Monthly Digger - September 2009

[Gold Majestic]

Thanks Gold Majestic for the stock suggestions and encouragment. I'm loving it! Dont worry I researched well. Yesterday was really so worried thinking the bears were right now! They must be hurting today and there shorts. Does today mean we broke out of the triangle you been predicting. Can you give your suggestion on what this means. thanks!!!

 

Surfer, as I said before you're catching on quick. But it's a long trip and patience required. Invest in knowledge and don't let any idiot tell you it's not important. The more you understand about your investment, the more successful you'll be. Prechter is a salesman and has been successful with the gullible and foolish "market consensus ignoramuses" that Bearvest claims determine value at any point in time. As I said, RN Elliott would roll over in his grave given the mockery made of his research by these moroons.

 

And today is no different, no matter if you nail a historic bottom on the exact day (Oct 24) when FEAR AND HYSTERIA RULE EMOTION AND TA MOROONS PROJECT MUCH LOWER LOWS with the subsequent outcome of HUGE STOCK GAINS, nobody says a wit. And the same moroons continue with their same perceptions not having learned a single thing.

 

Was today a breakout? Uh . . . yeaahh . . yuh just might say that . . yuh might . .

 

However, while the head scratcher was proclaiming "HUI RECIPE FOR DISASTER!!!," actually the "Disaster Recipe" had already broken out last week and then successfully backtested.

 

Now you know why these confused Prechter groupies pour "Tall" ones.

Have you ever heard anyone claim to be Bullish AND Bearish AT THE SAME TIME? Stick around because that's been a routine event since I've been posting here for 5 years. (And they do it with a straight face? Makes you wonder if these guys are drunk out of their minds all the time?)

[Gold Majestic]

A few more observations on this week's market actions:

 

Since I use a wide parameter of information to assess the status of the Inflation/Dollar-Debasement Beneficiaries, I like to check in from time to time on what some of the "Big Boys" are doing with their money. As posted last Spring, many of these were starting to accumulate Gold (GLD) / Gold Shares, but one thing that has caught my attention over the past couple weeks were the ENORMOUS call spreads from the likes of David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital, Hayman Advisors, Paulson & Co, Eton Park, Blue Ridge Capital, Highfields Capital Management, TPG-Axon, etc.

 

Now when these guys position themselves like this, (and simultaneously we see resident contrary indicators selling calls), today's explosion should have been no surprise at all. As is common, the only surprise was for the "Deflationist" trying to "make dust" (for others, why?) just ends up eating his own (dust).

 

Yes, today, spot gold has managed to exceed both its August peak and (just barely) broken out to the upside of the wedge on the charts. More importantly, VOLUME in both the GLD and GDX is huge and appears to be confirming the breakout.

 

Meanwhile, the dollar is also rolling back over.

[Gold Majestic]

Today’s break out in Gold rolled back the curtain on the “Commodity Deflation” Land of Oz.

 

We heard fearsome growls and horrific screams, but alas ‘twasn’t a Bear at all,

just a lit'le old, angry Chihuahua gnawing on his bone.

[bearvest]

So I'll ask another question to "HUI RECIPE FOR DISASTER" Bearvest who has been so bearish lately, how much did you lose today on the selling of those GG calls? GG is up a whopping 19% over the past 2 weeks since August 17th and a HUGE 300% since the Friday Oct 24th bottom on the exact day I called it.

 

Bearish?

 

I've simply stood aside. And said so repeatedly. Simply in cash. Did a small day trade in the QQQQ's short on Monday.

 

All I see are 3 wave moves---including Wednesday's "pop" which could be a "C" wave.

 

Once Stochastics gets above 80 again and forms a reverse double dip, I'll consider shorting thie P.M.'s.

 

If there's a fundamental reason for this, it was lost on the bond traders who drove interest rates lower in all maturities. It was also lost on the inflationists as the Dolllar, Oil and copper were flat.

 

From what I can see, this was an isolated event in the Gold market. Could be that the large specs decided to raid the COT'S. It was purely a North American event.

[Ageka]

I am getting kind of hatemail from what I guess is a Prechterite

He says my blabla about Edwards and Magee and coiling and breaking out in the direction of entry may be rigth but that

first his belly feeling is we do not break 1000 in this wave and second he is all in cash and I can keep my paper ( miners ) because he is going to buy all physical in the reaction . Yeah one more reaction down Must be Prechters song at the altar .Now that is a method ; bellyfeeling

 

My german is not good enough to tell him politely he is an idiit and that the train is leaving the station once again .

And contrary to GM I do not care about their opinions .

 

By the way GM good charts you post but I am in the choir allready for 9 years now .

 

Seven reminded me that wherever gold may go the next few weeks the return to the apex of the triangle is quiet

possible ( and I think large volatility is quiet possible from here too )

 

In the past miners have had 3x to 5x leverage to gold ; so whilst they are paper this leverage is not to be sneered at

Since the beginning of this years little by little my miners are starting to outperform gold (both in euro)

today they did their 3 to 5 multiplicator ( for the first time in a long time )

 

Yamana and Kinross broke their "downtrend" line and Tre and Drooy are trying to turnaround ; Harmony has turned around

Minefinders was doing so well that a continuation only seems disappointing . Anglogold is anglogold ; just a dividend payer. I might have wished for more great basin but since I bougth at a low I can add shares when that triangle breaks.

[Gold Majestic]

I am getting kind of hatemail from what I guess is a Prechterite

He says my blabla about Edwards and Magee and coiling and breaking out in the direction of entry may be rigth but that

first his belly feeling is we do not break 1000 in this wave and second he is all in cash and I can keep my paper ( miners ) because he is going to buy all physical in the reaction . Yeah one more reaction down Must be Prechters song at the altar .Now that is a method ; bellyfeeling

 

My german is not good enough to tell him politely he is an idiit and that the train is leaving the station once again .

And contrary to GM I do not care about their opinions .

 

By the way GM good charts you post but I am in the choir allready for 9 years now .

 

Seven reminded me that wherever gold may go the next few weeks the return to the apex of the triangle is quiet

possible ( and I think large volatility is quiet possible from here too )

 

In the past miners have had 3x to 5x leverage to gold ; so whilst they are paper this leverage is not to be sneered at

Since the beginning of this years little by little my miners are starting to outperform gold (both in euro)

today they did their 3 to 5 multiplicator ( for the first time in a long time )

 

Yamana and Kinross broke their "downtrend" line and Tre and Drooy are trying to turnaround ; Harmony has turned around

Minefinders was doing so well that a continuation only seems disappointing . Anglogold is anglogold ; just a dividend payer. I might have wished for more great basin but since I bougth at a low I can add shares when that triangle breaks.

 

Ageka, you make an excellent point: ". . .wherever gold may go the next few weeks the return to the apex of the triangle is quiet

possible (and I think large volatility is quiet possible from here too).

 

I'm not opposed to that view of a back test of sorts, and certainly expect the volatility. And I wouldn't mind a retest as I did my buying long ago.

 

As for receiving "hate mail," someone must have posted my stuff over at traders-talk.bs cuz I've received some "wash your mouth out with a bar of soap" messages about the coming commodity deflationary collapse.

 

I considered replying but just too stupid-funny!

[Charmin]

I have been listening to Andrew Gause lately. This weeks interview he talks about how gold and the dollar will be going up at the same time.

You might have to sign in to get "The Real World of Money" show.

 

http://feeds2.feedburner.com/TheRealWorldO...s-WithAndyGause

 

http://www.oneradionetwork2.com/mp3/money/...ember_02_09.mp3

[Gold Majestic]

Bearish?

 

I've simply stood aside. And said so repeatedly. Simply in cash. Did a small day trade in the QQQQ's short on Monday.

 

All I see are 3 wave moves---including Wednesday's "pop" which could be a "C" wave.

 

Once Stochastics gets above 80 again and forms a reverse double dip, I'll consider shorting thie P.M.'s.

 

If there's a fundamental reason for this, it was lost on the bond traders who drove interest rates lower in all maturities. It was also lost on the inflationists as the Dolllar, Oil and copper were flat.

 

From what I can see, this was an isolated event in the Gold market. Could be that the large specs decided to raid the COT'S. It was purely a North American event.

 

OK Bearvest, you correctly accused me of making personal affronts to you, and I confess it's true. But you neglect to mention your own personal affronts to me, such as your ridiculous accusations of me "paying for someone to do my charting" or paying to do my thinking back when I pointed out a different E-Wave count that was quite the opposite from your own.

 

Now you ask Bearish? But actually I said Bearish AND Bullish simultaneously as you often have been over the course of the past 5 years. I guess I can go dig up a few recent posts of yours to support my claim of your bearishness.

 

But first:

 

If there's a fundamental reason for this, it was lost on the bond traders who drove interest rates lower in all maturities. It was also lost on the inflationists as the Dolllar, Oil and copper were flat.

 

BV, "If there's a fundamental reason?" IF?!

 

As I've been explaining here in volumes over the past 5 years, YES THERE ARE MANY FUNDAMENTAL REASONS TO SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT INCREASING MONETARY SUPPLY (THINK ARTIFICIALLY LOW RATES - GREENSPAN'S BUBBLES) LEADS TO A DEPRECIATING DOLLAR (WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY THAT COMMODITIES ARE PRICED IN) LEADS TO FOREIGN NATIONS W/ PEGS TO USD COMPETING TO DEPRECIATE THEIR CURRENCIES FOR EXPORT MARKET WHICH LEADS TO GLOBAL PRICE INFLATION WHICH LEADS TO RISING GOLD/OIL/COMMODITY PRICES/SCOTCH/U-NAME-IT, ETC...

 

Now step back from analyzing "dark clouds" and "squiggle" minutia for a second to view the forest:

Ok do you see it? Do you see what's happened to the price of Oil and Copper since late last year? Up 110% / Up 132% respectively? Yes? Price Inflation maybe? As the US Peso has resumed its downtrend, maybe? Do you see any connection to the USD fundamentals and Gold/Commodities?

 

Let me help you out with your lapse of memory on being "Bearish" by digging up a couple of your recent posts. Hang on just a second . . .

[Charmin]

Like March 18 and some prior volume dayz - today will probably be another one of those supportive days. I don't know if it gets retested though.

[Gold Majestic]

"It was also lost on the inflationists as the Dolllar, Oil and copper were flat."

 

Bearvest, let me add that if the dollar breaks to the downside like I expect, I’d be extremely surprised to see the Bond market continue to rally, because it should in fact decline sharply. But given that the bond market has been repeatedly propped up by the Fed’s monetization efforts, not only Treasuries but MBS and agency debt as well, today's actions doesn't surprise me.

 

We've been discussing that monetization along with the links to the various stories. Where have you been?

 

As for the US Peso, it wasn't flat. It fell half a percent, wiping out about half of yesterday’s bounce. The Dollar Bulls/Dollar-Based Deflationists basically went “all in” yesterday and failed to turn the market up due to avalanche of Dollar sellers.

 

As for Copper and Oil, nothing goes straight up. It's called healthy "consolidation" after BIG moves up.

 

I see the next move (after the usual fakeout shakeouts to throw off the market consensus ignoramuses) to be more of a plunge than a slide. What you ABC Down Commodity Deflation Bears forget (or have no clue) is that the US dollar is the MOST CROWDED TRADE ON THE PLANET BY VIRTUE OF IT BEING THE RESERVE CURRENCY OF WHICH ALL THINGS PRICED. Who knows, maybe China is going to pull the trigger soon after all and go ahead and revalue to curb their nation's problematic PRICE INFLATION? Did you read the post on Japans' election result? Any thoughts Bearvest?

[Gold Majestic]

BV Bearish?

 

I've simply stood aside. And said so repeatedly. Simply in cash. Did a small day trade in the QQQQ's short on Monday.

 

All I see are 3 wave moves---including Wednesday's "pop" which could be a "C" wave.

 

Once Stochastics gets above 80 again and forms a reverse double dip, I'll consider shorting thie P.M.'s.

______________________________________________________________

Now for some fun. I know, a complete waste of time to point this out to Bearvest. Like pointing out what a disaster selling those calls on GG precisely at a cyclical bottom as pointed out to him at that time, before GG ripped another leg up. (Of course he claimed to not have lost any money attempting to cover at the top.)

 

A few recent posts to document BV's "Bearishness."

 

I could go back to Late Oct, Nov, Dec for some REAL "BV" Bearishness. Of course he claims to sell GG calls when he's so bearish!

 

Aug 21 2009, 04:06 AM

ON GOLD:

Caution flags are flying.

There's a red indecisive candle (small body with a long wick and tail) after two days up.

The moving averages crossed down over ever so slightly.

On balance, the chart is neutral---trading above a cloud that is rising, overlap of the prior downtrend, but below the moving averages.

I'd be worried that this is a 3 day bear flag.

(Sounds Bearish to me, Bearvest. Maybe it's the "Crossed down," "Overlap of prior trend," "Caution Flags Flying," "I'd Be Worried," "3 Day Bear Flag.").

 

(Example of Simultaneous BULL AND BEAR)

Aug 21 2009, 04:06 AM

On HUI:

The second chart shows a market that has been compressing in a series of 3 wave patterns that I've labelled as "abc" at one degree of trend larger .

An impulsive break out from the triangle (in one direction or the other) should signal the market's direction for several months.

(In other words, UP IF UP AND DOWN IF DOWN. How many times do we always hear that coming from you Bearvest?)

 

(Another Example of Simultaneous BULL AND BEAR)

Aug 24 2009, 11:01 PM

ON GOLD:

The daily Ichimoku chart shows that since the beginning of August, Gold has been in a downward corrective pattern. We have seen a pattern of 2 lower lows and 2 lower highs----all overlapping. (Bearish)

Gold is trading above the cloud---which is (Bullish,) but the moving averages have bearishly crossed over (Bearish).

 

Stochastics may be setting up a "double dip" back below 20. (Bearish)

 

(Never went "back below 20, instead went screaming UP above 80. I.e., just plain WRONG.)

 

(More Mumbo Jumbo Indecisiveness but still Bearish)

Aug 25th

Overlaps:

I have often posted Elliott charts emphasizing the importance of overlaps in the wave count.

 

Candlesticks confirm my concern with sentiment analysis. (Bearish)

Friday's gap into a doji was a classic northren star. The candle gapped up, but with no body and equal tails and wicks. The shorts were caught short on a bull raid---but that was all. (Still Bearish)

The reversal huge red candle occurred Monday. But note the long tail. (Still Bearish)

 

The bulls seem to want to make a stand at 91.64.

Above that, they have the ascendency. (Bullish)

 

Overlap 90.81, and we have to consider that the downtrend is still in play. (Bearish)

 

Aug 26th

On the HUI:

 

Wishing to avoid a diatribe, I'll simply post a chart explaining why I'm simply waiting and watching.

 

There are conflicting patterns in the chart---a possible triangle or large pennant in play or a potential head and shoulders under construction. (Again Indecisive playing both sides of the fence = confused)

 

MACD and Stochastics are dead Neutral. (Playing both sides of fence again)

 

The last 3 candles show price rejection at about 364-65 but equilibrium at 358. (Again)

 

If we break lower, I'd watch for a failed head and shoulders pattern at the mid-330's and Stochastics under 20. That's consistent with my intermediate view. A violation of that level would call for a re-test of 300 and possibly the April lows at 270.

(The BIG "IF" as usual) ("Consistent with intermediate view - stochastics under 20 - Bearish) (Possible retest of HUI 270 - Very Bearish).

 

A close above 370 would tend to affirm my bullish count and would call for a measured move of about 100 points. (Now Bullish, thus always maintaining a "Bullish count" as well as a "Bearish count." What good is this kind of INDECISIVE TA for making money?)

 

The risk/reward is too great here---but it will shortly change. (Bearish but will change to Bullish)

 

From an Elliott standpoint, the April/May rally was a clear 5 wave impulse up. Since then, we've contracted in a series of overlapping 3 wave abc's. I don't want to enter in the middle of a corrective pattern. (Bearish)

 

"It's (HUI) a recipe for disaster." (VERY BEARISH)

 

Aug 28 2009, 11:34 PM

Deflation/Inflation?

 

I just watch the charts.

 

I'm very dubious that a huge triangle breakout would start with a short-bodied filled black candle. (Bearish- doesn't think breakout can happen)

 

I think we have to watch the conflicting triangles. The Black triangle could merely be the 4th or "d" wave. As I've mentioned before, the waves in the red triangle all appear to be ABC moves. (Bearish)

 

Meanwhile, I'm out of the market and can leisurely sip my Scotch.

 

(OUT OF A SECULAR BULL MARKET IN GOLD?? Sorry Bearvest, but YOU ARE BEARISH AS CAN BE SO PLAINLY SEEN FROM YOUR VERY RECENT POSTS! And every time you've been bearish, you've claimed, much after the fact, to have sold calls if that bearishness occurred at tops which more often than not has occurred at bottoms. Which leads us to understand that you have been creamed with your ill-advised selling of GG calls since Oct. '08!)

[Ageka]

As for receiving "hate mail," someone must have posted my stuff over at traders-talk.bs cuz I've received some "wash your mouth out with a bar of soap" messages about the coming commodity deflationary collapse.

 

I considered replying but just too stupid-funny!

 

Well I only received love mail when I was still posting there because they wanted more private charts then I had

time to make . So I was never surprised to see my ideas with anothers name above the post .

Now I spend that time on playing video games . it is an excellent way to while away the dead parts

of goldsummer

[Gold Majestic]

Ok Bearvest, I'm done. I'll lay off the descriptions (personal affronts). I'll just keep them as general as possible so as not to offend any specific anonymous person that posts here. You have your strong points and of course are right at times. And I'm wrong at times. We just disagree on almost everything under the sun related to investment philosophies. Seems no hope of bridging that ocean. No point in finding fault / debating opposing styles.

[Gold Majestic]

Well I only received love mail when I was still posting there because they wanted more private charts then I had

time to make . So I was never surprised to see my ideas with anothers name above the post .

Now I spend that time on playing video games . it is an excellent way to while away the dead parts

of goldsummer

Well can't beat that . . like the sound of "Love Mail" instead of the alternative.

[Gold Majestic]

one of gms former recommendations mmg has built a big base over the last months and it is starting to move out

dharma

 

Slide 24, the 3D silver view is especially awesome. Really brings out the grade and 2km length. The silver side really is bigger (at least longer) than the Zn.

 

Metalline Mining Company Announces

Initial Silver Cyanide Leach Results Positive at Sierra Mojada

Coeur d'Alene, Idaho – Metalline Mining Company (MMG: NYSE Amex) is pleased to

announce very positive initial cyanide

 

Metalline Mining Company announces

Silver and Zinc Oxide Block Models Indicates World Class Potential at Sierra

Mojada

Coeur d’Alene, Idaho -- Metalline Mining Company (NYSE Amex: MMG) announced

that the most recent block model for its project at Sierra Mojada, Mexico indicates the

potential for a zinc oxide deposit of World Class size.

 

Metalline Mining Sierra Mojada Project (as of 6/16/2009)

 

http://www.pitecreative.com/staging/metallinemovie.html

 

http://www.metalin.com/presentations.html