scale.

 

Thus, an immediate move to 420-430 seems likely for next week.

[dharma]

yesterday was interesting for me, the broads suffered a big down day and gold was-.5 and the miners recovered quite a bit. i just wonder if the golds and broads are going to go separate ways?

dharma

[Whadda I Do Whadda I Do]

Russians say they want to sell some gold so an attack on gold price in play. It couldn't be beat down with the miners with normal manipulation so 'big bank to sell gold' trick will be tried. Usually only has an effect for a couple days.

 

Looking at five day some of the miners NG RBY IAG CDE even DROOpY not much damage at all. Douglas Lake Minerals way up on the day. A lot of gap fills and lots of volatility with price. Forget those 1%-3% swings more like 8%-10%. Was happy to add.

[Ageka]

Droopy had a blow off day at extreme volume on thursday in euroland and no more volume on friday.

I think it bottommed in euro

 

GBG did nice

 

All in all I am slightly up on gold physical in euro and 8% down in shares on a friday closing basis

( overall this was changing in 2009)

 

A german on line newslettre printed a 24 pages report on gold . I think phade 2 of recognition will be acoming the next 6 months

My wife also received a note that conquer the crash 2 is on sale to benefit from the deflation

[bearvest]

GOLD:

 

I'm looking for a 4th wave triangle, as I still believe we're in a significant 3rd wave up.

 

My ultimate target for red 5 (which will be Blue 3) is 1180. Probably in late winter or early spring.

[Gold Majestic]

October, 2008:

 

G.M.

 

Googled up the October, 2008 thread.

 

You were touting Chesapeke Gold 0n October 18, 2008. At post 484 of the thread, you issued a "buy recommendation" at $4.11. It was your largest holding.

 

How's it working out for you?

 

Here's the chart.

 

I see that in my absence, concerning Chesapeake Gold Bearvest has misrepresented what I said once again and asks that I reply.

 

B.V., You continue to puzzle me. You complain about posts being taken out of context, and then you proceed do just that. Although most likely a waste of my time, I’ll explain my October posts concerning CKG to set the record straight.

 

Many times I’ve made it clear that I’m a long-term investor and have unwaveringly encouraged the practice of accumulating PM stocks of companies with exceptional fundamentals with a special emphasis on management ONLY on SIGNIFICANT DIPS! Knock, knock, knock, anyone home, BV? ONLY on Significant Dips! However, occasionally someone that has no exposure to Gold Stocks will ask me my opinion, and I’ll recommend an initial position by "averaging in" over a period of time preferably ON DIPS (Especially Significant Dips) with protective stops. Then proceed to take partial profits as "stops" are hit later.

 

With that said, I did not recommend to anyone to buy Chesapeake on Oct. 18th at $4.11. That is false. At that time concerning Chesapeake Gold, I posted on October 17th the very significant, long awaited news of CKG’s announcement of their BULLISH Metates Technical Report. And as a follow up to that post on October 19th, my perspective (for anyone interested) of the results, and my personal interests in the company. I wrote the following:

 

http://www.capitalstool.com/forums/index.p...st&p=701591

 

Aside from discussing the technical report, basically I explained that my shares were acquired from the buyout of Francisco Gold where I received 1 CKG share for every 1 FGX share, considered by me to be “FREE SHARES.” This was in addition to making 1,600% plus on my “BUY & HOLD” strategy that you Bearvest say doesn’t work. I've given many examples of companies recommended here that were later bought out for substantial profits. If you’re still confused Bearvest, go back and read the post several more times, it isn’t that difficult to understand.

 

I ended the thorough post with the following paragraph:

 

"As always, the investments I discuss are most probably not suitable for short-term "charters" with little patience or disregard for company and sector fundamentals. I would encourage only those investors with a long-term buy and hold stategy that are prepared to put in a significant amount of effort to research the company, its management and fundamentals of its sector. IMO, prospective investors must have patience and a thorough understanding of the fundamentals to "marry" this stock until it becomes bought out by a major, or goes into production."

 

Read what I said about being NOT SUITABLE FOR SHORT-TERM INVESTORS.

 

Now to answer your question, “How's it working out for you?”

 

How is it working for me? You can’t figure that out?

FREE SHARES that are today worth $4.50?

 

$4.50 divided by ZERO = ???? That’s right they were valued at C$1.50 but they were given to share holders of FGX for ZERO cost outside of the Glamis takeover of the Marlin project.

 

Furthermore, when I DID recommend buying CKG on “significant dips,” it wasn’t on October 18th as you claim, but later on October 22 and two days later on the Oct 24th "Back Up the Truck Deal of a Decade."

 

Please read Bearvest:

 

http://www.capitalstool.com/forums/index.p...st&p=702406

 

http://www.capitalstool.com/forums/index.p...st&p=703608

 

Now on October 24th, you could have bought CKG for under US$1.50 as I was backing up the truck as posted!

 

Secondly, as I’ve already explained before in detail, being an investor with US$, there was also a substantial currency gain as well. I’ll post a chart to help you understand this.

 

Not only did CKG increase 2.4 times in value in 5 short months from Oct 24 – to middle of March, (allowing for “FREE SHARES” ONCE AGAIN), there was just recently an additional 23% profit in selling Dollars for Loonies at that time.

 

How did it work out, you ask? As is obvious, it has worked out extremely well.

 

But more importantly, instead you should be asking, How WILL it work out?

You state it’s my biggest holding and that’s true. I own 1.63% of the company. When it gets bought out, I’ll certainly let you know then, but so far it’s meeting my expectations from both a price and time perspective.

 

Example, I held Arizona Star (BUY & HOLD) for 8.5 years and made a fortune on its eventual buyout, from 28¢ to US$18 plus. I held because I understood the fundamentals and knew what the majors were looking for, ridiculously CHEAP GOLD and COPPER in a mining friendly environment! I bought when the "Fundamentals Are Useless" Crowd of ignoramuses were selling it for nothing. I was not disappointed. Now how many companies have I posted here that were since bought out for a substantial gain?

Or perhaps a better question would be how many companies have you posted that resulted in buyouts for a substantial profit. I can answer the question for you. NOT A SINGLE ONE.

 

So I’ve addressed your question about Chesapeake Gold and cleared up your out of context interpretation of my posts back in October.

 

Now I have a couple questions for you B.V.

 

Explain your posts during that same time frame:

 

1. On October 23, the exact Day of the Bottom in Gold Stocks you compared the HUI to the “Just like the "dot.com bubble" of 2002, the "Asian bubble" of 1997.... yada-yada-yada.” “HUI: Failure here and we can all tell our Grandchildren about the "P.M. bubble" of the early 2000's.”

 

From my perspective you were completely clueless. The "Charts Tell All" certainly failed you continuously.

 

2. Just one day before (Oct 22) the Back Up The Truck of a Decade Bottom, concerning the HUI you stated:

“The "3 of C" count is a better fit. It makes 3 of C larger than 1 of C.

That means a crushing 20% decline from these levels.

Jeez!”

 

That would have taken us down to 134 from the Oct 22 167 level!

 

3. And yet on Oct 6th, you were a buyer of Gold Stocks:

“XAU: Corrections, being contra-trend, are often very hard to count.

That's why I try to use MACD and Stochastics to refine a count.

I'm a buyer here:

MACD is setting up for positive divergence,

Stochastics is into Dover Sole,

Possible double bottom,

Big ABC or WXY on the chart,

It looks like a 5 wave pattern since September 22, and

Long-tailed candle.”

 

So the question, how did that turn out for you Bearvest? Do I need to post a chart to remind you of the “horror show" that occurred from Oct 6th to Oct 23?

 

3. Or what about your Oct 6th post that states:?

 

“EnDing Diagonal:

It looks like a 5th wave ending diagonal on the intra-day.

Took positions in CDE and SSRI this morning.

Is CDE halted?”

 

How did that turn out for you? That’s rhetorical. Here’s a chart to remind you of what happened, and I'll verbalize the answer to that question for you. OOOOOOUUUUUUCCCCCCHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

And finally, based on your sentiment and conclusions the very day before the bottom for a further 20% drop, did you then SHORT those PM stocks thus jumping from the frying pan into the fire?

[Gold Majestic]

G.M.

 

Ive spent 37 tears battling in the courts.

 

As lawyers, we leave the antagonism behind once we leave the precints of the court.

 

I've been civil and patient with you while you've looked around to present unfair and out of context personal attacks on me. "He's probably short already" was one. The statment was made with no fundamental knowlege

 

I simply waited to show objectively that people can be wrong, and you can one of them.

 

Now this historical search does little to get us on to current analysis. Like that hypothetical DZZ trade at the October bottom represented the "saddest and least expreienced sack". It's not me. I went long.

 

So simply cut the bullshit. I'm gonna post and so are you. How about a truce. You expess whatever you wish to say without comment and I'll do the same.

 

Lets try a civil exchange where honest men can honestly disagree in a civil fashon

 

Bear"vest" you've made it abundantly clear of your status as a lawyer. However, I'm not impressed. Where's the debate to support your positions? I've always provided my reasoning to support mine. When I've replied to your "Fundamentals are Useless" charges, asking you for a response, all I get is no response or accusations of "diatribe."

 

"I've been civil and patient with you while you've looked around to present unfair and out of context personal attacks on me. "He's probably short already" was one. The statment was made with no fundamental knowlege"

 

Huh? Civil and patient? Who was it early on that started criticizing my work? You. Who was it early on that claimed I was "paying someone to do my charts"? You. Who was it that blew a fuse when I posted a different interpretation of an Ewave count claiming it was wrong even though I gave many legitimate examples? You. Who was it recently that alluded to the idea I was arrogant, poorly behaved, a bad husband? You. Speaking of bad husbands, you're the one that bragged about trading your wife's account. Doesn't that qualify as spousal abuse counselor? It's you that makes sexist remarks such as "If it's your wife, buy the physical first, and bury it. Tell her the markets have been tough and you need some solace. Offer a cheap gift that she'll hate to remind her of tough times. Remind her that life will have to be restructured---possibly with a reduction in aesthetics, clothihing, entertainment, and travel. She'll understand." That's sounds so typical and no I'm not laughing. My wife runs an orphanage and abused children's home in Manila with the help of our family there bought and paid for with Gold Stock profits! Why? Because she asked and her wish is my command. We are best friend and do everything together. We're inseparable. She's an angel and I treat her like one. Can you say that about your wife. Most can't. You have no idea how I treat my wife Mr. "Divorce" attorney. And what does that have to do with investing in Gold Stocks anyway?

 

What does have relevance is discussing what works. So I'll return the suggestion to you, "simply cut the bullshit".

 

What I did do after your criticisms was to start holding you accountable for your "IF, AND, BUT" posts that were Bullish, Bearish and Neutral, sometimes all on the same day. Hold you accountable for dishonest claims such as after selling calls on GG at a cyclical bottom, you were able to buy back those positions just prior to expiration at no loss! After GG predictably proceeded to continue to move much higher to the top of the channel.

 

You and I are very different. I believe it essential to understand as much as possible about any endeavor we undertake in our lifetimes. Investing hard earned savings is no different. You don't.

 

Although probably much younger than you, I've been flying a variety of aircraft since the age of fourteen earning my private pilot single engine license one month after turning 15. Apparently I've been flying airplanes longer than you've been counseling couples in the process of suing one another. As I pilot, I learned early how important it is to understand the fundamentals of flight, navigation, human physiology, weather, avionics, etc. I've had several classmates from The US Air Force Academy that died because of pilot error. A couple were my good buddies that I used to go snow skiing with. Ross Latorra was one of them. As much as he was a friend of mine, he was a "just tell me what I need to know" kind of guy. In my opinion, he was too cocky and didn't take flying supersonic jets seriously enough. He died in a midair collision as an instructor pilot a few years later. The point is, it's of the up most importance to understand everything possible about a chosen endeavor for the sake of success. As a mathematics instructor at Hawaii Pacific University back in the late 80s, most of my Calculus students were from Hong Kong. Out of a typical class of 35 students, probably 20 would be Chinese, 7 U.S, 4 Japanese, 2 or 3 Canadians, and 1 or 2 from South America. The big challenge was to accommodate the non-asian students in their learning. The attitude from them was "Just tell me what I need to know to pass the the test." Whereas the Chinese students especially, were shocked if I didn't assign every single practice problem in the section. They wanted to learn and learn they did! The Chinese students were all getting "A"s whereas the others were averaging "C"s or worse or lucky to get a "B."

 

So when I refer to investors that state "Fundamentals Are Useless" as members of the Forest Crowd of ignoramuses, I sincerely mean it. I have no tolerance for incompetents, especially the cocky ones that have a track record of being wrong and leading others astray. I'm sick of those that claim it's all about the destination, when more importantly, it's about the journey. In my experience, when guys like you are always putting down efforts to understand the "big picture," the macro elements (fundamentals) shaping the various markets we invest in, and then proceed to make statements like you have after a world wide credit collapse something to the effect of, "Something must be really wrong with the economy," it's sheer ignorance in my opinion.

 

I happen to believe that although the world has many incredibly complex problems, individuals need to get busy learning, thinking, exchanging ideas to focus on the solutions instead of the usual cynical responses of "It's all hopeless, useless," etc. Investing is no different, whether it's learning the fundamentals or the technicals, both are important especially if they're used in context to one another.

 

I can't help it that people like you B.V. choose to believe that understanding the markets is pointless, and I can't help that you fall into the category that I ascribe to such people.

 

"Lets try a civil exchange where honest men can honestly disagree in a civil fashon"

 

Yes, let's be civil. And when I refer to the forest crowd of ignoramuses (as defined as the "Fundamentals Are Useless" that lead down the path to destruction, don't include yourself unless you want to.

 

I could make a case of their effectiveness if I were to sit in front of a computer all day predicting the market's reaction to this event or that and get it right more than wrong. But I have a life to live and therefore as a "long-term" investor only having to get the general direction correct to eventually make a killing whether I have to wait for months or years.

[Gold Majestic]

As for the general markets, I was going to post a few charts but got side tracked.

 

I'll say again, my analysis is just my opinion and suitable only for longer-term investors of like mind. So don't buy anything on my recommendation unless you've done your own homework and are prepared to wait it out.

 

The same can be said for markets. As those that have been posting here for a long time would know, my timing sometimes has much to be desired. From a big picture standpoint, the charts of the world's major stock markets suggest that we are about to enter phase II of a crisis. But as I have opined, I don't think it's Fall 2008. I think it's more similar to a possible 15-20% (if that) style correction. It really depends on market liquidity, and I'll be one to post when that appears to change for the worse.

 

Although the US economy looks bad going forward, the creators of "fiat money" always come back with yet more stimulus.

 

Gold Long-term? Gold is in a long term secular bull market. Bottom line? This trend will remain intact as long as it stays above last year's low around US$680. Intermediate Term? As you all know, last month Gold broke out of a very Bullish 19-Month long consolidation Reversed Head & Shoulders pattern and suggests it will reach USD$1350 next year. Yes, such Bullish patterns can fail so we keep our attention focused on the fundamentals supporting this sector.

 

Short Term? Gold made a short term top near US$1070 two weeks ago. Since then it has been in a short term correction. The US$1000-$1025 is the short term support that should hold.

 

Gold Stocks? Obviously, if the intermediate term pattern fullfills its destiny, we should all be long Gold / Gold stocks (I am). But can the pattern break down? Yes, but in my opinion not likely. Bottom line, if you're very conservative, wait for the inevitable significant dip to buy back your favorite Gold/Silver stocks.

 

Two stocks I've added again to recently? Sprott Resources (already taked about this one) and Terra Ventures, an undervalued Uranium w/ Gold speculation.

[Whadda I Do Whadda I Do]

[Gold Majestic]

Not sure I'll have time to post for awhile.

 

Fundamentals:

Before I climbed into the cockpit of an aircraft, I studied everything there was to know about it: avionics and HUD, powerplant, hydraulics, fuel tanks, weaponry, radar, fuselage, wings, landing gear, etc. The importance of blah, blah, blah . . .

ASSumed nothing!

 

And then . . .

 

JET FUEL STARTER – Check!

Advance to IDLE at either 20 % rpm min or max motoring rpm – Check!

CAUTION LIGHT Off – Check!

ENGINE WARNING LIGHT - 60 % rpm OFF – Check!

JET FUEL STARTER Confirmed OFF – Check!

HYDRAULICS/OIL Pressure warning light OFF – CHECK!

FUEL FLOW - 700 - 1700 pph – CHECK!

OIL PRESSURE – PLUS 15 psi – CHECK!

NOZ POS - Greater than 95 %.- CHECK!

RPM - 64 - 80 % - CHECK!

FTIT – LESS THAN 650 deg C –CHECK!

HYD PRESSURE A & B - 2850 - 3250 psi – CHECK!

Six fuel pump lights ON – CHECK!

MAIN FUEL SHUTOFF valve – Check!

Jet Fuel Starter Doors - Verify Closed – CHECK!

Throttle Cutoff Release – Check!

TEST switch panel – Check!

PROBE HEAT - CHECK!

FIRE & OVERHEAT DETECT – Test – CHECK!

OXYGEN QTY test switch - Test –CHECK!

MAL & IND LTS – Test-CHECK!

AVIONICS POWER – Set – CHECK!

FCC / SMS / UFC Switches – FCC – CHECK!

INS – Align - CHECK!

Sensor Power Management panel (All switches) – CHECK!

HUD - As I desire – CHECK!

CNI – UFC – CHECK!

MFL – Clear – CHECK!

(PW220) SEC / (GE100) SEC – Check!

Flight Controls – Cycle On Off – CHECK!

FLCS Self-Test – CHECK!

SPEED BRAKE – Cycle On/OFF – CHECK!

WHEELS DOWN LIGHTS - Three Green! – CHECK!

FUEL QTY SEL – Check!

EPU FUEL QUANTITY – 100% - CHECK!

Avionics - Program as req'd for mission – CHECK!

VHF Radio – working – CHECK!

TRIM for take-off- Check!

FLCS Override – Check!

MPO – Check!

Operating controls / no FLCS lights ON – CHECK!

AIR REFUELING System – Check!

BRAKES – CHECK!

ANTI-ICE – Check!

EPU GEN and EPU PMG lights - Confirmed OFF-CHECK!

Intercomm – Disconnected to groundcrew-CHECK!

Avionic BIT's – the way I like it-CHECK!

Canopy - Close and Lock-CHECK!

ALTIMETER - Set – CHECK!

EXRERIOR LIGHTS - CHECK!

INS – NAV-CHECK!

Ground crew remove Chocks – CHECK!

 

Tower Clearance / Salute Ground crew / Taxi to runway:

Check Brakes and NWS – CHECK!

Flight Instruments Operatiing properly-CHECK!

ALT FLAPS – NORM – CHECK!

TRIM – Pitch/Yaw/Roll –CHECK!

ENG CONT - NORM –CHECK!

Speedbrakes – Closed – CHECK!

Canopy - Close, lock, light OFF-CHECK!

IFF – CHECK!

STORES CONFIG / GND JETT ENABLE / Anti-G - Check!

EPU – Check!

PROBE HEAT –CHECK!

Ejection Safety Lever - Arm Down-CHECK!

Cycle Flight Controls –CHECK!

Oil Pressure – PSI-normal-CHECK!

All warning and CAUTION Lights OFF- CHECK!

 

Cleared for takeoff / visual scan of runway/skies-Check!

 

Throttle UP, ready, takeoff / there’s 1 stage, 2, 3, 4, that’s all 5 of em’!

 

That’s 100, 130, rotate gear, there’s 255, 400, 600, 800, accelerating straight up, now the world is upside down, 1250, 1500 / enjoy the ride!

 

Gooberout

[traderfromhell]

Higher lows on the Yearly are the most important point GM. Yep.

[dharma]

if you are not acquainted w/jesse

say hello

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/etf-go...s/index/a/25187

dharma

[Dharmaeye]

Droopy had a blow off day at extreme volume on thursday in euroland and no more volume on friday.

I think it bottommed in euro

 

GBG did nice

 

All in all I am slightly up on gold physical in euro and 8% down in shares on a friday closing basis

( overall this was changing in 2009)

 

A german on line newslettre printed a 24 pages report on gold . I think phade 2 of recognition will be acoming the next 6 months

My wife also received a note that conquer the crash 2 is on sale to benefit from the deflation

 

Looking at your 107 day cycle and noticed half way through is about Nov 9 - the Bradley turn date.

[dharma]

anyone remember the link for the top 50 junior gold miners? tia dharma