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IDS World Markets Tues 3rd March 09

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Another hefty down day. All Ords -2.2% with REITS leading the selling, -4.8%, Gold -4.3% and Utilities -3%. There's a couple of greens, Healthcare +1% and IT +0.1%.

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Australia?s Retail Sales Unexpectedly Increase 0.2%


March 3 (Bloomberg) -- Australian retail sales unexpectedly rose in January as households spent more on food and clothing after the central bank cut interest rates and the government gave cash handouts to families.


Retail sales, seasonally adjusted, advanced 0.2 percent from December, when they climbed 3.8 percent, the most in eight years, the Bureau of Statistics said in Sydney today. The median forecast of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 0.5 percent drop.

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Empty Containers Clog South Korea?s Busan Port as Trade Slumps


March 3 (Bloomberg) -- South Korea?s biggest port is running out of room to store shipping containers, said Park Jung Ho, an official at one of Busan?s nine operators. The bigger concern is that the boxes are almost all empty.


Container trade at Busan, the world?s fifth-largest port, has fallen about 40 percent in recent months, said Park, at Busan International Terminal Co. Even by stacking boxes five deep and leasing a nearby lot, he barely has room for the 31,700 containers that have piled up on his wharves.




Mitsui O.S.K. Halts Iron-Ore Ship Orders on Demand


March 3 (Bloomberg) -- Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Ltd., the world?s largest operator of iron-ore vessels, halted new orders for the ships as demand for steel drops.


The company is scrapping up to seven iron-ore carriers and may not renew long-term charter contracts, Masafumi Yasuoka, a senior executive officer at the shipping line, said in an interview in Tokyo yesterday.

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Thanks, AB! I hope you are keeping your rentals full, as I noted your past post about the crash in housing pressure in the mining towns.


I rent out a couple of spare rooms in my house not buildings per se but, yes there are loads of rentals available at the moment. No probs from my end as incoming workers are not keen to lock themselves into leases for one reason or another so rooms are still in demand. I've got a couple of Gen Ys at the moment; one is a Kiwi, motivated, works hard and saves his money but the other one is clueless...


A recent conversation with the latter ran something like this:


:mellow: Wayde: I've got a headache so I don't think I'll go to work today...


<_< AB: So take a painkiller, you can't afford to skip any more work days. There's

a recession coming you know....


:huh: Wayde: What does that mean?


:ph34r: AB: It means that jobs will become scarce and others will be only too keen to step

into your shoes should your employer tire of your unreliability...


;) Wayde: Nah, they'd have to train someone else...


:rolleyes: AB: Trust me, Wayde, a shelf filler in a supermarket does not need a lot

of training....

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the calendar i use ends every 365 days or so, after which a new age begins and lasts about as long.


it's all purdy crazy, i know. :P

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It would not suprise me to see the girliebulls fill Ms. Russell's gap at 383-390.


After that, there's overhead resistance at 395 from the 7 day EMA and the top of the down channel.




If the girliebulls get to 395, think Ms. Russell has a surprise for them.



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Buyers came in after the initial fall but overall the action was fairly weak. All Ords finished -1% with the majority of sectors down to some degree.


Gold slid the most, -5.6% followed by Miners -3% and Materials -2.9%. At the other end, REITS did a bounce, +2.7% and Healthcare closed +1%.


The big miners were both down, BHP -2.4% and RIO -0.5% but it was the golds that took the brunt: Newcrest -5.9%, Newmont -6.9% and Lihir -5.7%.


Oils were reasonably stable: Woodside -0.1%, Santos -1.7% and Caltex +4%.


Asia mixed: China -1.1%, Honkers -2.3%, India +0.2% and Nikkers -0.7%.



Over to UK/Europe:










CAC 40






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Australia Leaves Rate at 3.25% After Recent Cuts


March 3 (Bloomberg) -- Australia?s central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged for the first time in seven months, saying the lowest borrowing costs in four decades and government spending are supporting the economy.


The nation?s currency surged after Governor Glenn Stevens kept the overnight cash rate target at 3.25 percent in Sydney today. Only four of 18 economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast the decision. The rest tipped at least a quarter-point cut.




Australian Current Account Deficit Narrows on Exports


March 3 (Bloomberg) -- Australia?s current-account deficit narrowed in the three months through December as the value of coal exports surged by almost a third. Shipments of raw materials to countries including China are supporting Australia?s economy as a global recession deepens and consumers cut spending on imported goods.


?This may be the last contribution from exports,? said Su-Lin Ong, senior economist at RBC Capital Markets Ltd. in Sydney. ?It reflects the lagged effects of previous coal and iron-ore contracts.?


Today?s report suggests Australia?s fourth-quarter GDP may be positive, which ?is going to look very resilient against all the major economies,? Ong added.

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Provident Financial?s Profit Rises on Loan Demand


March 3 (Bloomberg) -- Provident Financial Plc, the 129- year-old lender to low-income households, said 2008 profit rose 14 percent as the U.K. entered recession, increasing demand for loans marketed by door-to-door salesmen.


Provident, the best-performing lender in the 249-member FTSE ASX Financials Index in 2008, has gained customers as high street banks, including Barclays Plc and Lloyds Banking Group Plc, tightened their lending criteria. The lender expects to weather the U.K.?s worst recession since 1980 because half of its 1.7 million customers are on some form of state benefit.

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ES did lotsa work tonight in the 710-715 area, and formed what looks like a double-top.


So... short again from an average of 713.75. Hoping to pick up 20 points or so.


Europe started off green and is now drifting flat -- we may see something similar here tomorrow morning. I don't think this wave is quite complete yet... not sure if we head up or down first, but at some point soon we'll prolly see a bounce up to around 715 (although the futures may have been it tonight), then we'll head back down and finish off this wave around 675. THEN we should get one last good tradeable bounce (to 780ish?) before we head lower again (580 is my working target at the moment) and finally bottom.



That's my best guess anyway. Not sure though, 'cause the minuette count is somewhat hazy here, as is my brain (or what's left of it) -- I need sleep.

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