jickiss Posted May 30, 2009 Report Share Posted May 30, 2009 jickiss is back! jickiss is back! and Short F and Dong GM. down to the wire? http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idU...l=0&sp=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jickiss Posted May 30, 2009 Report Share Posted May 30, 2009 jickiss is back! jickiss is back! and, in a Chart, here is the Idea called Short F and Dong GM..... well? GM is left with Cadillac, Buick and Chevrolet. This gives them a chance to raise quality at Cadillac, Market Buick in Asia, and to compete in Electric cars, Corvette, and Trucks via Chevrolet. Unions will pull back from suicide missions against the firm, Bond guys will want an equity advance workout Pols have provided coin, so they want to bow for a save, later, if possilbe, and is the real plan to do more between GM and China, who has the doolar funds to pay for whatever they might want to participate in, longer term, in particular the sale of cars to their own consumers. Remember, the time to have shorted GM was a long time ago. 75 cent GM was the bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jickiss Posted May 30, 2009 Report Share Posted May 30, 2009 jickiss is back! jickiss is back! and how about a buy in RE over in ASIA, as a method of diversifying your doolar holdings.... Trader Joe, maybe you will swap Jersey for a nice place Half Way Around the World. exotic, and nice, too...... http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/27/greathom...;pagewanted=all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
howard in nyc Posted May 30, 2009 Report Share Posted May 30, 2009 tim duy analyzes the yield curve in a nice piece So we are stuck with two apparently contrasting views. On one hand, rising long rates and the related steepening of the yield curve should indicate improving economic conditions - after all, rising yields simply imply that market participants are gaining confidence to put their money to work in more risky endeavors. The steeper yield curve should boost bank earnings and, in time, encourage lending. On the other hand, higher yields may undermine support for the housing market, thus extending the downturn. The Wall Street Journal believes the Fed is choosing the positive spin: Federal Reserve officials believe the recent sharp rise in yields on U.S. Treasury bonds could reflect a mending economy and a receding risk of financial catastrophe, suggesting the central bank won't rush to react -- even though some investors see danger in the government's rising cost of borrowing. The WSJ is most likely correct. Indeed, I too want to believe the first story; the steep yield curve should be a clear signal that economic activity is poised to soar. Two things are holding me back. First, the 10-2 spread went positive in mid-2007, which should have indicated that the expected Fed easing later that year would catch fire and the economy would be clear of recession territory by mid-2008. Oops - the signal was premature. Something was different (just as I had come to embrace the yield curve's signals). My second concern is that rising yields indicate capital is fleeing the US, and the shape of the yield curve is being influenced significantly by shifts in patterns of foreign central bank purchases. And while the resulting depreciation of the Dollar will support US growth over time, the transition can be very disruptive. Interestingly, the Wall Street Journal story quoted above does not point to this possibility. As Brad Setser highlights, the current dynamic is eerily similar to that of late 2007 and early 2008. In hindsight, this should have been anticipated. more interesting thoughts there, and in the embedded link to setser's blog. and, yes, doc. us subscribers to the wall street examiner have been on top of this, thanks to your fine work. as usual. thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwd Posted May 30, 2009 Report Share Posted May 30, 2009 Seriously .. if I were ASStilla I would give up, and go do other things. Maybe flip burgers or stack shelves. I'm not sure I could handle being wrong so often. "I expect a negative close tomorrow [Friday], and a gap down on Monday. The following sector [iYR] should lead the market on the downside in all time frames." Atilla's chart after Thursday's close: And here's Friday's action in IYR: Wait .. it gets worse: http://www.marketguru.com/Atilla DisaSSter. Attila only down 73% this year, is that a lot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwd Posted May 30, 2009 Report Share Posted May 30, 2009 Step back from the situation and think about how to make money from it. If Atilla is always wrong, then fade him. Being wrong all the time about the market is just as precious as being right all the time. Just like the sports betting pool or fantasy sports league around the office. It's just as difficult to get it all wrong as it is to get it all right. First place is as difficult to achieve as last. I think he is a permabear who couldn't believe the market would go against him plus he used poor money management, which put together, equal a wipeout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwd Posted May 30, 2009 Report Share Posted May 30, 2009 hey kwaver, bonds say we could be at a critical point... or not. Welcome back. Where have you been? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shorty Posted May 30, 2009 Report Share Posted May 30, 2009 Western security experts suggest that Washington's best strategy may be to resist getting egged into action by North Korea's talk. "North Korea is talking war but planning how to best avoid it while maintaining the maximum international turmoil," David Fulghum, senior military editor of Aviation Week, said in a statement. "The rationale, believe U.S. analcysts and military officials, is that constant provocation of the West is the only road to relevance." Perhaps the rationale is to launch an assault on South Korea. You know, the one that the North has spent decades planning and preparing for. With relatively little to lose, the seven-million man army might just find the opportunity to rape and pillage their wealthy neighbors too much to resist. An estimated 28,000 U.S. troops are stationed in South Korea. Gen. George Casey, the Army chief of staff, said this week that the U.S. would need about 90 days to get more troops to the region if called up. Let's see....seven million hungry soldiers on a 90-day looting free-for-all, no big deal. And I suppose war would be bullish for U.S. stocks. At least a good diversion from our $70 Trillion Debt non-issue. So it's all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psyche doctor Posted May 30, 2009 Report Share Posted May 30, 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snorkels4 Posted May 31, 2009 Report Share Posted May 31, 2009 look at this guys blog archive on left of page. pretty good counting and looks like yours thanks http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/2...ght-e-spot.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted May 31, 2009 Report Share Posted May 31, 2009 jickiss is back! jickiss is back! and, in a Chart, here is the Idea called Short F and Dong GM..... well? GM is left with Cadillac, Buick and Chevrolet. This gives them a chance to raise quality at Cadillac, Market Buick in Asia, and to compete in Electric cars, Corvette, and Trucks via Chevrolet. Unions will pull back from suicide missions against the firm, Bond guys will want an equity advance workout Pols have provided coin, so they want to bow for a save, later, if possilbe, and is the real plan to do more between GM and China, who has the doolar funds to pay for whatever they might want to participate in, longer term, in particular the sale of cars to their own consumers. Remember, the time to have shorted GM was a long time ago. 75 cent GM was the bottom. I asked on IDS Friday who on earth it was that might be selling this POS so late in the imminent-bankruptcy cycle... and who on earth it was who might be buying this POS so late in that same cycle. I am way-y-y-y-y too stoolpid to understand the circumstances in which one wants to buy common stock in an industrial behemoth with massive legacy expenses within 48 hours of bankruptcy. I am all ears on this. I would love to understand it. Common is dead money in this thing as far as I can tell.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwd Posted May 31, 2009 Report Share Posted May 31, 2009 I asked on IDS Friday who on earth it was that might be selling this POS so late in the imminent-bankruptcy cycle... and who on earth it was who might be buying this POS so late in that same cycle. I am way-y-y-y-y too stoolpid to understand the circumstances in which one wants to buy common stock in an industrial behemoth with massive legacy expenses within 48 hours of bankruptcy. I am all ears on this. I would love to understand it. Common is dead money in this thing as far as I can tell.... I would think some may have sold to establish a tax loss and obviously some think the bottom is in for a while and others are just scalping. Some are buying to close out shorts.There is no stock available for retail customers at Schwab to short. I tried to short some when it popped up to 1.92 a week or two ago. I hope this helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shorty Posted May 31, 2009 Report Share Posted May 31, 2009 I see a lot of retail locations and office space being vacated and available for lease. More than I've ever seen before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rationalize Posted May 31, 2009 Report Share Posted May 31, 2009 I see a lot of retail locations and office space being vacated and available for lease. More than I've ever seen before. More than after Dot Con? There was lots of "hip young dynamic" empty office space after Dot Con. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shorty Posted May 31, 2009 Report Share Posted May 31, 2009 I think if they lie by 100,000 plus back-revise by 100,000 plus hire another 100,000 temporary gov't "workers" then they can print the monthly new unemployment count under 400,000 this time. Then they can goose a showrocket megabonar and declare the "recession" over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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