Charmin Posted February 28, 2009 Report Share Posted February 28, 2009 Our hedge is 1000. Once you step into the world on the other side you get to ransack all the refrigerators and pack it in for a long winters sleep in your hollowed out log. but at the same time there is too safe logs to pile into at the moment. "The uncertainty expressed over the threat of a deep US recession and the third CitiGroup bail-out drove the dollar index to a three year high. Apparently, the dollar has maintained some of its safe haven status." Kathy Lien http://www.gftforex.com/resources/analysis...st=Kathy%20Lien Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GRINCH Posted February 28, 2009 Report Share Posted February 28, 2009 "Grinch, I love reading Jim Willie. It sends shivers down my spine." -Charm Rob Kirby seems to scare me more. Maybe some others too. This missive is being yanked. Hope it still prints. Clear thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearvest Posted February 28, 2009 Report Share Posted February 28, 2009 XAU:Targets for March. Summary: down to mid-March, up thereafter. I believe that a 5 wave pattern off the October lows completed on February 17th in a "wedge" or ending diagonal. A 5th wave ending diagonal is a sign of weakness. Thus, the correction should be robust. The likeliest form of corrective pattern is an abc. the "a" and "c" waves are impulsive. The "b" wave is listless. The sharp decline that ended Thursday appears to be the completed "a" wave. The next move, already begun, is "b". It could take the form of a bearish 3 or 5 day flag. Resistance is at 125 to 127.50. Thereafter, an impulse down into mid-March should follow. On a vanilla t.a. basis, the measured move for a wedge breakdown is a 100% retracement. That would be to wave 4 of the large impulse up. Two other technical factors favour a decline to 100 or so. First, it is a 50% retracement of the October/February rally. Second, there's an unfilled gap right at the 100 mark going back to last December. The key will be to watch daily Stochastics. I'm looking for a double dip to confirm the abc pattern. It's a third of the way finished. Step 2 is to see the fast line move above 20 but stay under 50 (the "b" wave). The bottom is put in with a 2nd decline below 20 (the "c" wave). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted February 28, 2009 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2009 If one was using a channel I'd place Dover Sole on the XAU at 110 http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1235857885.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgentSmith Posted March 1, 2009 Report Share Posted March 1, 2009 Next full moon March 11: Full Moon Dates I like the broads to rally here. A whole lot of bear high-fiving going on. Some very cheap out of the money calls (3-4 months out) in FAS/DIG may work very well (assuming we are/have bottomed short-term here). On the spikes down both Thu & Fri end of day I picked some up for DIG. I will be getting some for FAS Monday morning (small amounts of capital that can have big return). When I look at $BKX, UYG, FAS, well .. I can't see much more being squeezed out of them (without a corrective move first). They remind of the 90-95% declines in juniors on the $CDNX. Oil is forming a nice rhino horn, there is quite a bit more upside left here before a long sideways/down consolidation. The dollar/UUP is just about spent .. finishing last wave up. What I'd like to see DIG do: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ageka Posted March 1, 2009 Report Share Posted March 1, 2009 If one was using a channel I'd place Dover Sole on the XAU at 110 http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1235857885.png What a coincidence I got 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ageka Posted March 1, 2009 Report Share Posted March 1, 2009 On the montly candle chart we still could go for a 6 months extension or down If we go down the most likely bottom is week of april 6 th If we go down brutally week march 9th or week march 23 rd are my favourite candidates In summury next week I am in selling mode and may go into buying mode thereafter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dharma Posted March 1, 2009 Report Share Posted March 1, 2009 there is nothing new, these cycles will repeat until we get into the parabolic. i am a buyer but not yet. i tend to agree w/bvs 100xau. but i am fluid, i use the wilder 9bar rsi and when we get the double dip Dover Sole. i will buy. i am not looking for much until the 4th quarter. the crop harvest below normal in china and australia is something to keep in mind. farmers almanac is looking for smaller harvests in north america. stay tuned. this is all a process, from the dollar being as good as gold. to being distrusted now. this trend will grow and gather momo. its a process. for me this all about protection. no fiat currency has ever lasted and the dollar has stretched the life of fiats. i am looking for 5-6k. so obviously, its a ways down the road. dharma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgentSmith Posted March 1, 2009 Report Share Posted March 1, 2009 there is nothing new, these cycles will repeat until we get into the parabolic. i am a buyer but not yet. i tend to agree w/bvs 100xau. but i am fluid, i use the wilder 9bar rsi and when we get the double dip Dover Sole. i will buy. i am not looking for much until the 4th quarter. the crop harvest below normal in china and australia is something to keep in mind. farmers almanac is looking for smaller harvests in north america. stay tuned. this is all a process, from the dollar being as good as gold. to being distrusted now. this trend will grow and gather momo. its a process. for me this all about protection. no fiat currency has ever lasted and the dollar has stretched the life of fiats. i am looking for 5-6k. so obviously, its a ways down the road. dharma I like HUI 260 for a nice tradeable move up...followed by the C leg down. Forget China, Australia, we're screwed here. California State of Emergency - DROUGHT. I'm still making preparations for the Phils, just ordered this water purifier on a m2m recommendation. This has scary implications: % fruits/vegetables that come from Cali.... While California leads the nation in strawberry production, it also grows a large percentage of other crops. Among them: ?Artichokes: 19 percent ?Asparagus: 55 percent ?Broccoli: 93 percent ?Cabbage: 22 percent ?Carrots: 89 percent ?Celery: 94 percent ?Garlic: 86 percent ?Lettuce: 78 percent ?Cantaloupe: 54 percent ?Honeydew: 73 percent ?Onions: 27 percent ?Bell Peppers: 47 percent ?Spinach: 18 percent ?Tomatoes: 94 percent ?Almond: 99 percent ?Apricots: 95 percent ?Avocados: 84 percent ?Strawberries: 90 percent ?Dates: 82 percent ?Figs: 98 percent ?Grapes: 88 percent ?Kiwi: 97 percent ?Lemons: 89 percent ?Nectarines: 93 percent ?Olives: 100 percent ?Peaches: 76 percent ?Pistachios: 96 percent ?Plums: 93 percent ?Walnuts: 99 percent ?Honey: 18 percent ?Milk and cream: 21 percent I agree with Ageka regarding taking this opp. to sell more PMs this week. I have held onto some of my favs but I'm a bit worried about these too, even if a $75 drop in gold is really not a big deal to them (in particular my french connection pair mto.v / mdn.to). I don't feel a move in the broads will be long-lived at all...I just want a few days. I'm very excited about the opportunities coming up to buy PMs cheap again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dharma Posted March 1, 2009 Report Share Posted March 1, 2009 i understand and appreciate folks wanting to avoid pain. for me, i saw when gold broke above 400 in sept 79 it went straight up to 850 in january. most folks missed the move they didnt have time or a pullback to reload. its a tricky biz. and i can live w/corrections, but i couldnt live w/missing the move that i have planned so long for. dharma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted March 1, 2009 Report Share Posted March 1, 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ageka Posted March 1, 2009 Report Share Posted March 1, 2009 i understand and appreciate folks wanting to avoid pain. for me, i saw when gold broke above 400 in sept 79 it went straight up to 850 in january. most folks missed the move they didnt have time or a pullback to reload. its a tricky biz. and i can live w/corrections, but i couldnt live w/missing the move that i have planned so long for. dharma For starters I went down 15 000 dollars last week after all the selling I did and that was more then I ever sold I don't need that crap anymore of loosing so much on paper in one week I don't loose sleep over it but I sell some more paper next week and buy back on a 20% dive If it goes straight up I will say alleluah brother I got my goldcoins and my base of goldshares I don't care much any more for opportunity losses Avoiding real losses is the name of the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted March 2, 2009 Author Report Share Posted March 2, 2009 What a coincidence I got 108 Well, I was using inferior eyes and a crude assessment of the lines on my chart. Meanwhile Technical speculator has some expections for March. "The U.S. dollar, which is buried under more than $11 trillion of national debt now (the prime driving force for commodities at the moment), is expected to trade lower throughout March and into April. Models (see Chart 2 on page 2) are indicating downward pressure for the next six to seven weeks, with a target of $0.80 to $0.81" http://www.technicalspeculator.com/newslet...;recipient=4719 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lucy Posted March 2, 2009 Report Share Posted March 2, 2009 i understand and appreciate folks wanting to avoid pain. for me, i saw when gold broke above 400 in sept 79 it went straight up to 850 in january. most folks missed the move they didnt have time or a pullback to reload. its a tricky biz. and i can live w/corrections, but i couldnt live w/missing the move that i have planned so long for. dharma That's always been my biggest fear, after holding for these nine years it would be my luck to be out and miss the takeoff!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted March 2, 2009 Author Report Share Posted March 2, 2009 Maybe you can explain to us why GOE is acting like it is. http://www.darwinsfinance.com/gold-etn-goe...nth-what-gives/ Chart, but I sure would've liked that return for Feb. http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1235961739.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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