ChicagoBear Posted June 12, 2009 Report Share Posted June 12, 2009 I am lucky enough to have a 180 unobstructed western view of Lake Travis.... Laser Rock got nuthin' on the show I just witnessed! Some of the fattest lightning strikes I've ever seen. Here is one I managed to catch a few min ago. I circled some large houses for reference size. And there were ones much bigger. Sweeet!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChicagoBear Posted June 12, 2009 Report Share Posted June 12, 2009 Some think the spx looks like a cup & handle here http://www.tsptalk.com/comments.html I’ve been looking at that too. I can see a cup and handle as well as a severe double bottom (green lines). Triple bottoms are usually faulty, and if one wants to get really technical, I can count a series of 6 lower lows off the top before we bottomed. Regardless of whether this is a cup/handle or a double-bottom/handle, the pivot points are about the same (943 off the double-bottom and 930 off the handle). We are above those now. I was taught not to apply bases to the indices even thought you can still see them (psychology isn’t as acute v. an individual stock). The volumes on the weekly chart should be enough to read whether more money is coming into the market or out. When you look at the left side of this base, selling volume is heavier than the buying on the right side of the base. This makes me think that the buying volume is just petering-out in the handle, when we should be watching the selling volume shrink as they shake-out the last sellers. Bottom line - I don’t have a good read on this. A 40% vault in 14 weeks is unprecedented in my experience. If I were to read this like a normal base, I would say it was too radical and probably faulty. I would want to see a base that is shorter in duration, tighter in the price spreads, and with greater buying volume on the right side. The thing that bothers me is this little voice in the back of my head that keeps telling me that the fix is in. I hate conspiracy theories, but we know the dire circumstances the government is in. They had to intervene in so many markets to keep them from collapsing that it should not be surprising if they were intervening here also. The fact that the “Obama Buy” came in on March 4 (2 days before the bottom) is a little more than unsettling. It also seems to me that with the recession (i.e. depression) kicking, and unemployment exploding, the only chance they have of kick-starting the economy is to get money back into the consumer’s hands (blow another bubble). One way to do this would be to inflate the stock market, revive everyone’s 201k’s, IRA’s, and other investments, with the added benefit of helping to save the pension funds. I’m sorry about posting this crap, but at least I think it could be dangerous to a bear’s health to ignore the possibility. With the printing presses cranked-up, and money being returned to the government by the financial institutions, and looking at the buying volume over the past 14 weeks, there can be no doubt that money is going into the market. I think this is a very pivotal point to watch. If we get a huge volume a$$-blast tomorrow (aka Shorty style “Scamjamfraudpumpshowgoosegreeprintsqueezerally”), and the weekly volume for this week goes up from last week, then we will be seeing a breakout regardless of what I think about the bases. I’m not backing that government intervention theory – just throwing it out for you to consider. Regardless, the money is coming from somewhere. My guess is that the next move is down: either this bear market rally will lose its legs, or we’ll at least pull-back and form a better handle where we’ll see the selling volume taper-off (before making another run at the 943 pivot). But if we do break-out from this point, watch out for the mother of all rallies to continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 12, 2009 Report Share Posted June 12, 2009 It Ain’t How It Looks - Professional Edition by Lee Adler, Thursday, June 11, 2009, in Today's Markets | Permalink |Comments (0) Edit The Fed bought just over $10 billion in Treasuries this week. Given the light supply of new paper, it’s surprising that the market took until Thursday to rally. The Fed will be buying GSE paper on Friday, and because supply will be light again next week, and the Fed will probably be buying another $10-15 billion in Treasuries and Agencies, the bond market will have another excuse to rally; which of course the pundits will interpret as a “flight to safety.” Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Wave Rider Posted June 12, 2009 Report Share Posted June 12, 2009 Bottom line - I don't have a good read on this. A 40% vault in 14 weeks is unprecedented in my experience. If I were to read this like a normal base, I would say it was too radical and probably faulty. I would want to see a base that is shorter in duration, tighter in the price spreads, and with greater buying volume on the right side. This is the chart I have seen that worries me the most from a bearish perspective... The fact that the oscillator has already turned up is fairly hard to ignore based upon 100 years of history..... source http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=107070 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roxy Posted June 12, 2009 Report Share Posted June 12, 2009 <h2 class="post-title">It Ain’t How It Looks - Professional Edition</h2> by Lee Adler, Thursday, June 11, 2009, in Today's Markets | Permalink |Comments (0) Edit The Fed bought just over $10 billion in Treasuries this week. Given the light supply of new paper, it’s surprising that the market took until Thursday to rally. The Fed will be buying GSE paper on Friday, and because supply will be light again next week, and the Fed will probably be buying another $10-15 billion in Treasuries and Agencies, the bond market will have another excuse to rally; which of course the pundits will interpret as a “flight to safety.” Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information. Something's wrong with the link on the site itself. Doc, please check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quanta Posted June 12, 2009 Report Share Posted June 12, 2009 This is the chart I have seen that worries me the most from a bearish perspective... The fact that the oscillator has already turned up is fairly hard to ignore based upon 100 years of history..... source http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=107070 100 years... And GM was just replaced by who??? Just sayin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quanta Posted June 12, 2009 Report Share Posted June 12, 2009 More in the UFB category Tories call in Mounties over mint's missing millions CHRISTOPHER PIKE FOR THE TORONTO STAR Employees work June 8, 2009 at the Royal Canadian Mint in Ottawa, where there are worries security could have been breached following the revelation that a large amount of precious metals recorded on the books is missing. The mint uses gold, silver, platinum and palladium in its operations. Canada's money-makers can't find tens of millions in precious metals that are shown on the books Jun 09, 2009 03:05 PM The Star Looks like a job for PotatoeHead. Imagine taking on a Mint! Better expand those vaults, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Wave Rider Posted June 12, 2009 Report Share Posted June 12, 2009 You gotta luv it...some horse traders from Texas take the big boys to the cleaners... http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2009/0...to_lose_on.html It appears from the WSJ account as if little Amherst Holdings of Austin, Texas was happy to sell the big guys like J.P. Morgan Chase, Royal Bank of Scotland, and Bank of America something like $130 million notional CDS on a $27 million credit event, used the proceeds to buy off and make good the underlying subprime loans, and pocketed $70 million or so for their troubles. The big guys, on the other hand, paid perhaps a hundred million and got back zip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phatbubble Posted June 12, 2009 Report Share Posted June 12, 2009 jick- Please find below the chart of FAZ showing OBV divergence. But for this item to multiply roughly 12 fold to reach your target, I am not sure that will be possible. For argument's sake let's say this item increases 5% every day. This will have to compound over 50 days to come close to your target! As you very well know this is not a real stock, it is a dang derivative. For FAZ to reach 54 from here, RIFIN would need to lose 5% a day for 18 days in a row, i.e. going from 654 to 260 before July opex. If the angle & duration of descent isn't this steep, RIFIN would need to go much lower, to offset the leverage slippage in FAZ. This would be, uh, pretty extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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