Jump to content

IDS World Markets Fri 30th October 09


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 382
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Holy Crap !!!

 

That CNBC "Lost MOney" vs "Rosie" interview lit off a sh*tstorm -------> Here

 

What jagoffs. Ask the guy to speak on their show and then do everything possible to argue with him! Rosenberg spoke intelligently - made those 2 slimeballs show themselves to be the idiots they really are.

Slimeball #1: "Auto Inventories; Auto Inventories!"

Pubic Head #2: "I'll betcha a dinner over the markets?!"

Shut that crap down!

 

It made me mad enough I blew a little time looking at the GDP and Durable Good numbers, because they are way off.

 

Here's what they said in the GDP report:

The improvement in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected upturns in personal consumption, inventory investment, exports, and residential fixed investment and a smaller decrease in nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by rise in imports, a downturn in state and local government spending, and a deceleration in federal government spending.

 

Indeed, some of the component numbers were encouraging. PCEs rose an annualized 3.4 percent, led by durables with a 22.3 percent jump.

...

Cash for clunkers did add substantially to third quarter growth as motor vehicle output added 1.66 percentage points to the third-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.19 percentage point to the second-quarter change.

 

So, as of yesterday, cash for clunkers was so successful it add 1.66% to the GDP. Ok, let's see the numbers in Durable Goods leading up to yesterday.

 

10/28/09 Durable Goods

According to the latest durable goods report for September, manufacturing is still on track for a moderate recovery. Durable goods orders in rebounded 1.0 percent, after a 2.6 percent drop in August and a 4.8 percent surge in July.

...

The rebound in new orders was led by machinery which surged a monthly 7.9 percent, followed by a 1.1 percent rebound in transportation equipment. Transportation was boosted by a rebound in defense aircraft, up 12.5 percent, as motor vehicles and nondefense aircraft slipped 0.1 percent and 2.1 percent, respectively.

 

Nope, no cash for clunkers stimulus in September. Motor Vehicles acutally fell. How about August?

 

9/25/09 Durable Goods

Durable goods orders in August dropped 2.4, after a revised 4.8 percent surge in July. The August number came in far below the consensus forecast for a 1.0 percent gain. Excluding the transportation component, new durables orders were unchanged, following an upwardly revised 0.9 percent boost in July.

...

The drop in new orders was led by transportation, which fell 9.3 percent. Within transportation, nondefense aircraft fell 42.2 percent, defense aircraft declined 10.6 percent, and motor vehicles rose 0.4 percent. Otherwise, new orders were mixed.

 

So, there was only a .4% increase in motor vehicles = noted. How about July?

 

8/26/09 Durable Goods

Aircraft orders and auto orders made for a surge in the manufacturing sector during July, another key factor suggesting that the recession has already come to an end. New orders for durable goods shot up 4.9 percent. Excluding an 18.4 percent surge in transportation, orders still rose a strong 0.8 percent. Civilian aircraft orders rose more than six fold while motor vehicle orders, likely boosted by cash for clunkers, rose 0.9 percent.

 

So, in the last quarter, motor vehicles were down .1%, up .4% and up .9%. How does that add up to 1.7% of the GDP? It's just not there. If anything, aircraft and machinery had a larger impact. Still, these numbers don't even come close to justifying the "22.3%" jump in durables reported in the GDP.

 

This is all a bunch of garbage. Cash for clunkers, by the durable goods orders, was only a moderate success at best. GDP, by the durable goods orders, is a blatant manipulation. Slimeballs #1&2 are complete morons with no clue about what they are talking about. I'd really love to take that smirk off of SB#1's face the old fashioned way!

 

For reference, here's your recovery, compliments of Durable Goods and Cash for Clunkers:

 

post-4028-1256901111.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good Morning!

 

Welcome to Intraday Stool! Thanks to aussiebear for her daily opening!

 

You can join the discussion by registering (PG rated user names only, please) and posting here as well.

 

Registration is easy. Just click the Register link above, enter your email address (which you have the option to keep confidential), and enter a user name. Due to a deluge of spam registrations, I review all registrations so it may take a day or so for your registration to be approved.

 

If you have questions about how to register and post, use the Help link in the menu bar at the top of the page.

 

If you know others who might be interested in joining us, use the email to a friend link above the thread.

 

Many tanks for joining us!

 

Doc

 

 

Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don't find the information helpful, I'll give you a full refund. It's that simple!Click here for more information.

 

Subscribe to the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Precious Metals Daily, just $49 quarterly. Try it risk free for 30 days!

 

Get this indispensable daily analysis and support the Stool!

 

rfwsad.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Dear Lurkers-

 

If this forum helps you be a better trader, or just make a winning trade or two, please DONATE! And remember to designate your the Stoolie who helped you so that we can send your thank$ to them!

 

Many tanks,

 

Doc

Link to comment
Share on other sites

But on a lot longer look, uptrend still doubly in tact.....

 

We are inches away from getting it all in sync....in the mean time, bully has to be respected.....

 

 

Gonna be real interesting to to see if if the recent trend line divergence between the tick charts and the time based charts turns out to be an early warning indicator or not....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This power stick in IBM still bothering me a bit for bear case....subsequent bull flag and breakout not helping matters....

 

But..if bears can stop it right here, and get price back below the bull flag and the 15 min 900, da bullz should finished....

 

I don't think the Dow gonna make too much headway downside without the behemoth on board.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Tell a friend

    Love Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board? Tell a friend!
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
  • ×
    • Create New...