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wndysrf

Polesmoked

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Mark?s Market Commentary ? January 30, 2003

 

Another bad day for the hopers. Amazing how the sheeple get polesmoked daily on these FOMC hysteria jams. Notice how the fear gauges failed to move very much. Can you blame them? Who needs to be afraid when another Repo Blast is just around the corner?

 

Looks like KLAC and MXIM took out the December lows, but AMAT, NVLS, CYMI, and some others are still ?hoping? for a last minute casting call.

 

Note how AOL?s $99 billion airball was good for about a $2 loss on the shares today. Yet another bull market icon discredited.

 

Caution needs to be exercised, since the 1.4 billion volume numbers were not too impressive. Gap down tomorrow? Who knows.

 

Buddha was absent today, deciding to exit the Arena Box and take a break from the ongoing madness. But he has a question to be answered: When does the quiet period start. When do the warnings and earnings misses cease until next quarter?

 

?Please enlighten me, when is the official end to this 'earnings' season? Everyday there is repeated distortion and noise about when it is 'winding down'. Same with warnings season. Its all a game. Fact is irrefutable. Starter pistols going off all over the place. Gamers sell off this Pig during warnings season and then run it up just prior to earnings announcements. Sounds like earnings season is finally off which means Hunt For Red February begins now. The end of the month greased pigrun isn't happening today which is bearish in my opinion. When does warnings season officially begin? Reason I ask is due to financial news distortion, retail is never told until you are already well into it.?

 

?After the fact, when the Market starts selling down hard in February, hapless Eddie Bauers will be told that "warnings season is not favorable to stocks" over the printouts on their Nokia walkie talkies. Much better that people simply be told ahead of time, warnings season is coming, best to get short or get out. That?s in an ideal world. In the crooked world of Wall Struck the real momentum trends are never discussed.?

 

Today?s The Wall Struck Journal provided more evidence of HedgeHog failure, and some ?heavy hitters? like Soros are getting burned by investing in these Hot Money accounts. This time, it was Buddha?s Tokyo X-Box gamer at the controls.

 

?George Soros is among the investors who will experience losses as a result of the implosion of Eifuku, the $300 million Tokyo-based hedge fund that collapsed earlier this month after making huge bets with borrowed money on a limited number of trades. Eifuku, which just weeks ago appeared to be flying high, fell to the ground in just seven trading days, with investors likely to lose all their money. In retrospect, it points to a degree in risk taking by Mr. Koonmen the fund manager, who was making very large leveraged bets with borrowed money. At times his positions were so large that he in effect became the market.?

 

Translation:

 

Koonmen, a former proprietary trader at Lehman Brothers in Tokyo, was desperate to become richer than George Soros by the time he was 30 years old. Imagine having the wealth of Soros and the libido of a 27-year old speedball addict. Koonmen, a champion X-Box gamer, decided to borrow heavily against his Bank of America Prime Brokerage credit lines to HeatMap a handful of heavily shorted stocks to initiate a squeeze. After all, after 34 months in a bear market, he witnessed relentless ?buy the dip? action on the single digit tech stocks. Unfortunately, his positions were so large, he became the market, so after the stocks would run up, they quickly collapsed.

 

The SEC is now on the HedgeHog case. ?The number of hedge funds has doubled to about 7,000 as traders of all stripes have tried their luck as hedge-fund managers.?

 

Translation:

 

Alan Greenspan?s Productivity Miracle has manifested itself by transforming the U.S. Economy from an industrial giant to a Paper PowerTrading Pyramid, where instant wealth can be obtained by pointing and clicking on a computer to game a myriad of option and arbitrage bets.

 

?A number of very visible firms have blown up in recent weeks, adding to fears that deep-seated problems may be brewing. Because many hudge fund managers buy illiquid investments such as derivatives, options, small cap stocks, and convertible securities, valuing these investments can be difficult, making it tempting for managers to place their own valuations on their funds.?

 

Translation:

 

The Global Speculative Sphere remains transfixed on idea of being able to paper trade ad infinitum. Billions of dollars have been shoved into hedge funds which are essentially black holes, with no ability for clients to be able to view an online statement to see how it has performed. Video gamers, former grammar school experts at doctoring up phony report cards, are now operating these funds and printing illusory statements for their clients while they are attempting to HeatMap their way out of blown trades in order to ?catch up? before redemptions start hitting the wires.

 

In the meantime, Al Green?s committee is proposing some ?unconventional measures?.

 

Fed minutes show some members factoring in stimulus by Rachel Koning

Some members of the Federal Reserve's interest-rate setting committee think federal stimulus, accompanied by already low Fed borrowing rates, might accelerate economic activity, according to minutes of the group's December meeting.

 

Translation:

 

FOMC members are starting to panic, and have now actively considered draconian measures to prevent the Multilevel Marketing Pyramid from collapsing. Federal stimulus action is being proposed, which includes direct stock market jamming by investing the Social Security Trust funds into S & P Futures, purchasing of 10-year Treasuries to drive mortage rates down to 3%, and creating new GSE?s like Auto Mae (AUM) and Retail Mac (RTM), to support subprime consumer spending..

 

Note the emergency selling and emergency propping of the U.S. Peso during the a.m. Eager gold buyers were waiting, and we saw a $6 reversal to close gold near the highs once again. And Uncle Buck passed out from the Viagra overdose, selling off into the close.

 

Another phenomenon that maybe Machinehead or somebody can decipher. What is happening in Mexico? The Wall Struck Journal reported today that the Mexican Peso is accelerating to the downside even faster than the U.S. Peso. Exchange rate is now 11 to 1, higher than 1994. Can anybody explain?

 

What?s next on the FEED agenda? Was today?s action the beginning of the next move down, or a fakeout for the bears? We?ll see soon enough.

 

Position Summary:

 

No changes.

 

We are 56% short, 32% long, 12% cash.

 

Half Short:

 

MBI at $50

KLAC at $41

CYMI at $39

NVLS at $35

INTC at $18

MSFT at $56

WHR at $56

INTU at $49

AMGN at $53

CSCO at $14

ORCL at $12

DELL at $25

SBUX at $23

 

Quarter Short:

 

FRE at $68

LEN at $56

COCO at $40

NCEN at $28

CFC at $55

 

Half Long:

 

GG at $11

HL at $4.55

BGO at $1.31

PAAS at $5

DROOY at $3.35

GLG at $9

GSS at $1.72

WHT at $1.05

KGC at $2.35

HMY at $16

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The Fed hasn't yet considered a Starbucks Mae to help us consume enough caffeine to prolong the "productivity miracle" ? :lol:

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thanks mark,great job!

 

lol,crapvision saying when the war is over,corporate spending will double!

 

no wonder people keep holding their shares,people listen to this crap.

 

staying short and happy for now...it was a little scary this morning,but it did not last long

 

 

( just out on crapvision...3.6 bill government pension shortfall,that will collapse too)

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Its far from over (speakers up)

 

we don't hit rock bottom on this leg down until the BPIs go below 25% and even then it may still sink more but it will be time then to tighten stops, reverse and go dong the same crap we shorted on the way down :grin:

 

http://stockcharts.com/gallery?$BPOEX

 

We've gots a loooong way to go.

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MMM is the one holding the DOW aloft. A break of 122.77 opens the door to 120. Suport below that is 116.50+/- followed by 112.00 +/-

 

FIB #'s 108-131 move..........

 

38% 122.77

50% 120.00

62% 117.23

 

119.98 - 129.14 move 62 % retrace is 123.46

 

So you can see that it is a shoestring holding this baby alight

 

Trendline break yeserday with a retest of the underside today. Massive long body black candle engulfed yesterdays hope buyers.

 

Short from 127-128 on this baby........

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Crapvision ran an interview with some person, (I was only half paying attention) discussing a new federal agency to oversee the mutual fund industry. :grin:

 

What a joke...sheep are screwed now for sure.

 

Just what we need, another ineffective, wastefull bureaucratic budget line item..

 

Sorry Doc, trying not to get too political.

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"The Wall Struck Journal reported today that the Mexican Peso is accelerating to the downside even faster than the U.S. Peso. Exchange rate is now 11 to 1, higher than 1994. Can anybody explain?"

 

Low cost, maquiladora, manufacturing in Mexico is being shut down at an unprecedented rate and tranferred to lower cost, more productive, China.

 

Adios Mexico, Ni hao Zhong Guo

 

DBS

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Gold is moving up again. $371+

 

Funny how fagpx is basicaly at the same level as it was when i sold it on 12-31. Buying the metal, shorting the stocks?

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Bogle created the first index funds. It was thought to be a brilliant idea at the time. When this is all over with -- this bear market -- he'll be one of the former heroes who've become villians. Along with Peter Lynch and Abby and the rest of 'em.

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