Gold Majestic Posted May 7, 2009 Report Share Posted May 7, 2009 I'm back, now that XAU is over 124. Other areas have been more active for trading. Been slowly accumulating for many weeks now. XAU 124 support lends a good base to launch an attack on the 200 week sma. Looking for gold to move into new high this year (guesstimate $1200). It gave the commode 'heads-up' in November/December last year. CCI has bottomed and several components in process of pushing North. Should be quite bullish esp. now that Euro is above 1.33. Main indices getting overbought and looking for next leg down beginning this month, perhaps. Below spx 898 will be the first signal that is underway. Emerging markets and some Asian ones (S Korea, China, Taiwan) in much more constructive bull mode. Tnx - appreciate your take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gold Majestic Posted May 7, 2009 Report Share Posted May 7, 2009 News of major significance that separates the wheat from the chaff: Last night Bank of China's veiled comments about the dollar were released in its Quarterly Monetary Policy Report. When (not If) the PBOC allows the yuan to rise vs. the dollar to thwart the inflation threat, the action will have powerfully negative implications for both the USD and T-Bond market. "If central banks cannot mop up the huge liquidity when economic recovery comes through, asset bubbles and inflation may once again be triggered." "Furthermore, inflation has become a global phenomenon in recent years, and a policy mistake at one major central bank could create inflation risks for the whole world," the PBOC said. http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/8492155 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dharma Posted May 7, 2009 Report Share Posted May 7, 2009 welcome back meta here are some talking charts http://broadcast.ino.com/education/gold_200905/?campaignid=3 dharma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gold Majestic Posted May 7, 2009 Report Share Posted May 7, 2009 yes, i follow it w/my french curves, we are very early here. the biggest gains come in the shortest amount of time. gm-you can always get one of those external cards w/the antena , they work well. sprint etc. this game is about loss of confidence and when i was a child, the saying was, the dollar is as good as gold. now, that perception is eroding rapidly. there is no fever like gold fever and it will start after the summer in wav3 of 3. i think there is 3-5 years left in this move. the facade continues. today, wfc, c, and bac need to borrow more than many countries net worth and that is just to have adequate cash for the stress tests. it goes on and on. gm, while you can, keep your ideas flowing. here is one of mine @some point they will value juniors as they did internet stocks. not knowing how much ore is in the ground or what the ore will be worth. it will be breathtaking. this all takes some vision and having seen it before. there is nothing new under the sun. You take the blue pill, the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill, you stay in Wonderland, and I show you how deep the rabbit hole goes." "Morpheus in The Matrix dharma "i think there is 3-5 years left in this move" That and I think much longer. "here is one of mine @some point they will value juniors as they did internet stocks. not knowing how much ore is in the ground or what the ore will be worth. it will be breathtaking. this all takes some vision and having seen it before. there is nothing new under the sun" Whole-heartedly agree. Here's a recap of some of Gold's bullish pillars of support (I think we've covered all of these at some point over the last several years.) A. Global monetary and fiscal reflation will remain necessary for years to come a. because of the recession since Q4 '07 (requires fiscal deficits - currently unprecedented 8% of GDP-shadowstats / Monetary Base has blown up since Sept '08 in unprecedented huge dog-leg up/ support housing market / unlimited printing capabilities, etc.), b. because of the great baby-boomer retirement wave / growing medicare/medicaid / soc security / gov spending, etc c. Choices are renege / cut services by downsizing / raise taxes / OR just print more money (we've already seen their path) d. We know that global liquidity drives gold with a tight correlation B. Global imbalances remain requiring the dollar to adjust (Asia, Middle East-oil, Canada, Europe, Mexico, S. America, etc) (As a result, the RMB needs to adjust higher against the USD back below 6 before the peg was put in place in 95 at ~8+) (Asian FX reserves have gone parabolic since '01 up to current 1.9 trillion) C. Global FX reserves are enormously excessive requiring diversification out of dollars into SDRs, gold, commodities, other currencies (Toxic Sub-prime has changed FCB's attitudes: China announcing its gold reserves have increased to 1000 tonnes, Russia wants gold part of SDR basket, etc.) (example: China w/ 1.9 trillion reserves would need to buy 11,000 tonnes just to get to 15% gold reserves) D. Central bank attitudes towards gold are changing (China's recent reclassification of gold as money / could buy any IMF gold sold, etc.) E. Gold is still cheap especially as it takes on an official "monetary role" again (Again China, etc.) (Gold is still cheap in real dollars / needs to get to $2,300 plus just to equal 1980 high.) (To cover M2 Gold would have to = $7,000, etc) F. Gold supply will remain constrained as supply continues to contract (World production has continued to fall significantly year after year since 1999 for the obvious reasons) G. Gold investment demand is in a long-term uptrend stimulated by fears of currency debasement and inflation (World consumer demand, Investment demand, ETF demand all continuing to grow even last year despite credit debacle) (Global commodities investment - including gold- is only 250 Billion - To put that in perspective, compare that with 180 Trillion in Global Financial and Managed Assets) H. The commodity cycle will last many years beyond this recession (So far Gold at 9 years is shortest ever Bull cycle.) (1814-1854 - 40 years Gold Bull cycle) (1870-1902 - 32 years Gold Bull cycle) (1920-1934- 14 years Gold Bull cycle) (1970-1980 - 10 years Gold Bull cycle) I. The geopolitical environment favors gold (a nuclear Iran, a Taliban nuclear armed Pakistan, a civil war in Afghanistan, North Korea pain in the *ss, Israel bombs Iran?, war w/ Syria?, etc. Ex., In '79 Iranian hostage crisis / Russians in Afghanistan Gold doubled from $400-$800) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ageka Posted May 7, 2009 Report Share Posted May 7, 2009 I am fully invested in my buy and hold and my trading portfolios Anglogold thanked me with 15% in two days but I got aprox 30 more days till the intermidiate top around 107 days (day 76 today ) so I am not "trading" yet I think major tops will be jan 2010 and maybe dec 2011 but there ends my "planning" sofar In the meantime I am amusing myself with buying some more coins as close to melt as possible . Or as rare as possible . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dharma Posted May 7, 2009 Report Share Posted May 7, 2009 gm and ageka, the nice thing is , if we are alive it will be quite apparent when this will end-verticality. on that i am certain. it is like watching corn grow. the psychology is what i watch along w/the charts and we have come along way from 99 or 01 . right here i am looking @1k , but i am not stuck , i will let the market tell me. it definitely has developed a nice base over the last 14 months. from a big base you can build a skscrapper. not liking today's action one bit. key reversal day in many issues . key reversal in the broads. lightened up a bit dharma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whadda I Do Whadda I Do Posted May 7, 2009 Report Share Posted May 7, 2009 Gold obviously is not in breakaway mode today. TBT and SRS give a little comfort as I take part of profits and leg into them. As base metals and energy stockpiles are at capacity that leaves only warring or inflation to support the prices if it were left to demand the prices would fall. Had profits on latest mining trades but decided any pullback would be shallow so let them ride except TCK which I might be so brave as to reenter. To bad I was just watching PAL. Regular markets seem to be pricing some pending news releases, I don't think the pump is out of gas yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gold Majestic Posted May 7, 2009 Report Share Posted May 7, 2009 CBS GONE WILD What has been the familiar pattern here? Fed monetizes, then BOE monetizes which in turn green lights the Fed to further monetize, and so forth. Quantitative easing remains alive and well, and of course, very gold friendly. U.K.’s Royal Mint Uses 75% More Gold as Investor Demand Expands http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...BU&refer=uk BOE to make more bond purchases http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bd71d31e-3aec-11...?nclick_check=1 Trichet Says ECB Agrees on $81 Billion Bond Plan (Update3) http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ageka Posted May 7, 2009 Report Share Posted May 7, 2009 I sold half of Drooy bought at 51 for 66 on euronext brussels The weekly cycle and slow stochs are coming nicely along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gold Majestic Posted May 7, 2009 Report Share Posted May 7, 2009 Chart Update and Comments: We can see the inverse correlation between the USD and the S&P 500. Since December, as the dollar moved up peaking on March 9th, the SPX fell bottoming on March 9th. Since March 9th the USD has been falling and the SPX has been rising. The 30-Year Treasury Yield has also been rising since mid-December reacting to the Fed’s reflationary efforts. A falling bond market is a big negative for the dollar and the USD finally started to reflect that on March 9th. Concerning Gold, it was severely over-sold in Oct/Nov due to the Hedge Fund deleveraging and fear winning out over reason, and was due for a big bounce. But since the expected bounce from the Oct/Nov double bottom into late December, Gold has been correlated to the 30-Year Treasury yields again. Gold Investment demand will increasingly take it cue from the 30-yr yield, and we can see from the chart , the 30-Yr Treasury Yield broke out to the upside in Mid April. As the CB’s quantitative easing continues, the 30 Year Treasury Bond continues to fall (witness today’s Treasury Bond Auction Flop). This puts the Fed in a bind to continue aggressively monetizing the ever-increasing debt going forward, especially as demand from nations such as China continues to fall. The Market Consensus is usually slow to “Get It” but eventually does and then reacts in spades. The continued rise in the Gold/Bond RATIO screams “INFLATION!” and will eventually get the Market Consensus’ attention igniting a WHOLE NEW ROUND of INVESTMENT DEMAND for GOLD. PATIENCE IS KEY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gold Majestic Posted May 8, 2009 Report Share Posted May 8, 2009 Bollinger Bands (BBs) and %B are extremely helpful in allowing us to measure volatility across all time frames. As you can see on the "GOLD DAILY PRESENT" chart, we're currently witnessing the volatility compressing or what I refer to as "THE BIG SQUEEZE." We're also seeing "Positive Divergence" on %B which historically means we're entering BLAST OFF territory. Check out the historical Gold weekly charts I provided and notice the pattern that occurred prior to each "BLAST OFF" IN GOLD. We're witnessing the same pattern now. On an intermediate term basis, we're very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gold Majestic Posted May 8, 2009 Report Share Posted May 8, 2009 The major point I've attempted to drive home is that given the massive Global Reflation actions we're in the throws of observing, the reality continues to be that the world financial system is reliquifying but won't have the expected outcome that those whom understand this may think. Instead of reviving "asset price" inflation in the US economy and world economies that CBs are hoping for, instead will engender "commodity price" inflation manifested in basic commodities (being demanded by Asia as we're seeing w/ copper, etc), oil, food, basic goods, etc. This will be a direct consequence of the monetary inflation avalanche, ie. ECB, BOE, US FED monetizing Bond markets for their objectives. This is occurring now, "This is it!" as Uncle Jimmie and his CIGArs keep chanting. Gold is on the launch pad. To fuel this flight to inflation hedges, there's still a tremendous amount of money sitting on the sidelines in cash equivalents that missed the March 9th launch of the broad markets. The exit door is very small and this cash will seek out inflation hedges. Global commodities incl Gold only add up to $250 Billion compared with Global Financial and Managed Assets that equal up to $180 Trillion. The problem that those on the sidelines face (including investors and institutional investors) is that they're waiting for THE pullback as their "green light" to move out of bonds/notes/bills back into stocks (inflation/debasement sectors will be choice) before the (anticipated) economic recovery becomes too evident. Again, I think the recession has much longer to play out (given the occasional reprieves), but that the avalanche of monetary stimulus no longer being soaked up by FCBs will provide plenty of ammunition for a flight to inflation hedges. i.e., stagflationary-recession. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whadda I Do Whadda I Do Posted May 8, 2009 Report Share Posted May 8, 2009 Heplful hints from recent GoldSeek.com article. • Good management with a proven track record • Cash, and an ability to use it frugally • Ability to raise cash under good terms • Properties in safe jurisdictions, i.e.. not Venezuela or Pakistan etc... • Proven resources of preferably over two million ounces in the measured and indicated category • Room to increase the size of the resource, or a resource open in at least one direction with favourable geology I can find locations and ounces but everything else is a roll of the dice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gold Majestic Posted May 8, 2009 Report Share Posted May 8, 2009 Apologize in Advance - Can't Help myself. But I keep hearing Prechterites gloat over his call last March on Gold. This guy has been making many, many calls, year after year on Gold since 1982, and they've all been wrong. Finally he gets a turning point correct in March but not anywhere close to the magnitude he projected. Since 1982, year after year even when his counts were proven wrong, Prechter continued calling for Gold to collapse to $103. I remember reading his "Crest of the Tidal Wave / Forecast For The Great Bear Market" (DOW to 400) in his 2000 edition. In this updated 2000 book edition, he was still calling for $103! Well, we saw what Gold did in 2000, JUST THE OPPOSITE OF HIS E-WAVE COUNT, RISING TO $1,033! What does that say about E-Wave TA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
faramir Posted May 8, 2009 Report Share Posted May 8, 2009 Anyone have concerns with how GTU (gold ETF) trades and is managed? Is this just too volatile a stock to be using as a vehicle to hold gold? It lost $4.00 yesterday. Why would the managers of GTU have cash issued from CIBC at $36.30, which was more than $4 lower than current market price? May 6, 2009 -- Central GoldTrust (Toronto:GTU-UN.TO - News)(Toronto:GTU-U.TO - News)(AMEX:GTU - News) of Ancaster, Ontario announced today that it has entered into an underwriting agreement with CIBC, as underwriter, under which the underwriter has agreed to buy and sell to the public in Canada (except Quebec) and the United States under the multijurisdictional disclosure system, 4,825,000 Units of Central GoldTrust. The Underwriter has been granted the right to increase the size of the offering (the "Right") by up to an additional 690,000 Units, exercisable in whole or in part, at any point prior to 4:00 p.m. (EST) on May 6, 2009. The offering will be made under a second prospectus supplement to Central GoldTrust's U.S.$250,000,000 base shelf prospectus dated December 19, 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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