psyche doctor Posted September 15, 2009 Report Share Posted September 15, 2009 Mmmm. I don't think that's right. The $200 billion SFP funds on deposit at the Fed are borrowed short term. If they don't pay it back, they have to keep rolling it over. Only if they pay it back would there be no Treasury auctions for a brief time, but the revenue shortfall continues to grow, so it would only be a month or so before they would have to start borrowing heavily again. By telling everyone that they are not going to pay off the TARP, they are, in effect saying flat out that there will be no respite from the debt deluge. That's my initial reaction. Regardless, there is no respite from the debt deluge, right? Debt on top of debt. TARP funds will never fully be repaid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shorty Posted September 15, 2009 Report Share Posted September 15, 2009 b-wave scenario. If not a b-wave, then something else. possibre alternate scenario: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psyche doctor Posted September 15, 2009 Report Share Posted September 15, 2009 possibre alternate scenario: Ha, I really like that one and the potty is very fitting. Hope the alternate is the one! And I think I know what SOL stands for..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldmember Posted September 15, 2009 Report Share Posted September 15, 2009 possibre alternate scenario: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldmember Posted September 15, 2009 Report Share Posted September 15, 2009 Actually, Shorty's chart may well be the finest bit of clairvoyance I've seen. That's exactly my opex target...maybe even a little lower! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phatbubble Posted September 15, 2009 Report Share Posted September 15, 2009 Tonight's CNBC One Year Financial Melt-Down Anniverary Bukakee Party LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psyche doctor Posted September 15, 2009 Report Share Posted September 15, 2009 Actually, Shorty's chart may well be the finest bit of clairvoyance I've seen. That's exactly my opex target...maybe even a little lower! You can see the little wedge. It's a matter of what it does after it falls out of it. Gonna be interesting. Hope your opex target get's hit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phatbubble Posted September 15, 2009 Report Share Posted September 15, 2009 Starting to think we have a shot at a tradeable top this week. Also could imagine 1100 by expiry. Or both. I've been rabbiting on more than usual about astro stuff lately, but this week contains an absolute welter of potential reversal signatures. All we need now to round things out is some Car People. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldmember Posted September 15, 2009 Report Share Posted September 15, 2009 What was that term Doc used to have for the big whipsaw? ...oh ya...it was whopsaw! Inside out day tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted September 15, 2009 Report Share Posted September 15, 2009 Mmmm. I don't think that's right. The $200 billion SFP funds on deposit at the Fed are borrowed short term. If they don't pay it back, they have to keep rolling it over. Only if they pay it back would there be no Treasury auctions for a brief time, but the revenue shortfall continues to grow, so it would only be a month or so before they would have to start borrowing heavily again. By telling everyone that they are not going to pay off the TARP, they are, in effect saying flat out that there will be no respite from the debt deluge. That's my initial reaction. Guess your right to the extent that so much Treasury debt is crammed into the short end. If you can allocate what borrowed dollar goes where, as in these 90 day bills are funding SFP I don't know. Some Treasury flack said in hearings maybe 6 weeks ago there was $300 something billion in unused TARP money. The SFP acronym escapes me. The difference between 200 and 300 billion is pretty significant. That was only half my point however. Forgetting what the deficit impact is there is still the politically impossible fact that Geithner is sitting on a slush fund that he can do anything with. Anything. They are saying for if there is another problem. Do they have a particular problem in mind right now? Probably several. If there are 200 hundred billion sitting around somebody has their eye on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted September 15, 2009 Report Share Posted September 15, 2009 Shorty, I think they wanted to shut Washington down this past weekend. Ya think maybe bernanke might shut the stock market spikot tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alceringa Posted September 15, 2009 Report Share Posted September 15, 2009 If the Treasury says it has the right to keep the money that doesn't mean congress can't pass a law and take it back. Not to put too fine a point on it, but it is not MONEY. It's DEBT that hasn't yet been issued. DEBT is not MONEY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alceringa Posted September 15, 2009 Report Share Posted September 15, 2009 Instead of having 5000 economists on staff what the Fed needs is 5000 anthropologists, clinical psychologists, and historians. Criminologists. Don't forget the Criminologists. And everyone of them should have a stable of FBI trained forensic accountants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psyche doctor Posted September 15, 2009 Report Share Posted September 15, 2009 Not to put too fine a point on it, but it is not MONEY. It's DEBT that hasn't yet been issued. DEBT is not MONEY. In a sense, but in our current monetary system, all money comes from debt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psyche doctor Posted September 15, 2009 Report Share Posted September 15, 2009 Criminologists. Don't forget the Criminologists. And everyone of them should have a stable of FBI trained forensic accountants. What the fed needs, really, is a funeral. Just bury the coffin and get it over with - we don't need no stinkin fed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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