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aussiebear

IDS World Markets Fri 23rd October 09

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Irish Bar Values Plunge 40% as Pub Culture Mirrors Economy Bust

 

Oct. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Dublin’s Thomas Read Group grew into a chain of more than 20 pubs as Ireland’s economy boomed in the mid 1990s. After real estate prices collapsed and drinkers stayed at home, the bars are being sold off.

 

Property brokers now estimate prices for pubs have sunk as much as 40 percent as Ireland suffered the worst collapse in its modern history. The benchmark ISEQ stock index has lost 48 percent over the past 18 months, with pub supplier C&C Group Plc, the maker of Magners cider, dropping 37 percent.

 

In Ireland, sales are tumbling as unemployment edges beyond 12 percent and taxes rise. That’s amplifying a trend toward drinking at home, started by a 2004 ban on smoking in public places. Bar takings fell 13 percent in August from a year before, according to Ireland’s statistics office.

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Israel Property Market May Lose Top Ranking on Rates

 

Oct. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Israel, the best-performing residential property market this year, may lose its standing after becoming one of the first countries to raise interest rates since the global recession began.

 

Mortgage rates are about 2 percent, according to Mortgage Israel, which says it is the country’s largest home-loan brokerage. The average rate for the past five years was about 5 percent. “A bubble began to emerge this year, fueled by the Bank of Israel,” said Shlomo Maoz, chief economist at Excellence Investments Ltd. in Tel Aviv. “The bank is now beginning to raise rates again to fight inflation.”

 

Israel, located in one of the world’s most volatile regions, has defied the worldwide housing slump because of a dearth of land available for development and tax breaks for investors. Prices rose 12.5 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, double the increase for Switzerland, the second- best performer among countries tracked by London-based property broker Knight Frank LLP.

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U.K. Economy Unexpectedly Shrinks in Longest Slump on Record

Oct. 23 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. gross domestic product unexpectedly dropped in the third quarter as enduring slumps in services, manufacturing and construction kept the economy mired in its longest recession on record.

 

Gross domestic product dropped 0.4 percent from the previous three months, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. Economists predicted a 0.2 percent increase, according to the median of 33 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. The economy has now contracted in six quarters, the most since records began in 1955.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=ahAA.kZx86eQ

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Rationalise,

 

EURGBP - trader effect at that round number 0.90000. Non-random entry point. Often see this on forex.

post-4436-1256290586_thumb.png

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Back in from a morning walk to see GBPUSD cliff dive. When that thing falls out of bed.....

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This is in ref to the accumulation/distribution talk / post by ChicagoBear in M2M...from the 2007 high, down days on expanding volume in red, up days on expanding volume in green (based on high/low not close)...days that are neither are white on white...

post-14-1256300549_thumb.png

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Welcome to the Friday jam session. Neither musical instruments nor talent required to have fun.

 

Seems like the same computer program still running. SPU lows late Japanese morning session and another SPU low about an hour +- after Europe cash opens. Now the drive up into the US cash open.

 

IMO we see the, typical of late, sell down in the SPU within the first hour, the slow or fast, perhaps, move up toward 1100, and then who knows what the afternoon will hold (could be higher or lower since it is too early to tell).

 

Pigmen do not care if others make money, just as long as they make money at the margin. But none of this is new.

 

I still think the character of the market has not yet changed, and can say neither that we have topped nor that we are going higher. Still too many conflicting signals, including the woo-woo types, such as EWave and Carolan's Spiral Calendar, but we seem to be heading out the backside of the predicted windows for a potential top. But of course the pigmen know those predictions/models as well.

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This is in ref to the accumulation/distribution talk / post by ChicagoBear in M2M...[snip]

 

Not part of the discourse thus far is thresholds...all of this price/vol method comes from the old tape readers - Wyckoff the most oft referenced...modern hypsters like Tim Ord believe that a 1 cent extension of the high/low is relevant, and as I recall he uses 10% as the vol criteria...

 

the charts I posted are 1 cent - 5% vol

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Anyone know when the top 20 stocks weighted in the SPX will be finished reporting earnings for the quarter?

 

Seems like it is too easy to jack the market with those particular suspects.

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